What do you think the House composition will look like in 2023?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just looked over the national map for a bit and I'm having a REALLY hard time seeing the Republicans get more than 235 seats, even in wave like conditions with redistricting in mind.

The GOP hits a pretty hard wall around 230-235,  everything else would have to be fluke wins of some kind.

250 R seats is absurd, not happening.

Exactly. If you’re saying this, you’re basically saying Republicans are either winning seats in places like Indianapolis, Kansas City (KS), and Memphis or cracking those districts. You also have to consider that states like NY and IL will actually be controlled by Ds this time. The GOP may be able to crack Gary, Kansas City (MO), and Nashville, as well as shore up a bit in FL, but tbh, beyond that, there’s not much else they can do to make the map significantly more favorable to them. When in redistricting, you try to pack as many of your opponents into as few districts as possible, it means you’re going to have a much harder ceiling, especially when you’re opponents reliably win a majority of votes nationally in a normal cycle.

[EastwoodS]

310 R

130 D

Rs flip VA-08 and VA-10 and VA-11 because of suburban rebound to Pre-Trump levels.

Rs also flip TX-32 and TX-09 because Bush won them and 2022 will be a return to the Post-Trump Bush-Era GOP.

Rs will flip IL-17 and WI-03 because trends in those districts are real and permanent because of demographics.

Rs will flip IL-06 and MN-05 because trends in those areas are only because of Trump and will revert back to Republicans since he is not President.

Dude, I doubt this. Not even the Democrats in 2008, or 1992 got this many seats. If I’m correct, the last time a mandate was anywhere near this high was the mid 1970s. This was back in the days of every county going red in GA in 1972 and then blue in 1976.

[Del Tachi]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

[Calthrina950]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?

[Del Tachi]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?

Democrats are a lot weaker in the House than many here think.  Remember, in 2020 no Republican incumbents lost and Democrat gains in open seats were limited to the NC redraw and GA-07.   

All in all, 77 races in 2020 were decided by 10 points or less.  Democrats won 37 of them.  Factor in GOP gains from redistricting and a +40 night is within the range of possibilities.

While redraws will change what pickup opportunities there are for either party, I'd watch (in addition to the heavy Trump districts like ME-02 or PA-08) places like IL-14, MI-11, AZ-01, TX-15, VA-02 and OR-04 for a GOP comeback.     

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?

Democrats are a lot weaker in the House than many here think.  Remember, in 2020 no Republican incumbents lost and Democrat gains in open seats were limited to the NC redraw and GA-07.  

All in all, 77 races in 2020 were decided by 10 points or less.  Democrats won 37 of them.  Factor in GOP gains from redistricting and a +40 night is within the range of possibilities.

While redraws will change what pickup opportunities there are for either party, I'd watch (in addition to the heavy Trump districts like ME-02 or PA-08) places like IL-14, MI-11, AZ-01, TX-15, VA-02 and OR-04 for a GOP comeback.    

Dems lack of pickups and losses in 2020 make a Republican pickup of 40 in 2022 even less likely.  A pickup of 40 would mean Republicans would have 253 seats, which they didn’t even get in 2010 or 2014.  Remember that there are literally only six Dems in Trump districts and thirteen Dems in districts where Biden’s margin was at or less than the national average (redistricting will change this, but not by a huge amount) as opposed to about 50 Dems in McCain districts going into 2010.  Even then, Dems only lost 28 seats that Obama won (15 of those in districts where Obama did the same or worse than his national average).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans gain 30-40 seats

This is a bold prediction. There's obviously some districts (i.e. those currently held by Cartwright, Golden, Kind, Bustos, etc.) that I see as being very vulnerable, and others which Republicans can win or pull off an upset in. What districts do you have in mind here?

Democrats are a lot weaker in the House than many here think.  Remember, in 2020 no Republican incumbents lost and Democrat gains in open seats were limited to the NC redraw and GA-07.   

All in all, 77 races in 2020 were decided by 10 points or less.  Democrats won 37 of them.  Factor in GOP gains from redistricting and a +40 night is within the range of possibilities.

While redraws will change what pickup opportunities there are for either party, I'd watch (in addition to the heavy Trump districts like ME-02 or PA-08) places like IL-14, MI-11, AZ-01, TX-15, VA-02 and OR-04 for a GOP comeback.     

Dems lack of pickups and losses in 2020 make a Republican pickup of 40 in 2022 even less likely.  A pickup of 40 would mean Republicans would have 253 seats, which they didn’t even get in 2010 or 2014.  Remember that there are literally only six Dems in Trump districts (redistricting will change this, but not by a huge amount) as opposed to about 50 Dems in McCain districts going into 2010.  Even then, Dems only lost 28 seats that Obama won.

Plus, increased polarization, and many reset gerrymanders that won't have any competative seats to start the decade will make both parties have pretty low ceilings. A lot of the reason the House battleground was so large in 2020 was because several maps had been resolved through courts and several gerrymanders started to fail.

[LabourJersey]

I'll say that Republicans pick up the House but wildly underperform due to terrible candidate selection, a lack of corporate funding, and the trend of the highest propensity voters staying mostly (not entirely) with Democrats. 

Something like 223 R, 212 D. Popular vote is barely R, R+0.75% or something like that.

[Sir Mohamed]

Prediction is not just very difficult because it's about 18 months out, but also because we don't know how redistricting will look like.

As of today, my very early prediction is 230 R vs. 205 D. NPV pretty much tied or R +0.5 pts. I'd estimate the chance for a GOP majority at 80-85%.

[Pollster]

Under the current district lines (which obviously will not happen), I think a 1-2 seat majority either way is well within the realm of likelihood.

[Meatball Ron]

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye

Why would NH-01 flip if an anti-gerrymandering bill is passed? You can't draw a district that's any worse than say, Biden +5, without significant gerrymandering.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye

Why would NH-01 flip if an anti-gerrymandering bill is passed? You can't draw a district that's any worse than say, Biden +5, without significant gerrymandering.

Because a Biden + 5 district could very realistically flip

[Meatball Ron]

My prediction: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wyb

If some sort of federal anti-gerrymandering bill is passed:https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7wye

Why would NH-01 flip if an anti-gerrymandering bill is passed? You can't draw a district that's any worse than say, Biden +5, without significant gerrymandering.

Because a Biden + 5 district could very realistically flip

It certainly could, but seems weird to give it a >50% likelihood of flipping, given general trend of NH (and specifically this suburban part), decently strong incumbent, lack of a good bench on the other side, etc. etc. Pappas is going to struggle because this district will be gerrymandered against him, but in a hypothetical where the district largely remains the same, it's crazy to think he's an underdog.