What do you think the House composition will look like in 2023?
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  What do you think the House composition will look like in 2023?
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Author Topic: What do you think the House composition will look like in 2023?  (Read 1163 times)
Chips
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« on: March 07, 2021, 06:18:55 AM »

My guess is 231 R, 204 D but it could realistically be anywhere from 230 D, 205 R to 240 R, 195 D
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2021, 07:06:52 AM »

Probably about 240 R, 195 D, but we'll have to see what the new maps look like. On the whole, I expect the Republicans to outperform polling.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2021, 07:27:33 AM »

We know Snowlabrador and Chips believe it's R favored, they are the two that believes that just because Rs take over the House, they will wave a magic wand and Covid will disappesr, just remember both Biden and Trump underestimated Covid and we still have Covid

Cook after Redistricting will put out their ratings and we should be patient, it's not R favored and D's are still in this until Cook says that Rs are favored
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2021, 09:50:35 AM »

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye
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here2view
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2021, 10:26:07 AM »

240—195 GOP, so Republicans gain 25-30 seats
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2021, 10:41:09 AM »

Very hard to say as long we ignore how districts lines will look like.

My guess is that GOP will have a net gain of 5 to 30 seats so the average scenario is probably something like 200 D vs 235 R
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VBM
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2021, 11:08:37 AM »

D’s keep control
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2021, 12:05:06 PM »

April fools is next month, silly goose;)
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VBM
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2021, 12:40:01 PM »

The Republicans being guaranteed to win the House is just a bunch of conventional wisdom nonsense. The Democrats are now more popular with the suburbs, which is the highest propensity voting block in midterms, and the Republicans have likely scared away even more suburbanites with their stolen election rhetoric
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beesley
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2021, 12:40:23 PM »

230 R, 205 D or thereabouts.
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2021, 12:43:44 PM »

Depressing.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2021, 03:56:20 PM »


This is pretty much my thinking as well.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2021, 04:05:00 PM »

250 R, 185 D
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2021, 05:52:39 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2021, 06:03:47 PM by MillennialModerate »


GOP 240, Dem 195 (GOP Maj of 45) • 20%
GOP 230, Dem 205 (GOP Maj of 25) • 55%
GOP 225, Dem 210 (GOP Maj of 15) • 75%
GOP 219, Dem 217 (GOP Maj of 2) • 80%
Dem 219, GOP 217 (Dem Maj of 2) •  20%
Dem 225, GOP 210 (Dem Maj of 15) • 10%
Dem 230, GOP 205 (Dem Maj of 25) • 2%
Dem 240, GOP 195 (Dem Maj of 45) • 0%

National Popular Vote: likely AROUND Dem +1%

Best case: Dem +5
Worst case: GOP +3
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2021, 09:15:27 PM »

Something like 235 R - 200 D, though it could end up even worse for Democrats, depending on what the new districts look like.
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VBM
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2021, 10:17:39 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2021, 12:09:23 AM by VBNMWEB »

This is just getting ridiculous. The Republicans getting +65 seats? Really?
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2021, 12:46:23 AM »

This is just getting ridiculous. The Republicans getting +65 seats? Really?
That’s 39 seats. Are you.. ok?
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VBM
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2021, 01:13:54 AM »

This is just getting ridiculous. The Republicans getting +65 seats? Really?
That’s 39 seats. Are you.. ok?
I’m talking about the difference between R seats and D seats
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2021, 08:20:47 AM »


That sounds about right assuming around a R+3/4 environment.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2021, 08:23:45 AM »

Republicans will control the House.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2021, 07:05:20 PM »

217-Republican 217-Democrat 1-Independent
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Suburbia
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2021, 08:43:36 PM »

217-Republican 217-Democrat 1-Independent

Who becomes a Independent? Does a reelected Kurt Schrader caucus with Dems but becomes an Independent?
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2021, 08:44:09 PM »

310 R

130 D

Rs flip VA-08 and VA-10 and VA-11 because of suburban rebound to Pre-Trump levels.

Rs also flip TX-32 and TX-09 because Bush won them and 2022 will be a return to the Post-Trump Bush-Era GOP.

Rs will flip IL-17 and WI-03 because trends in those districts are real and permanent because of demographics.

Rs will flip IL-06 and MN-05 because trends in those areas are only because of Trump and will revert back to Republicans since he is not President.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2021, 08:56:21 PM »

217-Republican 217-Democrat 1-Independent

Who becomes a Independent? Does a reelected Kurt Schrader caucus with Dems but becomes an Independent?
Peter Meijer follows Justin Amash's footsteps but stays as an independent as that would give him better odds of winning than a libertarian.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2021, 09:08:36 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2021, 09:16:40 PM by Nyvin »

I just looked over the national map for a bit and I'm having a REALLY hard time seeing the Republicans get more than 235 seats, even in wave like conditions with redistricting in mind.

The GOP hits a pretty hard wall around 230-235,  everything else would have to be fluke wins of some kind.

250 R seats is absurd, not happening.
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