Are inner cities trending R?

[AGA]

Are inner cities like in the South Side of Chicago, the Bronx, Baltimore, etc. trending R long term? Most inner city areas, especially heavily Latino ones, swung R, and I would argue that it is a long term trend due to broader educational trends. Educated suburbs are trending D, and uneducated urban areas R. They also swung R in 2016, although I would mostly chalk that up to Obama being a phenomenal fit for them.

[One Term Floridian]

A lot of dead cat bounces I'm sure

[kwabbit]

A lot of dead cat bounces I'm sure

Dead cat bounce implies that the inner cities have been trending D and this election was an aberration.

The inner cities have been trending R over the last few cycles and probably will continue to do so in the future. A few factors have been causing this and will continue to cause it. The first, that AGA already mentioned, is education becoming a predictor in one's voting patterns. The GOP gains with non-college educated voters will help them with the non-college educated non-White voters in the inner city.

Another pattern is the weakening power of the Black church. Black churchgoers are more Democratic than their non-churchgoing counterparts, and as the Black electorate becomes less religious, the D percentage will go down.

These effects are quite small, but they might make the Black vote go from 95% Dem to 85% Dem long term. It's been an extraordinary feat of political organization for Black voters to have been so uniformly Dem, and it's something that can't last forever. Like just how ridiculous Dem performance has been with Black voters is not appreciated. And then you had Obama getting 98% in 2008, even crazier.

[Non Swing Voter]

No. 

a) Trump barely improved in any of these places.

b) Did it occur to atlas that the same way Biden was trying to cut his losses in rural areas, perhaps the Trump campaign was doing the same in urban areas?  I don't think rural areas are trending towards Democrats even though many swung toward Biden.

[David Hume]

A lot of dead cat bounces I'm sure

Dead cat bounce implies that the inner cities have been trending D and this election was an aberration.

The inner cities have been trending R over the last few cycles and probably will continue to do so in the future. A few factors have been causing this and will continue to cause it. The first, that AGA already mentioned, is education becoming a predictor in one's voting patterns. The GOP gains with non-college educated voters will help them with the non-college educated non-White voters in the inner city.

Another pattern is the weakening power of the Black church. Black churchgoers are more Democratic than their non-churchgoing counterparts, and as the Black electorate becomes less religious, the D percentage will go down.

These effects are quite small, but they might make the Black vote go from 95% Dem to 85% Dem long term. It's been an extraordinary feat of political organization for Black voters to have been so uniformly Dem, and it's something that can't last forever. Like just how ridiculous Dem performance has been with Black voters is not appreciated. And then you had Obama getting 98% in 2008, even crazier.

I would say Black churchgoers are more likely to go out to vote, but not sure if they vote more D than average Black. Churchgoers trend R in general.

[Skill and Chance]

Lean yes, but it's not a big deal yet.  Might make the EC/US House playing field more even in the long run, though?

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's likely a lot of these places have hit their peak under the Obama era and are returning to earth. Even looking now the fact that these areas with such massive populations still vote with a margin like those are insane.

[sting in the rafters]

It's likely a lot of these places have hit their peak under the Obama era and are returning to earth. Even looking now the fact that these areas with such massive populations still vote with a margin like those are insane.

Exactly. It's impossible to understate just how effective the Obama turnout machine was when he was on the ballot. My little brother interned for a county commissioner's campaign in 2019 and he told me that the party operatives worship the ground he walks on.

Another factor for 2020 in particular is there is that ideological polarization in particular is at an all-time high. One of the many reasons why Trump did so well with Cubans is nonwhite conservatives started voting like white conservatives.

[Del Tachi]

The first, that AGA already mentioned, is education becoming a predictor in one's voting patterns

Divergent trends among college/non-college-educated voters will be one of the most interesting trends to follow of the current political era.

Research shows that more educated people are not any better at contextualizing or processing political information (i.e., if you show college-educated and non-college-educated people the same political speech, they will understand it and react to it in pretty much the same way.)  That's why (pretty transparently racist) concerns about "disinformation" running rampant in poor Black and Latino communities have nothing to do with the growing education gap.  Rather, educated people are more likely to live in a social environment where things like civic participation, empiricism, and political correctness are normatively valued.  As the Democratic Party has reorganized its political identity around defending these values in response to Trump, it's pulling college-educated voters with it while simultaneously turning off those without the right socialization needed to pick up on these cues. 

On the other hand, this trend may mostly just be about age (college-educated voters are younger as a whole)

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The first, that AGA already mentioned, is education becoming a predictor in one's voting patterns

Divergent trends among college/non-college-educated voters will be one of the most interesting trends to follow of the current political era.

Research shows that more educated people are not any better at contextualizing or processing political information (i.e., if you show college-educated and non-college-educated people the same political speech, they will understand it and react to it in pretty much the same way.)  That's why (pretty transparently racist) concerns about "disinformation" running rampant in poor Black and Latino communities have nothing to do with the growing education gap.  Rather, educated people are more likely to live in a social environment where things like civic participation, empiricism, and political correctness are normatively valued.  As the Democratic Party has reorganized its political identity around defending these values in response to Trump, it's pulling college-educated voters with it while simultaneously turning off those without the right socialization needed to pick up on these cues.  

On the other hand, this trend may mostly just be about age (college-educated voters are younger as a whole)

IMO much of the concern about "disinformation" in nonwhite voter circles is coming from nonwhite voters, observers, and activists themselves who are more familiar with these communities than their white/Anglo counterparts.

edit: this isn't me making stuff up

https://twitter.com/MikeRivero89/status/1381374075617021955
https://twitter.com/jentrucle/status/1355600502726086658

I agree that it's insulting to disparage downscale and/or nonwhite voters for not voting the way liberal pundits want them to, but there are very real concerns with the proliferation of fake news and alternative media bubbles that are keeping us divided- regardless of who's in charge.

To answer the OP- yes, and it's inevitable in the long run.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A lot of dead cat bounces I'm sure

Dead cat bounce implies that the inner cities have been trending D and this election was an aberration.

The inner cities have been trending R over the last few cycles and probably will continue to do so in the future. A few factors have been causing this and will continue to cause it. The first, that AGA already mentioned, is education becoming a predictor in one's voting patterns. The GOP gains with non-college educated voters will help them with the non-college educated non-White voters in the inner city.

Another pattern is the weakening power of the Black church. Black churchgoers are more Democratic than their non-churchgoing counterparts, and as the Black electorate becomes less religious, the D percentage will go down.

These effects are quite small, but they might make the Black vote go from 95% Dem to 85% Dem long term. It's been an extraordinary feat of political organization for Black voters to have been so uniformly Dem, and it's something that can't last forever. Like just how ridiculous Dem performance has been with Black voters is not appreciated. And then you had Obama getting 98% in 2008, even crazier.

I would say Black churchgoers are more likely to go out to vote, but not sure if they vote more D than average Black. Churchgoers trend R in general.

Not super related to the exact point of the thread, but I've occasionally wondered how the handful of non-whites in mostly white, evangelical churches vote as a whole.  In my experience, they seem to be a Lean/Likely R group, but I also go to a very conservative church.