Was Trump tougher to beat in 2020 than he was in 2016
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  Was Trump tougher to beat in 2020 than he was in 2016
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Question: Which election was it tougher to beat Trump in
#1
2016
 
#2
2020
 
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Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Was Trump tougher to beat in 2020 than he was in 2016  (Read 1158 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: March 07, 2021, 11:59:47 PM »

So in 2016 , the fundamentals were way better for Trump than they were in 2020 along with the fact he ran a better campaign in 2016.

On the other hand, in 2020 he had the power of incumbency which he didn't have in 2016 and he had the GOP behind him in much larger ways in 2020 than  in 2016.


I will say it was easier to beat Trump in 2020 as I think the fundamentals advantage is tougher to deal with than the incumbency advantage.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2021, 12:20:14 AM »

If Trump had any competence dealing with COVID: 2020


As it was:2016


It's really understated how COVID was a golden opportunity for Trump to consolidate his support among independents leading into the election and he completely and utterly botched it in every way imaginable. If he had so much as followed through on the recommendation to send masks to every household and kept his mouth shut, he probably would've won by a narrow margin. Then again, him keeping his mouth shut is too out of character.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2021, 12:49:33 AM »

I think in 2020. It really seemed like the stars aligned for Biden to beat Trump; Biden was on the popular side of the most salient issues, Trump had botched COVID and the response to the BLM movement. Yet Biden barely won, with Trump proving to be much more formidable.

In 2016, it was obvious that the Democrats had a very flawed nominee, maybe the worst they could throw up against Trump. There was Dem fatigue, and Trump had control over populist issues like immigration and trade, yet Trump just barely won.

Although debatable, I think that Biden's victory was a 75 percentile+ outcome. In most playouts of 2020, Trump wins again. In 2016, Trump's victory was a 25 percentile outcome. In most playouts, the Democrat would win.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2021, 01:39:59 AM »

2016 was easier as a lot of Republicans disliked Trump and initially said they wouldn't vote for him, but when push came to shove, many decided to give him a chance hoping he would mature on the job and also appoint good people.  When he failed to do that, some of the reluctant Republicans left.  Also Biden has less negative baggage than Clinton so I think many never Trumpers went for Johnson as disliked Trump but Clinton was a bridge too far, while Biden they could vote for.

Yes Trump did surprisingly well showing how strong his base is, but at end of day unlike previous presidents, he did nothing to try and expand that.  Fact is GOP base on its own is quite resilient so a competent leader could easily pick up the few percentage points they need to win, but Trump doubled down and failed to do that. 

Finally GOP wins when Democrats stay home and Trump was so awful to many Democrats that even many who disliked Biden showed up to get rid of Trump.  Whereas in 2016 some Sander's supporters might have bought idea both were equally bad and it didn't matter whereas by 2020 they didn't feel that way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2021, 07:34:49 AM »

The Insurrectionists didn't happen yet, but no he was not, Hillary lost due to Gary Johnson
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Motorcity
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2021, 09:39:33 AM »

OMG yes

Trump should have won a landslide. He was the incumbent president with a booming economy and a peaceful world stage

Everything went wrong for him in 2020. COVID and BLM were crises that he was  not prepared to deal with. Him getting sick didn't help. Plus COVID helped the Democrats unite behind Biden much faster and cleaner.

In 2016, everything went right for Trump. He ran against a poorly liked Democrat and had help from Russia and FBI and Jill Stein. Biden or Sanders would have whipped his behind in 2016
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2021, 09:49:54 AM »

2020, easily. HRC lost because she was a terrible corrupt robot. Bernie would have beaten Trump easily in 2016.

In 2020, Trump would have won with 290-310 electoral votes if not for COVID or if Trump competently handled COVID.
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