Why hasn't Nassau flipped like Suffolk yet?

[Suburbia]

Nassau hasn't voted Republican since 1988, Suffolk flipped back to red in 2016 and 2020.....why?

[DINGO Joe]

Nassau is more diverse (less white) and actually quite a bit more educated than Suffolk.  Case closed.

[Roll Roons]

Nassau is more diverse (less white) and actually quite a bit more educated than Suffolk.  Case closed.

Also suburbs that are closer to the city center tend to be more Democratic than ones that are further out.

[slothdem]

If anything, it's surprising that Nassau has remained relatively close during this modern alignment. It's a highly educated, fairly diverse county. It will obviously never vote like Westchester, but you would expect it to go the way of Bergen at least.

Can the difference between the three high-population NYC inner suburban counties be purely chalked up to Italians vs WASPs?

[kwabbit]

If anything, it's surprising that Nassau has remained relatively close during this modern alignment. It's a highly educated, fairly diverse county. It will obviously never vote like Westchester, but you would expect it to go the way of Bergen at least.

Can the difference between the three high-population NYC inner suburban counties be purely chalked up to Italians vs WASPs?

I think it's mainly Italians vs. WASPs. Trump has a cultural affinity with Italians that prevented him from cratering in Bergen and Long Island. They are counties you might expect to be won by 25 points but they barely trended D as similar counters racial and education wise swung 10 points from 2012 at least. Trump did well on the Jersey shore despite its wealth and education, again probably from the high percentage of Italians.

[King of Kensington]

Yup, for a county as affluent and educated as Nassau the GOP share is quite high, largely due to the Italian vote.

Note that Trump did better in the NY suburbs than say Chicago suburbs - and I think the Italian  presence that difference.

[King of Kensington]

There's also a large Orthodox and traditional Jewish population in Nassau in the Five Towns and parts of Great Neck.

[King of Kensington]

Looking at Long Island results,

In Nassau North Hempstead (most affluent and most Jewish and Asian) and Hempstead (least white) went D, while outermost Oyster Bay went R.

In Suffolk, mid-county went R (Brookhaven, Smithtown, Riverhead), while the inner and outermost parts went D.

[AGA]

Nassau is more diverse (less white) and actually quite a bit more educated than Suffolk.  Case closed.

Also suburbs that are closer to the city center tend to be more Democratic than ones that are further out.

Interestingly enough, once you get far enough east in Suffolk County, the precincts start to be very Democratic.

[King of Kensington]

How Long Island voted:

https://projects.newsday.com/long-island/how-long-island-voted-2020/?election=2020%20General&position=U.S.%20President&region=United%20States