New official NPC thread (August polls coming, campaigning open)

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I think it is fair for the GM to make such decisions if they don't contradict aspects that were already established. Stories like these - which will inevitably effect all parties negatively some day - bring a nice spin to the game and make the world we are playing in seem way more alive and dynamic. Of course, a party leadership doesn't like it when a local officeholder misbehaves, but in reality that happens all the time. Reacting to such events is a salient part of being a real politician, so I think that such events are very good for the game.

[Former President tack50]

Honestly if people are going to start playing the "Actually our candidate isn't racist cause he/she is black"; Peanut should just generate an RNG list of the race of all the current governors or something; weighted to the US population (so something like 13% of governors, or around 6-7, would be black)

It would also be incredibly disappointing if it came to that; I don't think a candidate's race should matter but what do I know!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In my view all that matters is Labor gets its own fair share of damaging scandals. If some Feds are racists and covid deniers then some Laborites must be corrupt union thugs or have links to organised crime and some DAers and Liberals must be misogynistic sex pests or corrupt lobbyists.
Though in retrospect it might have been a good idea to introduce the new scandals with one each for Labor and the Feds, just to stave off the silly bias pontifications right out of the gate.

[Peanut]

If some Feds are racists and covid deniers then some Laborites must be corrupt union thugs or have links to organised crime and some DAers and Liberals must be misogynistic sex pests or corrupt lobbyists.

Hahahahahahahahaha ohohohohohoho

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

some Laborites must be corrupt union thugs or have links to organised crime

I for one would relish the opportunity to make a spirited defense of Governor Jimmy Hoffa. It would be great fun!

[Peanut]

So as I said on Discord, my session timed out while posting the beautiful NPC update with writeups for each state and I lost most of it

This is, of course, a very complex post to make (especially since, as we're only ten days out from campaigns ending, I wanted to take into consideration campaigning for today's update, as I mentioned to OBD, I believe.) However, while I expected to post this update first, I also need to get a COVID update done, so my priority right now is that. The NPC one will be worked on as soon as I stop being mad at myself for not using Google Docs, and I really, really apologize for its delay.

Overall, I think parties are being smart in their campaigns so far - some (like the Liberals) have taken what I believe to be risky choices in competing for, say, California, while others (like the Feds) are playing it pretty safe. I don't have any complaints right now, and I know you were all excited for the full update which I will post as soon as possible. Polling will take into consideration February election results, registration numbers, August results, events, plus a component of chance.

Thank you, and again, I am really very sorry for the delay!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

For the record: Fianna Frémont will endorse the Peace & Labor—Beauty & Bread slate in all states up for election Frémont in this and future cycles.

[Peanut]

Atlasia Elects: March 2021
The state of play



Puerto Rico, with its Federalist Governor and legislative plurality, not shown on the map. Florida stands for Miami. Shading signifies party strength: from full control of the legislature and executive to split government.

Active events:

• Positive reaction to DA legislative efforts in the South has created a favorable climate in those elections.
• Waning controversy over the statements made by Governor DeSantis of Virginia has hit Fed numbers in the South, but the issue is receding from the forefront.

With less than a week to go before the end of campaigning, and nine days until election day in Atlasia, citizens in many states, from cold Alaska to warm Puerto Rico, prepare to head to the polls to elect their new Governors, Mayors and state legislatures.


The state of the states:

Alaska:

Governor: David Keenainak, with a legislative plurality in both chambers.

Administration's popularity: 39% - 54%

Polling:

Labor Party (inc.)  -  24%
Democratic Alliance  -  23%
Liberal Party  -  20%
Federalist Party  -  9%

Alaska has, quite simply, been rendered ungovernable by a coalition of parties in its legislature that has blocked most of Governor Keenainak's policies. The state voted for Independent candidate Young Texan by a sizeable margin last presidential election, which gives another headache to party leaders as Labor tries to keep control of the state executive mansion, and to increase their numbers in the legislature. Meanwhile, opposition parties try to take advantage of the state's base partisanship and the Governor's unpopularity to deliver the coup de grace to Alaska Labor. It has apparently become a meme in some internet communities to tease the Governor's withdrawal from the race. The reasons for this are unknown.

California:

Governor: Nancy Feinstein, with a trifecta.

Administration's popularity: 57% - 40%

Polling:
Labor Party (inc.)  -  43%
Democratic Alliance  -  28%
Liberal Party  -  11%
Federalist Party  -  11%

The state government's popularity, and general public approval of the regional government in Denver, and favorable federal results for the Labor Party, have combined to make the California race one with a considerable Labor advantage. Campaigning in the state has been scarce, though, and the front has been very quiet - while the Governor's race may be tough to pull off for other parties, Labor still hasn't sealed the deal for it and particularly the legislative elections.

South Dakota:

Governor: Faith Spotted Eagle, with a trifecta.

Administration's popularity: 69% - 22%

Polling:
Labor Party (inc.)  -  50%
Liberal Party  -  21%
Democratic Alliance  -  10%
Federalist Party  -  9%

Governor Faith Spotted Eagle, along with a strong Labor majority in the state legislature, have taken full advantage of their state's partisan lean (having cast a huge majority of its votes for the Labor nomiinee in the last presidential election) to draft policy supported both by the people of South Dakota and the regional government in Denver. The opposition's hope in this race, however daunting it seems, is to keep hammering on issues that matter to the state that the parties may feel have gone unadressed both in Denver and in Pierre.


Indiana:

Governor: Peter Donnelly, with a legislative plurality in both chambers.

Administration's popularity: 40% - 51%

Polling:
Liberal Party  -  26%
Federalist Party  -  25%
Democratic Alliance  -  21%
Labor Party  -  19%

In the most vulnerable of the 3 Midwestern DA states up for election this month, the Liberals have shot to the top of the polls as Governor Donnelly has not proven particularly adept at governing a state where his party is not the most popular, or where his allies hold just over one third of the seats in both chambers of the legislature. The laser-focused campaign of the Liberal Party has helped them become the probable favorites in the race, but as always, the Hoosier State is headed towards a close race.

Michigan:

Governor: Abdul Elliott, with a legislative plurality in both chambers.

Administration's popularity: 50% - 44%

Polling:
Democratic Alliance  -  36%
Federalist Party  -  30%
Labor Party  -  22%
Liberal Party  -  10%

Michigan is an exception among other states as, despite it being a relatively close state, most voters seem to have made up their minds. Governor Elliott is above water in popularity, and the state that gave most of its vote to YT last presidential election and is one of the weak points of Labor registration strength in Lincoln also has the Federalist Party in a close second place. However, there is still a week to go, and the race is volatile: other parties see a chance to grow, and knock their rivals down a peg, in the closely-divided race, where due to high undecideds one party's gains will necessarily translate to another's loss.

Wisconsin:

Governor: Mark Baldwin, with a legislative plurality in both chambers.

Administration's popularity: 45% - 45%

Polling:
Democratic Alliance  -  25%
Labor Party  -  20%
Liberal Party  -  20%
Federalist Party  -  20%

Obvious close state is obvious: with what is among the narrowest legislative pluralities in the nation, Governor Baldwin has tried to govern his traditionally competitive state by relying on a broad legislative coalition that has had mixed effects. Despite the DA starting with an advantage, campaigning in the Midwest has been very strong and well-received, and who will govern Wisconsin is still anyone's guess.


Nyman:

Governor: Caroline Spanier, with a legislative plurality.

Administration's popularity: 53% - 45%

Polling:
Federalist Party  -  40%
Labor Party  -  35%
Democratic Alliance  -  14%
Liberal Party  -  8%

Governor Spanier's a popular one, who has weathered recent events and navigated a closely-divided Council to govern Nyman. In a relatively strong region for her party, the campaign still has a ways to go, but the Governor is a popular one.

Oklahoma:

Governor: Federalist, with a legislative plurality.

Administration's popularity: 45% - 45%

Polling:
Federalist Party  -  36%
Labor Party  -  36%
Democratic Alliance  -  20%
Liberal Party  -  4%

The Federalist administration in Oklahoma benefits from strong regional and federal showings, but the basically even split in popularity for the state government opens avenues for other parties to take advantage: mainly, the Labor Party has secured a tie in the polls for the state's elections, but the DA also has room for growth thanks to their current high popularity due to regional events. It remains to be seen whether the DA can keep the good times rolling, Labor can take over a fifth Governorship in the South, or the Federalists can hold on to the government in Oklahoma.

Puerto Rico:

Governor: Teresa Sánchez, with a legislative plurality.

Administration's popularity: 50% - 43%

Polling:
Federalist Party  -  24%
Labor Party  -  20%
Democratic Alliance  -  15%
Liberal Party  -  11%

While Governors Sánchez and LT are popular in Puerto Rico, the (for all intents and purposes) radio silence in the island campaign-wise has resulted in an astounding 30% of undecideds: the lack of campaigning in the state has produced a very hard to gauge situation in the state beyond Governor Sánchez's popularity and base partisanship.

South Carolina:

Governor: James R. Cunningham, with a trifecta.

Administration's popularity: 50% - 46%

Polling:
Democratic Alliance  -  35%
Federalist Party  -  25%
Labor Party  -  23%
Liberal Party  -  15%

The DA's regional popularity, skilled governing, and strong base due to his prior landslide has kept Governor Cunningham up in the polls. However, as other parties grow more aggressive in contesting South Carolina, it's not likely the DA wins due to mere inertia. In such a closely-divided state, the slightest difference in demonstrated effort can (and will) make the election, despite the DA's strong starting point.

Miami:

Mayor: María Díaz

Administration's popularity: 55% - 43%

Polling:
Federalist Party  -  30%
Labor Party  -  28%
Democratic Alliance  -  26%
Liberal Party  -  9%

Mayor Díaz enjoys high popularity and a comfortable national and regional environment, but the DA's reluctance to campaign in the city so far (combined with multiple Federalist events, as well as Spanish-language Labor campaigning) have resulted in both the Feds and Labor overtaking the government party in the polls. Will Mayor Díaz say gracias or adiós? It all comes down to the next few days of campaigning, in a city with high undecideds.

[Peanut]

Right!

So first of all, this takes into account random chance, previous state and federal results, and campaigning done these last few days. I am really looking forward to more spirited campaigning: the South has been most particularly passed over (most egregiously Puerto Rico!), and I think, despite the generally high-quality campaigning on all sides, there definitely is room for improvement.

My plan is to post polling updates these next few days to reflect changes in position and undecideds' movement, where applicable. After results are posted at the end of the month, I'll provide feedback and open a thread for you guys to comment: this is the first round of elections I'm simulating and I'm adding some stuff to Lumine's formula and removing other things, so for now many factors are kind of experimental. I want to ask you before April what you think we can add and remove regarding NPC elections, but for the time being, best of luck in March!

[Peanut]

Another thing: while regular campaigning will end next Saturday, I will allow each party to post one event in the state of their choosing on Sunday, March 28th. A sort of official closing rally, it will be graded and weighed more heavily than a normal event: sort of a way for everyone to tell, without room for error, where each party's priorities lie.

[Sestak]

Atlasia Elects: March 2021
The state of play

Pax landslide! Thank you Atlasia!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

BTW SC has a DA trifecta. I think that might factor into your favorability ratings since we’d be able to get more done.

[Peanut]

BTW SC has a DA trifecta. I think that might factor into your favorability ratings since we’d be able to get more done.

Thank you! I'll correct the post to reflect that.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I wonder that Labor should not have a majority in the Alaska HoC at least, if not the Senate as well? We were only one seat away from the majority before the Green collapse, and Lumine made clear that well over 80% of the Green MPs defected to Labor —it would be extraordinary if none of the Alaska Greens joined Labor after September 2020.

[Peanut]

I wonder that Labor should not have a majority in the Alaska HoC at least, if not the Senate as well? We were only one seat away from the majority before the Green collapse, and Lumine made clear that well over 80% of the Green MPs defected to Labor —it would be extraordinary if none of the Alaska Greens joined Labor after September 2020.

Hmm. That is interesting. I will keep it in mind, maybe not for these numbers, but for the upcoming Citizen's Dispatch update and future rounds. Thank you for bringing it up.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I wonder that Labor should not have a majority in the Alaska HoC at least, if not the Senate as well? We were only one seat away from the majority before the Green collapse, and Lumine made clear that well over 80% of the Green MPs defected to Labor —it would be extraordinary if none of the Alaska Greens joined Labor after September 2020.

Lumine's numbers for nationwide stuff still had them there, so I'd assume they're in coalition with Labor, but not part of labor?

[RC (a la Frémont)]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to April NPC election Alliance

Leaders of the Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to the following conditions for the current cycle of NPC elections:

1.) Fusion tickets
- The Democratic Alliance and its candidate, Henry Edmondson, have agreed to withdraw from the Oklahoma Gubernatorial election. Edmondson will now join Labor nominee Hank Boomhauer on a Labor-DA ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.
- The Labor Party and its candidate, Judd Laurel, have agreed to withdraw from the Indiana Gubernatorial election. Laurel will now join Governor Peter Donnelly on a DA-Labor ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.

2.) Preferencing Arrangement
The Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to encourage our voters to second preference each other's candidates in applicable races during the March 2021 cycle.

This agreement will additionally be signed by Labor Party Chair Oregon Blue Dog and Democratic Alliance Chairman Weatherboy.

X ReaganClinton, Founder, Democratic Alliance

[OBD]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to April NPC election Alliance

Leaders of the Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to the following conditions for the current cycle of NPC elections:

1.) Fusion tickets
- The Democratic Alliance and its candidate, Henry Edmondson, have agreed to withdraw from the Oklahoma Gubernatorial election. Edmondson will now join Labor nominee Hank Boomhauer on a Labor-DA ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.
- The Labor Party and its candidate, Judd Laurel, have agreed to withdraw from the Indiana Gubernatorial election. Laurel will now join Governor Peter Donnelly on a DA-Labor ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.

2.) Preferencing Arrangement
The Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to encourage our voters to second preference each other's candidates in applicable races during the March 2021 cycle.

This agreement will additionally be signed by Labor Party Chair Oregon Blue Dog and Democratic Alliance Chairman Weatherboy.

X ReaganClinton, Founder, Democratic Alliance

X OBD, Vice President and Labor Party Chair

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to April NPC election Alliance

Leaders of the Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to the following conditions for the current cycle of NPC elections:

1.) Fusion tickets
- The Democratic Alliance and its candidate, Henry Edmondson, have agreed to withdraw from the Oklahoma Gubernatorial election. Edmondson will now join Labor nominee Hank Boomhauer on a Labor-DA ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.
- The Labor Party and its candidate, Judd Laurel, have agreed to withdraw from the Indiana Gubernatorial election. Laurel will now join Governor Peter Donnelly on a DA-Labor ticket as its nominee for Lieutenant Governor.

2.) Preferencing Arrangement
The Labor Party and Democratic Alliance have agreed to encourage our voters to second preference each other's candidates in applicable races during the March 2021 cycle.

This agreement will additionally be signed by Labor Party Chair Oregon Blue Dog and Democratic Alliance Chairman Weatherboy.

X ReaganClinton, Founder, Democratic Alliance

X Weatherboy, Chair, Democratic Alliance

[Peanut]

The alliances above has been seen! I'll try posting new polling to reflect the new status in the race.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Clarifying that neither party is dropping from the legislative races in IN or OK, just gubernatorial

[Poirot]

The Labor-DA alliance for March I guess (not April), in number 2 preferencing arrangement, I would like to understand if it's for all states in this cycle that the two parties second preference each other.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The Labor-DA alliance for March I guess (not April), in number 2 preferencing arrangement, I would like to understand if it's for all states in this cycle that the two parties second preference each other.

we will be encouraging our voters in all states to second preference the other party. Of course, we can not control how all voters make their preferences, but we will be making statements and gestures to get our voters to second preference each other.

[Poirot]

What are the campaign limits for the number of events.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Labor has released a late public statement responding to Federalist lies. I hope it receives credit or half-credit, but I wanted to set the record straight anyway.