Randomized revolving primary calendar

[Joe Republic]

I see the logic in having smaller states spread across the country go first in the primary calendar.  Theoretically, candidates don't need a ton of money to campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (relative to states like California or New York, for example).  This allows for a somewhat more level playing field for lower tier candidates to have a shot against the big-money frontrunners... again, in theory.

What doesn't make sense, however, is that the same four states always go first, and always Iowa then New Hampshire as the first two.

I propose that the parties adopt a revolving calendar in which a different smaller state will have the chance to go first, followed by another smaller state from a different region of the country, and then again twice more, before the field opens up to a limited Super Tuesday, and then a fully open 'free for all' field.






The first primary

One of the four census regions is selected at random, to have one of its states go first.

A smaller state within that region will then be selected at random to hold the first primary.  "Smaller" states might be defined as being in the lower half of the population tiers within that region.

If the region went first in the last two or three election cycles, it may not go first again.  If the selected state went first in the last two or three election cycles, it may not go first again.

The second thru fourth primaries

The remaining three census regions are randomized, with a smaller state within each respective region randomly selected to go second, third and fourth.

Super Tuesday

Three states from within each region are selected at random (irrespective of the state's population size) to participate in a twelve-state Super Tuesday.

The rest

The remaining field of states are free to schedule their primary at any date no sooner than a week after Super Tuesday.


EXAMPLE

Using a random number generator, here's a schedule for the 2024 primary cycle.

I determined that the South region would go first, followed by the Midwest, then the Northeast, then the West.

1. Of the smaller tier of state populations within the South region (DC, DE, WV, AR, MS, OK, KY and LA), I randomly selected Oklahoma to go first.
2. Of the smaller tier within the Midwest region (ND, SD, NE, KS, IA and MN), I randomly selected Nebraska to go second.
3. Of the smaller tier within the Northeast region (VT, RI, NH and ME), I randomly selected Rhode Island to go third.
4. Of the smaller tier within the West region (WY, MT, AK, HI, ID and NM), I randomly selected Idaho to go fourth.
5. Super Tuesday - three states, regardless of population, randomly selected from each of the four regions:
     Kentucky
     Mississippi
     Georgia
     Kansas
     Wisconsin
     Indiana
     New Jersey
     Massachusetts
     Maine
     Nevada
     Oregon
     Arizona
6.  The remaining states may schedule their primaries on any date, but no sooner than a week after Super Tuesday.


In the next election cycle, the South region would not be allowed to go first.  Oklahoma, Nebraska, Rhode Island and Idaho would not be allowed to be selected for the first four primaries (but could be selected to be part of Super Tuesday).

Complicated?  Yes, I know.  But the general public would not be expected to understand any of this, as the calendar would be decided by the parties working together with the states.

[beesley]

An issue that would be brought up is the fact that smaller states are less reflective of the nation as a whole, especially in terms of ethnic makeup. I understand 'regional balance' makes up for this to a degree but I think your solution isn't seeing the wood from the trees in terms of the main issues people raise with primaries. That being said, if your issue is simply the same states going first each time then your solution is not unreasonable.

[It’s so Joever]

Why not let the swing states go first?

[Frodo]

That's essentially the slightly altered version of the Rotating Regional Primary proposal that's been floating around for over twenty years now.

[Terlylane]

Interesting idea, but put Maryland, Delaware, and DC in the Northeast.