If romney won in 12, got reelected, in 16, and handled covid well, what is 2020 if ryan is nominee?

[Matty]

vs biden?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t think Biden would be the nominee in this case but a successful two term  vp would beat a unsuccessful one term vp cause all Ryan would have to do is compare and contrast this two .


Ryan also would be viewed as much differently than OTL by a long shot and so would Biden so it would be very very different than what a regular race between the two would be

[Alben Barkley]

I doubt Biden would be the nominee as well. Who did Romney beat in 2016? Hillary? If not her, it’s likely to be her and she can beat Ryan. If it was her, anything goes.

[SWE]

A competent covid response would be extremely unpopular, combine that with the historic difficulty of securing a third term for your party and Ryan's DOA against anyone the Democratic party can find

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Ryan lost in 2012 due to fact HE WANTED TO REPEAL OBAMACARE AND TURN MEDICARE ONTO A VOUCHER SYSTEM AND Bane Capital went Bankrupt, that's why Obama won

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Hopefully Dems nominate a candidate from the Midwest, maybe Whitmer.

[Motorcity]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

[ElectionsGuy]

If "handled covid well" is the same amount of deaths happening but not talking about it being a hoax or injecting bleach or whatever then no Ryan still wouldn't win. I highly doubt there was a way for the federal government to reduce deaths that much when we have such a large obesity (and other related comorbities) problem. But I think after that much Republican presidency that Dems would be naturally suited to take over anyway regardless of what happens.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

8th GOP year+ a fairly weak candidate in Ryan+ the economic effects of COVID=  A decent Democratic win in 2020, if they have a solid candidate*


*looking at the 2020 primaries, that's a big ask.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I don't know what you mean by "Romney Handled COVID Well." If Romney locked everything down, he would turn off conservatives/small business owners. If Romney locked nothing down, he would turn off moderates, and case numbers would be bad. I believe that America was doomed from the start when it came to COVID.

Paul Ryan would lose in the primary to a #populist like Josh Hawley. Ryan is very unpopular among the Republican base.

If Ryan somehow didn't lose in the primary, he would face some midwestern liberal (Maybe Gretchen Whitmer (who would be elected in 2014 in this timeline), Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Etc.) who would choose Florida Governor Charlie Crist (who would have won in 2014 and been re-elected in 2018) as Veep.

Paul Ryan would lose easily, losing the PV by 8-9%, and with the Constitution Party Candidate getting 2% of the vote. He would turn off Paleoconservatives and would lose on the issue of the economy. He would embarrassingly lose his home state of Wisconsin, and Ds would keep the Senate and the House easily.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=852n

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

[Motorcity]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

8 years of Romney means 8 years od turning a blind eye to state houses passing voting restrictions that basically gut the provisions of the voting rights act. Plus Romney replaces Ginsburg and Scalia

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

8 years of Romney means 8 years od turning a blind eye to state houses passing voting restrictions that basically gut the provisions of the voting rights act. Plus Romney replaces Ginsburg and Scalia

Again, not sure what you are getting at. Romney would not be able to replace Kennedy, Ginsburg, or Scalia because Democrats would have the Senate. Republicans would lose the house/state legislatures across the country in 2014. That's just midterm dynamics.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't know what you mean by "Romney Handled COVID Well." If Romney locked everything down, he would turn off conservatives/small business owners. If Romney locked nothing down, he would turn off moderates, and case numbers would be bad. I believe that America was doomed from the start when it came to COVID.

Paul Ryan would lose in the primary to a #populist like Josh Hawley. Ryan is very unpopular among the Republican base.

If Ryan somehow didn't lose in the primary, he would face some midwestern liberal (Maybe Gretchen Whitmer (who would be elected in 2014 in this timeline), Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Etc.) who would choose Florida Governor Charlie Crist (who would have won in 2014 and been re-elected in 2018) as Veep.

Paul Ryan would lose easily, losing the PV by 8-9%, and with the Constitution Party Candidate getting 2% of the vote. He would turn off Paleoconservatives and would lose on the issue of the economy. He would embarrassingly lose his home state of Wisconsin, and Ds would keep the Senate and the House easily.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=852n

You forget after being VP for 8 years , the perception of Ryan in that world would be very very different. He would be mainly viewed as Romney's third term and by the time COVID started to real effect day to day life, Super Tuesday had been concluded along with the Michigan primary. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

In a world where Romney wins the tea party effect is probably much smaller than OTL so due to that I see them winning MO and IN as well and Romney winning proabably gets Allen over the line as well.

[DaleCooper]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

In a world where Romney wins the tea party effect is probably much smaller than OTL so due to that I see them winning MO and IN as well and Romney winning proabably gets Allen over the line as well.

I'm not sure I understand. Are you implying that Romney being popular enough to win in 2012 would've pulled Akin and Mourdock to victory? I don't see how since their scandals were independent of Romney and aside from Ohio his path of least resistance didn't run through that region. Besides, both Donnelly and McCaskill won comfortably with at least 50% of the vote, the latter winning by something like 15%.

Or are you saying that had the Tea Party not been strong enough for men like them to win primaries then Romney would've won, and along with him the GOP would've defeated Donnelly and McCaskill?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ryan would probably win because of voting restrictions. Honestly, I doubt free elections would be a thing in a country of 8 years of GOP control

Also, Democrats would have been out of power for 16 of the previous 20 years. I would be surprised if they weren't too busy with a circular firing squad.

Rs probably wouldn't flip the senate in 2012, although Heitkamp would lose and maybe Tester as well.

In a world where Romney wins the tea party effect is probably much smaller than OTL so due to that I see them winning MO and IN as well and Romney winning proabably gets Allen over the line as well.

I'm not sure I understand. Are you implying that Romney being popular enough to win in 2012 would've pulled Akin and Mourdock to victory? I don't see how since their scandals were independent of Romney and aside from Ohio his path of least resistance didn't run through that region. Besides, both Donnelly and McCaskill won comfortably with at least 50% of the vote, the latter winning by something like 15%.

Or are you saying that had the Tea Party not been strong enough for men like them to win primaries then Romney would've won, and along with him the GOP would've defeated Donnelly and McCaskill?

Im saying the latter as the Tea Party did hamper Romney a lot in that campaign. He was forced to denounce his own healthcare plan and move to the right across the board(on economic and social issues) that made winning very difficult for Romney.

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden wouldn't be the nominee but in that scenario the election is Ryan's to lose.