More electable: Lamb or Fetterman?

[Meatball Ron]

Looking at the Dems who've had the most success in PA - namely Wolf, Casey, and Shapiro, who are all pretty serious clean cut guys - I am inclined to say Lamb.

I think the idea that Fetterman has some special appeal to Trump voters because he's big and gruff and poorly dressed reflects a) wishcasting b) leftists projecting a caricature of what they think Trump voters look like / want their politicians to look like. Like any good/generic Dem, Fetterman has said Biden won the election, supports BLM and LGBT equality, etc. so he won't win the support of more than a handful of Trump voters, full stop.

That said, I certainly recognize Lamb's weaknesses as a candidate, specifically his ability to energize younger voters, voters of color, progressives, etc. I think on balance these are probably a little less severe than Fetterman's weaknesses, but it's a cause for serious concern.

Say what you will about Trump but he always wears suits and make-up before public events. The idea that they're looking for some big steel mill worker tough guy is based on some urban liberals carcuiture of what a trump voter looks like rather than something they actualy want.

Exactly

[Meatball Ron]

Looking at the Dems who've had the most success in PA - namely Wolf, Casey, and Shapiro, who are all pretty serious clean cut guys - I am inclined to say Lamb.

I think the idea that Fetterman has some special appeal to Trump voters because he's big and gruff and poorly dressed reflects a) wishcasting b) leftists projecting a caricature of what they think Trump voters look like / want their politicians to look like. Like any good/generic Dem, Fetterman has said Biden won the election, supports BLM and LGBT equality, etc. so he won't win the support of more than a handful of Trump voters, full stop.

That said, I certainly recognize Lamb's weaknesses as a candidate, specifically his ability to energize younger voters, voters of color, progressives, etc. I think on balance these are probably a little less severe than Fetterman's weaknesses, but it's a cause for serious concern.

So in conclusion I suppose neither of these is really an ideal candidate for '22 and it's disappointing that they're the ones we've got. To me the obvious answer is that a candidate with a base of support in the Philly suburbs would be strongest in the general, since that'll be the pivotal region from both a turnout and persuasion perspective. I think Dean or Houlahan could've been really strong, and honestly, I'm not convinced Kenyatta couldn't do well statewide either.

I agree with this with the exception of the assumption that Fetterman would do better among “voters of color.” Time and time again moderate candidates have shown they do better with them so I don’t buy that.

Oh, sorry, I did not mean to imply that at all. I think Fetterman would do the same as or worse than Lamb with voters of color. What I was trying to say is that neither of them are in a great position to do as well with voters of color as a Dem running in PA needs to.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

According to Pew Research, the Progressive left is the highest turnout of any political group. The notion that there are millions of far left people who are just waiting to turn out if the dems would just go more left is a complete and utter myth. While non-voters do tend to lean more left on economic issues, they also tend to lean more right on social issues, be more distrustful of government, and are more willing to listen to "conspiracy theories".


A democratic socialist is not going to have huge appeal to swing voters, especially when inflation is as high as it is. Fetterman is an atrocious candidate and has no appeal to the kind of Trump swing voters Atlas thinks there are. He would have lost to Sean Parnell had he been running in Connor Lamb's district. His only hope of winning is if it is proven Sean Parnell abused his wife right before the election so that R's didn't have enough time to replace him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's D takeover like WI, and users need to stop Mandel Barnes as unelectable because he is a socialist as WARNOCK, Booker

NC and OH are still winnable DeWine will blow out Nan W but  Josh Mandel and Vance and Pat McCrory are weak, it's called winning without TX or FL

They're not Lean D takeover they are competetive

[free my dawg]

In addition to not letting Parnell's abuse slip by him, Fetterman doesn't get into feuds with journalists who are critical of him on Twitter.

[Utah Neolib]

I don’t think either would be statistically significantly better or worse than the other. I don’t think many people exist who wouldn’t vote for Lamb but would vote for Fetterman or Vice versa.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In addition to not letting Parnell's abuse slip by him, Fetterman doesn't get into feuds with journalists who are critical of him on Twitter.

No, he just chases unarmed African-Americans around with a shotgun.

[H. Ross Peron]

In addition to not letting Parnell's abuse slip by him, Fetterman doesn't get into feuds with journalists who are critical of him on Twitter.

No, he just chases unarmed African-Americans around with a shotgun.

The guy who was chased by Fetterman endorsed him for Senate lol. I really don't think this will be a problem.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In addition to not letting Parnell's abuse slip by him, Fetterman doesn't get into feuds with journalists who are critical of him on Twitter.

No, he just chases unarmed African-Americans around with a shotgun.

The guy who was chased by Fetterman endorsed him for Senate lol. I really don't think this will be a problem.

The guy said that he personally doesn’t believe one mistake, however grave, should define a man’s life.  However, he has continued to tell reporters that Fetterman “lied about everything” that happened during the incident.  You’re only fooling yourself if you think Republicans won’t have a field day with this. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fetterman, but neither seem to be particularly strong candidates.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman, but neither seem to be particularly strong candidates.

I agree. I'm not particularly impressed with either, and I'm not confident either would win in next year's environment.

[MT Treasurer]

Neither is likely to win unless the Republican candidate completely implodes/doesn’t bother to run a halfway decent campaign and/or the environment improves substantially for Democrats, but I do think there are more people who would vote for Lamb but might not vote for Fetterman. I’m relatively confident about Lamb performing close to generic D levels, whereas Fetterman is giving me serious Randy Brice vibes.

It’s astonishing how underwhelming both the D and R fields in this race are, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither is likely to win unless the Republican candidate completely implodes/doesn’t bother to run a halfway decent campaign and/or the environment improves substantially for Democrats, but I do think there are more people who would vote for Lamb but might not vote for Fetterman. I’m relatively confident about Lamb performing close to generic D levels, whereas Fetterman is giving me serious Randy Brice vibes.

It’s astonishing how underwhelming both the D and R fields in this race are, though.

Yeah right the only poll in this race had Fetterman leading by nine pts

Don't count on Kelly losing he was up 43/39 over Brnovich

It's a 304 Map with potential for D victories when Biden isn't at 41 percent in OH, NC SEN AND TX GOV

Cook have both WI and NC Sen ad Tossups Sabato believes it's a Red wave by keeping WI in Red colimn and Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll last poll had it 47

Beto have younger voters and despite VA, VBM advantage D's and we are still Gon a have VBM not Same day voting Newsom won with 60 percent in VBM

[Senator-elect Spark]

Conor Lamb by far. Fett is too left for PA.

[sting in the rafters]

Fetterman's equivocation of defending the Mariner East 2 pipeline means he is done in SEPA. Lamb's even worse on energy but him leaning fully into being pro fossil fuels means he'll at least get decent numbers in the Pittsburgh and Scranton metros. His support of a $15/hr minimum wage is enough to rally support in Philly as well.

Am currently undecided between Kenyatta and Fetterman in the primary but will support whoever gets the nom in the general even if its Lamb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kenyatta's is only at 5 percent in the primary because he stopped going on MSNBC to get his name out

[free my dawg]

Fetterman's equivocation of defending the Mariner East 2 pipeline means he is done in SEPA. Lamb's even worse on energy but him leaning fully into being pro fossil fuels means he'll at least get decent numbers in the Pittsburgh and Scranton metros. His support of a $15/hr minimum wage is enough to rally support in Philly as well.

Am currently undecided between Kenyatta and Fetterman in the primary but will support whoever gets the nom in the general even if its Lamb.

Counterpoint: John Fetterman has a Twitter for his dog, which appeals to The Suburbans (see: Raphael Warnock, Elizabeth Warren).

[Lief 🗽]

The answers in this thread are totally crazy.

Lamb has won three competitive general elections. Fetterman has won zero.

Lamb has proven that he can win over swing voters and conservatives. Fetterman has not.

Lamb has been subjected to GOP scrutiny repeatedly. Fetterman has not.

The only reason people think Fetterman is more electable is because he fits the caricature that liberals have of WWC voters because he has a bad haircut and doesn’t wear trousers.

[Oakvale]

The answers in this thread are totally crazy.

Lamb has won three competitive general elections. Fetterman has won zero.

Lamb has proven that he can win over swing voters and conservatives. Fetterman has not.

Lamb has been subjected to GOP scrutiny repeatedly. Fetterman has not.

The only reason people think Fetterman is more electable is because he fits the caricature that liberals have of WWC voters because he has a bad haircut and doesn’t wear trousers.

Reminds me of when people memed themselves into thinking some random dude could defeat Paul Ryan because he had a moustache and a blue collar job lol

[free my dawg]

The answers in this thread are totally crazy.

Lamb has won three competitive general elections. Fetterman has won zero.

Fetterman has won a competitive statewide primary. A bit of a false equivalency, since he was also the only candidate from western PA, but it's not like he's this untested amateur. Or a perennial candidate who happened to go viral like Randy Bryce.

Lamb has proven that he can win over swing voters and conservatives. Fetterman has not.

The question is if he's still using these same tactics. Golden's certainly tacking to the center since he got elected on issues like police reform. I'm very bearish on the I'm Not Like Other Democrats strategy and I'll go as far as to say it hurts the party as a whole downballot. Lamb's scorched-earth campaigning to win the primary, if it fails, will drag the entire ticket down with him.

(I don't put much stock into his MORE Act vote as far as electability goes. Even if people will only see the vote against, only the terminally Online people like us remember this even happened and care enough to go #Never for. Even I even heeled for Pappas because he's good on the rest of these issues and has a chance at winning his seat.)

Lamb has been subjected to GOP scrutiny repeatedly. Fetterman has not.

Call me crazy, but I'm not impressed with a candidate who ran even with Biden against a scandal-ridden opponent. He can blame the Squad and rant at journalists all he wants for criticizing his online outreach, but his underperformance is on him.

I think Fetterman will hold up fine. He hasn't antagonized unions like Walton or the entire Democratic Party like Nina. The jogger incident is very concerning (as I've been saying for months), but one piece compared to Lamb's record.

The only reason people think Fetterman is more electable is because he fits the caricature that liberals have of WWC voters because he has a bad haircut and doesn’t wear trousers.

I've been making empirical arguments this entire thread. Fetterman is already pivoting towards an image that can appeal to suburban voters. I'm also a bit concerned with Lamb's inability to seize on Parnell abusing his wife in their last race. Even in the primary, his late entry effectively allowed Fetterman to have the floor.

I wouldn't call Lamb unelectable by any means, but surely he should be improving in the primary standings after three months of being in the race.