White males without a college degree

[mileslunn]

What if any states did Trump win white males without a college degree?  In 2016 I believe he won them in every state, but not sure.

Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Vermont and Massachusetts only ones he might have not but pretty sure he did in first two but Hawaii and Vermont probably didn't while not sure on Massachusetts.

[Matty]

If he won them 75-20, then pretty sure that means he likely won all 50 states of them except for maybe vermont.

[kwabbit]

According to CNN/Edison, Trump won white males without a college degree 70-28. Although Edison is shoddy, that seems on point. The only states where he might not have won this vote is MA, HI, and VT.

In MA, a good estimate if the White vote is 64/36. In Maine there was a 25 point gap between non-college and college Whites. MA might be a little smaller because of its partisanship, let's say 22. In MA non-college and college whites make up a similar share of the electorate.

Let's say the College whites were 75/25 Biden and non-college White was 53/47 Biden. Given a normal gender gap, non-college white Men was 53/47 Trump and Non-college White women was 59/41 Biden. So Trump probably still won them in Mass.

In VT, Whites were 65/32. If you follow the education cap, college-white might come out to 73/24. Non-college White may be 55/42. If you follow the same gender gap, non-college white men may be 49/48 Biden and non-college white women may be 61/36 Biden. So this one is very tough to figure out, the education and gender cap sizes would've mattered.

Hawaii there's no exit poll data nor is there any similar states to compare to. I found a poll that says Whites in Hawaii were planning to vote 70/25 Biden. This slightly overestimated Biden, let's put it at 69/26 Biden. The poll found a smaller education gap, let's put it at 8 either way. Where college-educated whites were 74/20 Biden and non-college was 56/33 Biden. Then if a gender gap is applied, non-college white men might be 50/39 and non-college white women might be 62/27.


So the conclusion is Trump won them handily in the other 47 states, probably won them in MA, VT is 50/50, and in Hawaii very likely went to Biden.

Hopefully that's intelligible lol.