How would the GA runoffs have gone if Perdue and Loeffler ran as a Susan Collins type of Republican?

[VBM]

Title.

[ElectionsGuy]

They would've done worse. I know many on here buy into the politico DC establishment thinking that more moderate = more electable, but the reality is you have to please the base enough to get them to turnout, and had they turned away from Trump they would've not gotten the turnout they got.

[VBM]

They would've done worse. I know many on here buy into the politico DC establishment thinking that more moderate = more electable, but the reality is you have to please the base enough to get them to turnout, and had they turned away from Trump they would've not gotten the turnout they got.

Makes sense. A lot of Trumpers didn’t turn out because of the “rigged election” narrative, so even more probably would have sat it out if “RINOs” were running

[GALeftist]

If they were even entertaining the notion of voting to convict Trump, he would have tweeted about how much they sucked and that would have been that.

[Young Conservative]

IMO, the biggest factor contributing to their loos (other than ATL barrelling toward Dems) was Doug Collins' selfish, awful primary campaign that weekend Loeffler.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IMO, the biggest factor contributing to their loos (other than ATL barrelling toward Dems) was Doug Collins' selfish, awful primary campaign that weekend Loeffler.

The appointed Senator with a thin political background and a COVID-19 scandal would always have faced a significant primary challenge.

[Skill and Chance]

No difference in inelastic GA with the >1% Dem margins.  They might have both done slightly better, but <1% better. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is an impossible hypothetical to consider because Loeffler never would have beat Doug Collins if she didn't try to out sycophant him as she managed to do.

Anyway the runoffs ultimately became a referendum on McConnell and the Republican majority in the Senate in many ways, that wouldn't have changed even if this were to happen. It might even have depressed GOP turnout even if they did pick up a negligible amount of Atlanta suburb votes.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The MAGA Republicans wouldn't vote for them with Trump off the ballot, the turnout dropoff would be even worse for Republicans in the rural part of the state. Ossoff and Warnock do even better, and the only part of the state they would do worse than Biden in would be the Neocon/Neolib White Northern Atlanta Suburbs. Ossoff wins by 2-3 and Warnock by 3-4%.

Make no mistake, The Republican Party is the Party of Donald Trump, and social conservatives ain't voting for a moderate in an off-year runoff election.

[Хahar 🤔]

IMO, the biggest factor contributing to their loos (other than ATL barrelling toward Dems) was Doug Collins' selfish, awful primary campaign that weekend Loeffler.

I find Collins and Loeffler just about equally repulsive, but what exactly about the Collins campaign was selfish? Collins was a member of Congress with strong Republican credentials, a track record in elective office, and the support of the most popular figure among Georgia Republicans: the president. By contrast, Loeffler's qualifications for office consisted of marrying rich and being perceived as "moderate" (a label she cast aside as soon as it became politically inexpedient). I'm not sure why it was selfish for Collins to not want to just concede a Senate seat to an unelected megadonor. It was equally selfish for Loeffler to have requested the appointment in the first place.

I do agree that Collins's campaign was awful; that much seems self-evident given that Loeffler somehow managed to define herself as the real conservative in the race in spite of all the evidence. You can, I suppose, blame Collins for going scorched-earth and then doing such a terrible job of it that he couldn't even win.  That all seems like beating around the bush, though, when the ultimate blame lies with Brian Kemp: if he had just appointed Collins instead of trying to burnish his moderate credentials for 2022 with Loeffler, none of this would have happened.

[Del Tachi]

Trump lost the GOP these two Senate races by insinuating the vote would be rigged; Perdue at least would have won without Trump depressing at least some GOP turnout

Perdue or Loeffler running as explicit "moderates" would have decreased GOP base turnout even further

[DaleCooper]

You have to appeal to the base in a runoff election, it's the only way in a polarized state like Georgia.

[Pollster]

The state is too large and its GOP base is far too conservative/Evangelical for this type of Republican campaign to work unless executed with absolute, 100% pitch-perfection, and even then would probably still require a favorable political climate. And of course neither Perdue nor Loeffler have half the political skills Collins has.