IA - Victory Insights: Trump at 61%, DeSantis and Pence deadlocked w/o Trump

[VAR]

EDIT: Refer to Mr. Morden’s post.

Trump 61%
-no other candidate breaks 10%-
Pence
Haley
Romney
Cruz
DeSantis
Noem
Pompeo

w/o Trump

DeSantis 25%
Pence 23%
Cruz 15%
Noem 7%
Pompeo 5%
Haley 4%
Romney 1%
Someone else 6%
Undecided 14%

After 2nd alignment

DeSantis 24%
Pence 23%
Cruz 21%

https://www.scribd.com/document/498489924/IowaGOPCaucus2024-PollReport-03-2021

[One Term Floridian]

If Trump can keep these kind of #s up for another 2 years, he’s got the keys to the nomination again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis isn't the right fit, he is gonna have trouble in non Latino states

He ISNOT REAGAN

[Mr. Morden]

Trump 61%
-no other candidate breaks 10%-
Pence
Haley
Romney
Cruz
DeSantis
Noem
Pompeo

I don’t see the exact numbers listed in the doc, but from eyeballing the graph, I think this scenario is something like:

Trump 61%
Pence 8%
Haley 6%
Romney 5%
Cruz 4%
DeSantis 4%
Noem 2%
Pompeo 2%

w/o Trump

DeSantis 25%
Pence 23%
Cruz 15%
Noem 7%
Pompeo 5%
Haley 4%
Romney 1%
Someone else 6%
Undecided 14%

No, I think you’re reading it wrong.  These are not the numbers in the scenario without Trump.  They’re the numbers for 2nd choice amongst Trump supporters in the scenario *with* Trump.  In the scenario without Trump running, the numbers are more like this (again, I’m just getting this from eyeballing the graph on page 4, since they don’t actually list the #s anywhere):

DeSantis 20%
Pence 19%
Cruz 16%
Haley 10%
Noem 7%
Pompeo 6%
Romney 5%

After 2nd alignment

DeSantis 24%
Pence 23%
Cruz 21%

https://www.scribd.com/document/498489924/IowaGOPCaucus2024-PollReport-03-2021

This pollster is pretty clueless about the Iowa caucuses, since they seem to think that the GOP caucus has multiple rounds.  It’s only the Dem. caucuses that have multiple rounds, so there is no “2nd alignment” on the GOP side.

[Mr. Morden]

In any case, this is another piece of evidence that DeSantis-mentum is real.  He was at something like 1 or 2% in every poll as recently as December.  Now he's consistently at least in the "top tier", if not leading, in polls that include him in a scenario without Trump.  That's a pretty significant bump considering how far out we are from the primaries.

[Pericles]

In any case, this is another piece of evidence that DeSantis-mentum is real.  He was at something like 1 or 2% in every poll as recently as December.  Now he's consistently at least in the "top tier", if not leading, in polls that include him in a scenario without Trump.  That's a pretty significant bump considering how far out we are from the primaries.

True, surprised he is doing so well with normal people and has such strong name recognition. Pence didn't stand out as VP though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised Pence is doing as well as he is here.

But yes, the real noteworthy thing about this poll is that DeSuckass has clearly proven himself despicable enough for the party's primary voters to be a Republican rising star after all. Whether it's him or Trump being nominated, 2024 is going to be agonizing.

[BlueSwan]

If Trump can keep these kind of #s up for another 2 years, he’s got the keys to the nomination again

He already has the keys. I'm not the type to ever say "it is over" and certainly not 3 years before the primaries, but there needs to be one hell of a game changer if Trump is not to win it if he runs.

Trump is not a normal politician. The GQP is locked in a cult of personality, where your level of diehard support for Trump is all that matters. Short of prison, I don't see any scandal that could sink Donald Trump.

What makes it impossible for anybody else is that you can't run against Trump. When your main selling point is that you are a Trumpist, how could you run against the God Emporor himself? You would be a traitor in the eyes of the death eaters.

So basically I see only three likely scenarios right now:

a) Trump runs and easily wins. Barely anybody will even dare to challenge him. It will be like Hillary 2016 without Bernie Sanders.

b) Trump decides against running for whatever reason. Maybe he decides that he is tired of losing.

c) Trump is in jail or dead, so he can't run.


------

So if I have to envision a scenario where Trump runs yet doesn't win, I think a number of things would have to happen. The most important would probably the GQP running a lot of Trumpists in 2022 who lose BADLY and an overall terrible result for the GQP. Also, something would have to happen that makes Trump fade from the headlines and media attention, which seems unlikely. Really important is also the emergence of a new leader figure that inspires some of the same religious devotion that Donald Trump does. Ron DeSantis seems like the most likely here, but then again, not really.

Anyway, I think this last fantasy scenario is not even in the same league of likelihood as the three top options.

[One Term Floridian]

If Trump can keep these kind of #s up for another 2 years, he’s got the keys to the nomination again

Trump is not a normal politician. The GQP is locked in a cult of personality, where your level of diehard support for Trump is all that matters. Short of prison, I don't see any scandal that could sink Donald Trump.

At this rate, even a prison sentence might not matter to these cultists.., he’d run as the next Eugene Debs if he got locked up lol