Which of these states will continue their trend of out-party Governors?

[Xing]

These four states have a pretty impressive trend of voting for Governors of the opposite party as the incumbent president. Which of these states will continue doing so in 2022, by voting for a Republican Governor? Also, which one do you think will continue its trend for the longest.

I'd say that Kansas is fairly likely to continue its streak, Michigan and Wisconsin are roughly even money, and it's possible that New Mexico does as well, but it's the most likely to break its streak. I think that both Michigan and Wisconsin have decent potential to continue their streak for some time to come.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Hot take: only Wisconsin. Kansas is wonky enough and the memory of Brownbacknomics strong enough to support another term of Kelly, while Evers is weakened by the legislation designed to screw him from Walker's lame duck, constantly butting heads with the state legislature and courts, and in a much less favorable position in terms of trends. Grisham should be fine unless some weird Ronchetti-esque fluke really catches her sleeping, and it's not clear who could go against Whitmer.

[MT Treasurer]

I personally believe that...

1) Sununu could get a NUT map even as Republicans lose all of AZ/NV/PA
2) Whitmer is in a much better position for reelection than Evers
3) Kelly will win/is more likely to win than Evers because the election will be framed as a referendum on Brownback

...are all takes that are going to age very poorly, but who knows?

[User2836]

Kansas and Michigan. Wisconsin is too early to tell.

New Mexico is staying with MLG.

[beesley]

All of them except New Mexico could potentially fall into this category. Wisconsin is the most likely.

[Roll Roons]

New Jersey has also followed this pattern since 1988, although it is likely (but not certain) to end this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I personally believe that...

1) Sununu could get a NUT map even as Republicans lose all of AZ/NV/PA
2) Whitmer is in a much better position for reelection than Evers
3) Kelly will win/is more likely to win than Evers because the election will be framed as a referendum on Brownback

...are all takes that are going to age very poorly, but who knows?

You really think a 6 pt lead in NH, a D state is gonna hold up for 20 mnths, obviously it's KS

[sting in the rafters]

WI/MI entirely depends on Democratic enthusiasm. Both states will almost invariably go D when the Dem base shows up, however a Republican can win if their turnout operation is better and they improve their margins with the white independents who strongly backed Dems in 2018 and 2020.  Evers/Whitmer will appeal to these voters by emphasizing their support for the child tax credit and tying themselves to their above-average vaccine rollouts. Whether those policies deliver will be crucial to their re-election chances.

\Kansas might stay blue due to memories of Brownback's incompetent handling of tax policy, though I'm afraid the GOP base will be motivated in a cycle where they don't have the White House.