What do you think the House composition will look like in 2023?

[ProgressiveModerate]

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just looked over the national map for a bit and I'm having a REALLY hard time seeing the Republicans get more than 235 seats, even in wave like conditions with redistricting in mind.

The GOP hits a pretty hard wall around 230-235,  everything else would have to be fluke wins of some kind.

250 R seats is absurd, not happening.

Exactly. If you’re saying this, you’re basically saying Republicans are either winning seats in places like Indianapolis, Kansas City (KS), and Memphis or cracking those districts. You also have to consider that states like NY and IL will actually be controlled by Ds this time. The GOP may be able to crack Gary, Kansas City (MO), and Nashville, as well as shore up a bit in FL, but tbh, beyond that, there’s not much else they can do to make the map significantly more favorable to them. When in redistricting, you try to pack as many of your opponents into as few districts as possible, it means you’re going to have a much harder ceiling, especially when you’re opponents reliably win a majority of votes nationally in a normal cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?

Democrats are a lot weaker in the House than many here think.  Remember, in 2020 no Republican incumbents lost and Democrat gains in open seats were limited to the NC redraw and GA-07.   

All in all, 77 races in 2020 were decided by 10 points or less.  Democrats won 37 of them.  Factor in GOP gains from redistricting and a +40 night is within the range of possibilities.

While redraws will change what pickup opportunities there are for either party, I'd watch (in addition to the heavy Trump districts like ME-02 or PA-08) places like IL-14, MI-11, AZ-01, TX-15, VA-02 and OR-04 for a GOP comeback.     

Dems lack of pickups and losses in 2020 make a Republican pickup of 40 in 2022 even less likely.  A pickup of 40 would mean Republicans would have 253 seats, which they didn’t even get in 2010 or 2014.  Remember that there are literally only six Dems in Trump districts (redistricting will change this, but not by a huge amount) as opposed to about 50 Dems in McCain districts going into 2010.  Even then, Dems only lost 28 seats that Obama won.

Plus, increased polarization, and many reset gerrymanders that won't have any competative seats to start the decade will make both parties have pretty low ceilings. A lot of the reason the House battleground was so large in 2020 was because several maps had been resolved through courts and several gerrymanders started to fail.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye

Why would NH-01 flip if an anti-gerrymandering bill is passed? You can't draw a district that's any worse than say, Biden +5, without significant gerrymandering.

Because a Biden + 5 district could very realistically flip