Where are Black Belt Residents Moving?

[walleye26]

The Black Belt in Alabama and Georgia, as well as the Mississippi Delta in MS and Arkansas, are losing population fast. It also looks like in some places, it’s mostly black residents who are moving. Where are these people headed?
My initial guesses are
1) Atlanta Metro
2) DFW or Houston
3) Research Triangle in NC
4) Suburban SC (a combination of Charleston, Greenville, York, and other counties growing rapidly there)
5) Growing Florida metros, like Orlando or Miami.

Does anybody have any hard data or information on this? I’m really curious.

[Sol]

Yeah I think a lot of the time folks are moving to the nearest city--I drew out MS-02 a while back and segmented it up into rural and urban zones--the district has seen an increase in its Black %, but this is entirely down to Jackson--the rural areas have narrowly declined in Black %.

[Torie]

I tend to doubt that blacks are moving where Hispanics are thick on the ground, and that includes south Florida, and it appears to also be the case in Texas. In another decade, it may be impossible to draw a performing black CD in Texas. The DC metro area, and Atlanta, are probably the strongest magnets for them by far. That has made Virginia safe D, and Georgia will be the same in 5 years.

[It’s so Joever]

DC, Atlanta, Greenville, and Charlotte.

[pikachu]

I checked the total change in Black population between 2010-2019 in ~40 counties which I guessed would have large increases and the ones that jumped out the most were Harris, Tarrant, Broward, Dallas, Gwinnett, Clark, Mecklenburg, Maricopa, Fulton, Palm Beach, Orange (FL), and Collin. So, assuming the Southwest ones are California refugees, looks like you were right initially, though add in Charlotte and maybe get rid of the SC counties - if I have it right, the Black population in Charleston County fell during the 2010s and the growth in Greenville and Spartanburg was underwhelming.

[dpmapper]

You assume most new Texans are moving from California, but why wouldn't new residents of Atlanta/Florida/NC be similarly moving from Detroit and Chicago?

[Frodo]

This is where the latest 2020 census numbers can really come in handy.... 

[Sol]

I tend to doubt that blacks are moving where Hispanics are thick on the ground, and that includes south Florida, and it appears to also be the case in Texas. In another decade, it may be impossible to draw a performing black CD in Texas. The DC metro area, and Atlanta, are probably the strongest magnets for them by far. That has made Virginia safe D, and Georgia will be the same in 5 years.

If you look at the data, that doesn't really track--quite a few of the counties pointed out by Pikachu, such as Maricopa or Harris are quite Latino.

[jimrtex]

The Black Belt in Alabama and Georgia, as well as the Mississippi Delta in MS and Arkansas, are losing population fast. It also looks like in some places, it’s mostly black residents who are moving. Where are these people headed?
My initial guesses are
1) Atlanta Metro
2) DFW or Houston
3) Research Triangle in NC
4) Suburban SC (a combination of Charleston, Greenville, York, and other counties growing rapidly there)
5) Growing Florida metros, like Orlando or Miami.

Does anybody have any hard data or information on this? I’m really curious.

It is most likely the closest one with a strong economy.

Historically the greatest migration was typically straight north. Blacks in the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland migrated to Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City.

Blacks in Georgia would also include Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit.

Blacks in Alabama would also include Chicago and Milwaukee, but drop the east coast.

Blacks in Mississippi and Louisiana would focus on Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis.

Blacks in Arkansas might include Kansas City.

California was primarily a destination from areas further west.

It would be easier to move north because you would be leaving the South, you can travel by rail, and there would be relatives and neighbors who would help with providing housing and finding jobs.

Here is county-to-county migration flows.

County-to-County Migration Flows: 2014-2018 ACS

County-to-county is too granular. It might be possible to analyze county-to-state. A lot of the migration is to nearby counties.

I looked at Dallas County (Selma) because it is the most populous Black Belt county in Alabama (excluding Montgomery).

There were 4975 movers. 3023 (61%) were within the county, 1324 (27%) were within Alabama, but outside Dallas. 623 (13%) were to other states.

You might be able to aggregate all majority Black counties in Alabama, Georgia (south of Macon), etc., and determine migration state and perhaps Metropolitan area.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I tend to doubt that blacks are moving where Hispanics are thick on the ground, and that includes south Florida, and it appears to also be the case in Texas. In another decade, it may be impossible to draw a performing black CD in Texas. The DC metro area, and Atlanta, are probably the strongest magnets for them by far. That has made Virginia safe D, and Georgia will be the same in 5 years.

If you look at the data, that doesn't really track--quite a few of the counties pointed out by Pikachu, such as Maricopa or Harris are quite Latino.

Both of those counties are growing rapidly, so it's possible for their black populations to increase in absolute terms even if they're stable or falling as a percentage of the total.

[Sol]

I tend to doubt that blacks are moving where Hispanics are thick on the ground, and that includes south Florida, and it appears to also be the case in Texas. In another decade, it may be impossible to draw a performing black CD in Texas. The DC metro area, and Atlanta, are probably the strongest magnets for them by far. That has made Virginia safe D, and Georgia will be the same in 5 years.

If you look at the data, that doesn't really track--quite a few of the counties pointed out by Pikachu, such as Maricopa or Harris are quite Latino.

Both of those counties are growing rapidly, so it's possible for their black populations to increase in absolute terms even if they're stable or falling as a percentage of the total.

I looked at some of the Harris County data in DRA and it looks the Black percentage has narrowly risen, which is impressive given the absolute surge in growth.

[I’m not Stu]

Likely to suburban areas.

[DINGO Joe]

As mentioned above, the Census 2020 will answer this.  I doubt they are moving as far as the used to and instead are migrating to "corridors" of growth which exist along the major Interstates. So, not just Atlanta, but Augusta, Macon-Warner Robbins, Valdosta are gaining blacks as they leave rural areas.  There aren't jobs in rural areas and they don't own the farm land so it make sense to go where the jobs are and services are better (or actually exist).

[Del Tachi]

The MS Delta, for example, has been losing population since the 1980s and a lot of it has been going to either Jackson or Memphis.  Hinds and Shelby counties only became majority Black during the 1990s, IIRC, and today they're 73% and 55% Black, respectively.

Because the Black Belt is so poor and uneducated, I don't think you're seeing a lot of Black population loss there to relatively educated metroes like Atlanta or Charlotte.  The population is shifting to more local small-to-medium sized cities like Jackson, Pine Bluff, Monroe (LA), Memphis, etc.  Observationally supporting this idea is that a lot of medium Southern cities are much Blacker than they were 20-to-30 years ago.

[It’s so Joever]

The MS Delta, for example, has been losing population since the 1980s and a lot of it has been going to either Jackson or Memphis.  Hinds and Shelby counties only became majority Black during the 1990s, IIRC, and today they're 73% and 55% Black, respectively.

Because the Black Belt is so poor and uneducated, I don't think you're seeing a lot of Black population loss there to relatively educated metroes like Atlanta or Charlotte.  The population is shifting to more local small-to-medium sized cities like Jackson, Pine Bluff, Monroe (LA), Memphis, etc.  Observationally supporting this idea is that a lot of medium Southern cities are much Blacker than they were 20-to-30 years ago.

This also explains a lot of county trends.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As mentioned above, the Census 2020 will answer this.  I doubt they are moving as far as the used to and instead are migrating to "corridors" of growth which exist along the major Interstates. So, not just Atlanta, but Augusta, Macon-Warner Robbins, Valdosta are gaining blacks as they leave rural areas.  There aren't jobs in rural areas and they don't own the farm land so it make sense to go where the jobs are and services are better (or actually exist).

Very much this. Anecdotally I know people from my region (PeeDew) move to Charlotte, Columbia, but much larger sections to Florence and Myrtle Beach, which are largely suburban/small cities.