David Shor Autopsy of Election

[StateBoiler]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/03/david-shor-2020-democrats-autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html?__twitter_impression=true&force_isolation=true

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/03/david-shor-2020-democrats-autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html?__twitter_impression=true&force_isolation=true

This is actually the most coherent explanation I've read for the movement of Latinos toward Trump.  

Most importantly, Shor doesn't just excuse this as a difference in turnout, but genuine persuasion of Clinton '16 voters to vote for Trump in '20.  

Overall, Shor says that partisan sorting by Latinos in '20 along ideological lines, similar to what we've seen among white voters over the past several decades.  And specifically, crime emerged as the most important sorting issue, with conservative Latinos who previously supported Democrats being especially alienated by the "defund the police" campaign.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Most importantly, Shor doesn't just excuse this as a difference in turnout, but genuine persuasion of Clinton '16 voters to vote for Trump in '20.  

I'm sure that hack Rachel Bitecofer will be quite pleased to hear this.

[Kamala's side hoe]

What are the most important things you’ve learned about the 2020 election between the last time we spoke and today?

What’s changed since November is that we now have individual-level vote-history data in a bunch of states. And we also have a lot more precinct-level data. And people have had more time to run surveys. So the picture has gotten clearer.

One high-level takeaway is that the 2020 electorate had a very similar partisan composition to the 2016 electorate. When the polls turned out to be wrong — and Trump turned out to be much stronger than they predicted — a lot of people concluded that turnout models must have been off: Trump must have inspired higher Republican turnout than expected. But that looks wrong. It really seems like the electorate was slightly more Democratic than it had been in 2016, largely due to demographic change (because there’s such a large partisan gap between younger and older voters, every four years the electorate gets something like 0.4 percent more Democratic just through generational churn). So Trump didn’t exceed expectations by inspiring higher-than-anticipated Republican turnout. He exceeded them mostly through persuasion. A lot of voters changed their minds between 2016 and 2020.

I'm a bit skeptical of the idea that there were a lot of nonwhite HRC-Trump voters outside of Florida and the RGV, unless we can definitively prove that nonwhite first-time voters overwhelmingly turned out for Biden. Aside from first-time voters aged 18-29, I don't really think that happened.

At the subgroup level, Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent. The jury is still out on Asian Americans. We’re waiting on data from California before we say anything. But there’s evidence that there was something like a 5 percent decline in Asian American support for Democrats, likely with a lot of variance among subgroups. There were really big declines in Vietnamese areas, for example. Anyway, one implication of these shifts is that education polarization went up and racial polarization went down.

In other words, a voter’s level of educational attainment — whether they had a college degree — became more predictive of which party they voted for in 2020 than it had been in 2016, while a voter’s racial identity became less predictive?


Yeah. White voters as a whole trended toward the Democratic Party, and nonwhite voters trended away from us. So we’re now somewhere between 2004 and 2008 in terms of racial polarization. Which is interesting. I don’t think a lot of people expected Donald Trump’s GOP to have a much more diverse support base than Mitt Romney’s did in 2012. But that’s what happened.

It's only surprising because Trump was the GOP incumbent. This wouldn't have been surprising with any other R nominee.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

When you say that white liberals are to the left of the typical Black Democrat on racial issues, how much does that depend on the definition of a racial issue? For example, one policy fight that often pits the interests of white liberal Democrats against those of the Black working class is housing and school integration. There are a lot of highly educated, white, liberal areas — full of “Black Lives Matter” lawn signs — which nevertheless oppose affordable-housing projects or school-redistricting plans that would bring less wealthy, less white students to their kids’ classrooms. The white liberals who oppose efforts to end de facto segregation may know the enlightened answer to abstract questions about the nature of racial inequality, but I’m not sure that puts them to the left of nonwhite voters on racial issues, properly defined.


Yeah, no, absolutely. White liberals do give more progressive responses across a wide battery of traditional racial resentment questions like, “Do you believe that the reason why African Americans can’t get ahead is due to discrimination or due to other factors?” But I think it’s important to put “racial resentment” in quotes whenever you talk about it. I’m not claiming that white liberals are somehow less racist than people of color, to the extent that question even makes sense. And I do think if you asked about affirmative action and inclusionary zoning, rather than these more abstract questions that political scientists use for measuring racial resentment, you could find a different breakdown.

But I think the split on those abstract questions captures something real. In liberal circles, racism has been defined in highly ideological terms. And this theoretical perspective on what racism means and the nature of racial inequality have become a big part of the group identity of college-educated Democrats, white and nonwhite. But it’s not necessarily how most nonwhite, working-class people understand racism.

[Orser67]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

[Roll Roons]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

Demographics aren't destiny after all. Before the election, I was talking to a guy I know who works for a Texas GOP congressman. He was concerned about his boss' race and others across the state, and said that it wasn't Hispanics who were giving them heartburn, but white suburbanites.

[StateBoiler]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

[Motorcity]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

I mostly agree with what you are saying. I come from a minority family (second generation Arab/Muslim)

Many POC are socially conservative if not more conservative than the average white person. Growing up, I was always amused how similar my parents thinking was compared to the average redneck. I grew up in West Tennessee.

But I don't see the GOP getting 80% of the vote. If we had a national election strictly on social issues, yeah I could see them getting 80% in the south (and winning nationally)

But most POC depend on welfare. I've been to black churches that preached aganist gay marriage and abortion, but also urged its members to vote Democrats to protect their food stamps

For Hispanics, Indians, Asians, and Arabs, immigration is still important issues. That might change in the future as second and third generations come of voting age. But right now its still important.

[catographer]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

I mostly agree with what you are saying. I come from a minority family (second generation Arab/Muslim)

Many POC are socially conservative if not more conservative than the average white person. Growing up, I was always amused how similar my parents thinking was compared to the average redneck. I grew up in West Tennessee.

But I don't see the GOP getting 80% of the vote. If we had a national election strictly on social issues, yeah I could see them getting 80% in the south (and winning nationally)

But most POC depend on welfare. I've been to black churches that preached aganist gay marriage and abortion, but also urged its members to vote Democrats to protect their food stamps

For Hispanics, Indians, Asians, and Arabs, immigration is still important issues. That might change in the future as second and third generations come of voting age. But right now its still important.

Gotta step in and call out the falsehood that “most POC depend on welfare.”

- Most able-bodied adult welfare recipients (Medicaid & SNAP make up vast majority) are currently employed or are temporarily between jobs.
- Most welfare recipients are White.
- Most people of every race do not receive public assistance.
- White people are lifted out of poverty more nominally and per capita (disproportionately) than other races.

Sources:
https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/poverty-reduction-programs-help-adults-lacking-college-degrees-the
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p70-141.pdf
https://checkyourfact.com/2018/10/18/fact-check-whites-medicaid-food-stamps/
https://www.thoughtco.com/who-really-receives-welfare-4126592
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a7880cde4b0d3df1d13f60b

[Motorcity]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

I mostly agree with what you are saying. I come from a minority family (second generation Arab/Muslim)

Many POC are socially conservative if not more conservative than the average white person. Growing up, I was always amused how similar my parents thinking was compared to the average redneck. I grew up in West Tennessee.

But I don't see the GOP getting 80% of the vote. If we had a national election strictly on social issues, yeah I could see them getting 80% in the south (and winning nationally)

But most POC depend on welfare. I've been to black churches that preached aganist gay marriage and abortion, but also urged its members to vote Democrats to protect their food stamps

For Hispanics, Indians, Asians, and Arabs, immigration is still important issues. That might change in the future as second and third generations come of voting age. But right now its still important.

Gotta step in and call out the falsehood that “most POC depend on welfare.”

- Most able-bodied adult welfare recipients (Medicaid & SNAP make up vast majority) are currently employed or are temporarily between jobs.
- Most welfare recipients are White.
- Most people of every race do not receive public assistance.
- White people are lifted out of poverty more nominally and per capita (disproportionately) than other races.

Sources:
https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/poverty-reduction-programs-help-adults-lacking-college-degrees-the
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p70-141.pdf
https://checkyourfact.com/2018/10/18/fact-check-whites-medicaid-food-stamps/
https://www.thoughtco.com/who-really-receives-welfare-4126592
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a7880cde4b0d3df1d13f60b

I'm not trying to repeat conservative talking points, but some form of welfare (usually SNAP and Medicaid) supplements a lot of people of color income. It did for my family

Everyone is afraid of the GOP forming a multi-racial working class coalition. That might happen and its scary, but it won't as long as the GOP has the perception of cutting foodstamps and medicaid

Trump in 2016 was seen as a moderate on welfare. He governed as a typical Republican cutting the welfare net

Had he left Obamacare alone and didn't try to cut so much welfare, he might have won 40% of the hispanic vote and 20% of the black vote

[StateBoiler]

Had he left Obamacare alone and didn't try to cut so much welfare, he might have won 40% of the hispanic vote and 20% of the black vote.

He did leave Obamacare alone, because the Republican majority in the House 2017-18 could not agree on anything about slashing it or revising it, let alone the Senate.

[Motorcity]

Had he left Obamacare alone and didn't try to cut so much welfare, he might have won 40% of the hispanic vote and 20% of the black vote.

He did leave Obamacare alone, because the Republican majority in the House 2017-18 could not agree on anything about slashing it or revising it, let alone the Senate.

The only reason it wasn’t repealed was because John McCain gave the thumbs down

[StateBoiler]

Had he left Obamacare alone and didn't try to cut so much welfare, he might have won 40% of the hispanic vote and 20% of the black vote.

He did leave Obamacare alone, because the Republican majority in the House 2017-18 could not agree on anything about slashing it or revising it, let alone the Senate.

The only reason it wasn’t repealed was because John McCain gave the thumbs down

House Republicans were significantly way more pro-repeal than Senate Republicans where they never had the votes, and the House Republican caucus could not agree on anything internally that would get a majority of votes in the House.

[Motorcity]

Had he left Obamacare alone and didn't try to cut so much welfare, he might have won 40% of the hispanic vote and 20% of the black vote.

He did leave Obamacare alone, because the Republican majority in the House 2017-18 could not agree on anything about slashing it or revising it, let alone the Senate.

The only reason it wasn’t repealed was because John McCain gave the thumbs down

House Republicans were significantly way more pro-repeal than Senate Republicans where they never had the votes, and the House Republican caucus could not agree on anything internally that would get a majority of votes in the House.

To the million of Americans who depend on Obamacare for insurance and the millions more who depend on the pre-existing condition clause, you think saying “the the house republican caucus would never get a majority to repeal it” makes them feel better?

I get what your saying but there were plenty of people scared from Nov 3 2016 onwards about losing their coverage. The whole divided caucus idea doesn’t bring much comfort 

[DaleCooper]

This is a really fascinating assessment of the 2020 election.

In particular it seems to indicate that the Democrats' decision to dive into the culture war and focus less on pragmatic policy has hurt them significantly, especially among working-class minorities.

[DaleCooper]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

Conservatism in minority communities wasn't a problem for Democrats in the past due to the fact that Republicans had worked so hard to appeal to racist white voters for decades as well as the fact that the Democratic Party was genuinely the big-tent party between the two of them. The article also highlights that one of the consequences of appealing to the suburban, college-educated whites is that they demand much more exclusivity when it comes to their progressivism. This is why so many Democrats are scared to come out and wholeheartedly condemn the ACAB/Defund the Police rhetoric, and it's why the Democratic Party embraced nonsense like "Latinx". It isn't to appeal to black and hispanic voters, respectively, but to appeal to the overwhelmingly white leftwing base with incoherent culture war stuff that almost no persuadable voters care about.

[StateBoiler]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

Conservatism in minority communities wasn't a problem for Democrats in the past due to the fact that Republicans had worked so hard to appeal to racist white voters for decades.

Yeah. That's why Republicans post-Civil War ran North Carolina uninterrupted for the next 130 years, not the Democrats.

[Motorcity]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

Conservatism in minority communities wasn't a problem for Democrats in the past due to the fact that Republicans had worked so hard to appeal to racist white voters for decades as well as the fact that the Democratic Party was genuinely the big-tent party between the two of them. The article also highlights that one of the consequences of appealing to the suburban, college-educated whites is that they demand much more exclusivity when it comes to their progressivism. This is why so many Democrats are scared to come out and wholeheartedly condemn the ACAB/Defund the Police rhetoric, and it's why the Democratic Party embraced nonsense like "Latinx". It isn't to appeal to black and hispanic voters, respectively, but to appeal to the overwhelmingly white leftwing base with incoherent culture war stuff that almost no persuadable voters care about.

So, how do we maintain our big tent while ignore the foolish crap like "latinx" and "defund the police". Otherwise we are just going to lose minority votes and forever be in the minority

[DaleCooper]

The whole thing is worth reading, but for me this was the most important takeaway:

Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology?...What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

I grew up and lived in eastern North Carolina until I was 30 where the population was roughly equally split between white and black. These blacks are mostly conservative if you ask them about issues and policies not connected to race. (I remember a conversation once with a 60-year-old black man when Iraq was going on telling me "here's how you solve it, just turn the place into a parking lot".) I can produce a ton of black mothers for you that are anti-crime and want the criminals in their neighborhood put in jail. Average blacks and Hispanics for example are more religious than the average white, yet the religious response the media and liberals always highlight is "Jerry Falwell".

If blacks and Hispanics ever start to vote on ideology (I think they will one day, just need the right linchpin on the grenade to be pulled), the South as presently constituted would go from Republicans winning 55-45 to winning 80-20. I think the problem with blacks especially is voting Democrat reflexively because in a lot of areas where the black population exists, they can effectively take control of the political organization. In Fort Wayne, Indiana's county, black Democrats have so incredibly taken control of the party organization effectively that the last time a new white Democrat was elected or appointed to anything was 2011 - all new Democratic Party officeholders the past 9 years in the county have been black. That's good if you're black, it's not good if you're a liberal. If that calculus ever changes and liberals are able to overwhelm the blacks in primaries, you may see more political power individuals question the arrangement. I know in North Carolina the three wings of the N.C. Democratic Party always were moderates, blacks, and liberals. The former two would always line up to stop the last from winning. The moderate wing has gotten at the very least much smaller.

Conservatism in minority communities wasn't a problem for Democrats in the past due to the fact that Republicans had worked so hard to appeal to racist white voters for decades.

Yeah. That's why Republicans post-Civil War ran North Carolina uninterrupted for the next 130 years, not the Democrats.

Sorry, I meant much more recent past, as in post Civil Rights Act/Southern Strategy.