Republicans gain 30-40 seats
This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?
Democrats are a lot weaker in the House than many here think. Remember, in 2020 no Republican incumbents lost and Democrat gains in open seats were limited to the NC redraw and GA-07.
All in all, 77 races in 2020 were decided by 10 points or less. Democrats won 37 of them. Factor in GOP gains from redistricting and a +40 night is within the range of possibilities.
While redraws will change what pickup opportunities there are for either party, I'd watch (in addition to the heavy Trump districts like ME-02 or PA-08) places like IL-14, MI-11, AZ-01, TX-15, VA-02 and OR-04 for a GOP comeback.
Dems lack of pickups and losses in 2020 make a Republican pickup of 40 in 2022 even less likely. A pickup of 40 would mean Republicans would have 253 seats, which they didn’t even get in 2010 or 2014. Remember that there are literally only six Dems in Trump districts and thirteen Dems in districts where Biden’s margin was at or less than the national average (redistricting will change this, but not by a huge amount) as opposed to about 50 Dems in McCain districts going into 2010. Even then, Dems only lost 28 seats that Obama won (15 of those in districts where Obama did the same or worse than his national average).
