Muhlenberg College: Santorum (R) closes gap over Casey (D)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Muhlenberg College on 2006-08-05

Summary: D: 45%, R: 39%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MasterJedi]

My prediction still stands, Santorum barely wins on election day.

[MarkWarner08]

My prediction still stands, Santorum barely wins on election day.

My prediction still stands, Santorum can only win reelection if his approval ratings are over 50%, Bush is over 50%, Democrats implode, Casey is convicted for grand theft auto and Howard Dean decides to blow all of the Democrats money on taking back the Alaska State House.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uni poll, enough said. Toss this one in the trsh.

And even if we consider this valid, that's not evidence of closing the gap, it's called statistical variation. In fact I think I'll make a graph to move my point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Casey is going to win by 10 points. This is the same fluke poll that had Rendell at 35%.  And the same fluke poll having Ensign in trouble. I doubt if Rendell, Casey, or Ensign are in any trouble.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alright, here's my crappy little Excel graph:



I counted the first poll listed here (Februrary 5th) as Day 0 and numbered each day accordingly past that. As you can see, there is little correlation or trend. Casey's lead has fluctulated greatly, but there is no trend to suggest that Santorum is closing the gap. Also note another Casey +6 poll was done awhile back, but it turned out to just be a statistical fluke, as this one likely is.

[Rob]

Wow. MasterJedi, you actually think Santorum will win? I don't think even Phil expects him to win.

PA Senate 2006: Casey 54-46. With the Green on the ballot: 52-46.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jedi and WalterMitty are the only people left predicting a Santorum victory.

[Flying Dog]

If this is the way it is by the end of september (casey above 50 and santorum and or below 40 then i think its all over

[Jake]

Jedi and WalterMitty are the only people left predicting a Santorum victory.

Wrong. Santorum 52-47.

[Flying Dog]

Jedi and WalterMitty are the only people left predicting a Santorum victory.

Wrong. Santorum 52-47.

whooooooooooooo..........what a surprise

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jedi and WalterMitty are the only people left predicting a Santorum victory.

Wrong. Santorum 52-47.

I don't see this as too likely:

[Jake]

You've mentioned that over the past year.

[Eraserhead]

Tell me when Santorum at least gets within five points and is over 40%. Otherwise it is real hard to take this race seriously.

[Kevin]

I think he is still going to lose.

[Nym90]

39 percent for an incumbent is quite bad no matter how you look at it. It seems what we are seeing is an increase or decrease in the undecideds, who seem to waver between Casey and undecided. Santorum has to get above 45 percent in the polls before he can be considered a serious threat to win.

[Eraserhead]

39 percent for an incumbent is quite bad no matter how you look at it. It seems what we are seeing is an increase or decrease in the undecideds, who seem to waver between Casey and undecided. Santorum has to get above 45 percent in the polls before he can be considered a serious threat to win.

This poll is an outlier anyway. It under represented Casey support.

[© tweed]

...and it's a university poll not named "Quinnipiac".  Vorlon didn't like those when he was around and there were many examples of his distrust that were validated by the results in '04.

[ATFFL]

Well, now The Big Q uni poll agrees.  This gives us two polls at 6% for Casey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well, now The Big Q uni poll agrees.  This gives us two polls at 6% for Casey.

If you believe the Green is going to get 5%.

[Jake]

If Romanelli's on the ballot, he'll have no problem garnering around 4-5% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, now The Big Q uni poll agrees.  This gives us two polls at 6% for Casey.

If you believe the Green is going to get 5%.

Makes perfect sense. Liberals really don't like Casey and many are so crazy that they don't care that they're partially helping Santorum. Leave this race up to people that know it better than you (even Flyers worries about the impact of the Green party).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA has never been a third-party friendly state. I still have a tough time buying that, especially considering how hated Greens and third parties are now (remember the people who thought Nader would top 1% in 2004?)

Leave this race up to people that know it better than you (even Flyers worries about the impact of the Green party).

So are you going to do that with Minnesota?

[Jake]

PA has never been a third-party friendly state. I still have a tough time buying that, especially considering how hated Greens and third parties are now (remember the people who thought Nader would top 1% in 2004?)

You're joking, right?

Third parties:
1998 - 11.5% (Luksik took 10%)
2002 - 2%

1998 - 4%
2000 - 2%
2004 - 5.5% (Clymer took 4%)
 
And that's almost all Reform, Libertarian, and Constitution Party results. We've never seen how much the Green's will be able to take, but when if you take the number of voters who voted against Casey in the Senate primary, and add in the voters who will vote third party, I don't think 4-5% would be surprising.

[Keystone Phil]

PA has never been a third-party friendly state. I still have a tough time buying that, especially considering how hated Greens and third parties are now (remember the people who thought Nader would top 1% in 2004?)

You're joking, right?

Third parties:
1998 - 11.5% (Luksik took 10%)
2002 - 2%

1998 - 4%
2000 - 2%
2004 - 5.5% (Clymer took 4%)
 
And that's almost all Reform, Libertarian, and Constitution Party results. We've never seen how much the Green's will be able to take, but when if you take the number of voters who voted against Casey in the Senate primary, and add in the voters who will vote third party, I don't think 4-5% would be surprising.

Thanks for straightening him out, Jake, but I really wanted to do that. 

So are you going to do that with Minnesota?

Once someone who knows what they're talking about comes along, I surely will.


In all seriousness, I have stayed away from commenting on that race anyway.