It's January 2025, and the Senate is 55-45 GOP. What seats flipped?

[Tekken_Guy]

It's January 2025, and the Senate has a 55-45 GOP advantage. What seats have flipped since now?

[Orser67]

Well there's one less independent, so I'll start with ME flipping I -> D in 2024 since I think that's the single most likely scenario for the number of independents decreasing.

Otherwise:
GA '22 D->R
AZ '22 D->R
WV '24 D->R
MT '24 D->R
OH '24 D->R

In terms of likelihood to flip, NH '22 D->R and NV '22 D->R are basically in the same tier for me as all of the above except WV

[MT Treasurer]

NH (2022), NV (2022), AZ (2022), WV (2024), OH (2024)

But there are a variety of plausible combinations here (I do think this suggests a 2024 underperformance, though).

[Roll Roons]

2022: R gain AZ, NV and NH
2024: R gain MT and WV, D gain ME

But other combinations are possible. Maybe Republicans gained GA in 2022 or one of AZ/NV/OH/MI/WI in 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

Sorry, I meant 55-45 GOP. I intended to count all independents with their caucusing party.

[Skill and Chance]

NH (2022), NV (2022), AZ (2022), WV (2024), OH (2024)

But there are a variety of plausible combinations here (I do think this suggests a 2024 underperformance, though).

2022 is likely to be a closely fought battle somewhere between R+2 and D+3.  Most of the variance comes in 2024.

The big question with 2024 is whether the dam breaks in the Midwestern Trump/Biden states.  WV, OH, and MT all look pretty gone, so I would start at R+3 as a baseline.  If it's a Dem win at the presidential level, the losses probably stop there, and Republicans would be at or near 55 seats.  If it's a substantial Republican win at the presidential level, hoo boy.  This is what an even PV map in 2024 could look like:



This map would be R+8 in the Senate!

In the last 2 presidential cycles, we have only had one opposite party senate win (Collins in ME).   Between Sinema's moderation and Arizona moving left relative to the country, I think she would be that exception, but there's also the risk that Maine reverts to 2016 behavior, in which case that seat could easily be lost in any better-than-2016 Republican performance. 

So I think the headline scenario here would require Democrats holding the WH in 2024, in which case the seats that flipped are OH, MT, and WV, and then they net 2 in 2022 which obviously starts with NV and NH, so either R's held everything and picked up those 2 (by far the most likely).  Or they lost PA and flipped one of AZ or GA.  Or they only netted 1 in 2022 (flip NV and NH, lose PA or only flip NH with Sununu in an otherwise Dem leaning 2002 style midterm) and flipped WI in 2024.

If Republicans win the presidential election in 2024, they are going to be sitting on 58-62 seats most likely.  If Democrats win the presidential election, 54-56 is the most likely outcome and this scenario is reasonable. 

[7,052,770]

It means that a Democratic Senator died in the next few months and was replaced by a Republican, or otherwise there would be at least 102 Senators.

[MT Treasurer]

NH (2022), NV (2022), AZ (2022), WV (2024), OH (2024)

But there are a variety of plausible combinations here (I do think this suggests a 2024 underperformance, though).

2022 is likely to be a closely fought battle somewhere between R+2 and D+3.  Most of the variance comes in 2024.

R+3 is far more likely than D+3 for 2022. I also disagree that MT is gone.

[Xing]

Republicans flipped AZ (2022), NH (2022), MT (2024), OH (2024), and WV (2024). I don't see how MT/OH (2024) are less likely to flip than GA/NV (2022).

[Skill and Chance]

NH (2022), NV (2022), AZ (2022), WV (2024), OH (2024)

But there are a variety of plausible combinations here (I do think this suggests a 2024 underperformance, though).

2022 is likely to be a closely fought battle somewhere between R+2 and D+3.  Most of the variance comes in 2024.

R+3 is far more likely than D+3 for 2022. I also disagree that MT is gone.

Oops, that was a typo.  I meant D+2 to R+3.  If Biden is down to near even approvals by this time next year, we can probably rule out the 2002 scenario and it would be EVEN to R+3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't be  Ds will be 52)48 and we still have NC and OH I'm 2022 and those will depend on a boom Economy

1962/98/2002 Prez with 50 PERCENT Approvals don't lose seats and Biden is at 55.

Rs should know 2002 after 911 Bush W net seats not lose seats, Rs want to blame the Trump Supporters on Biden, if we Elect Rs in midterms what will they do different than Trump did to get rid of Covid, otherwise Trump would still be Prez

They won't solve the Covid crisis in 2023 it's a worldwide problem

You don't elect Rs that give tax cuts to millionaires to solve a health crisis

[Frenchrepublican]

2022 : Republicans flip NH/AZ

2024 : Republicans flip WV/MT/OH

[Chips]

My guess:

2022: GOP flips AZ and GA (Sununu doesn't run in NH so that one stays Democratic)

2024: GOP flips WV, MT, OH.

[MargieCat]

Kelly, Hassan, and Warnock narrowly lose in 2022. But democrats pick up Fetterman in PA.

Democrats lose OH, MT, and WV in 2024.

[S019]

NV (2022), NH (2022), OH (2024), WV (2024), MT (2024)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My guess:

2022: GOP flips AZ and GA (Sununu doesn't run in NH so that one stays Democratic)

2024: GOP flips WV, MT, OH.

Biden has the exact same approval ratings as Bush W did in 2002, it's a long way til Nov, but Biden isn't gonna have substaining Approvals that was under Obama with UNPOPULARITY of Obamacare, it's bet positive

[Chips]

Kelly, Hassan, and Warnock narrowly lose in 2022. But democrats pick up Fetterman in PA.

Democrats lose OH, MT, and WV in 2024.

That's also a very real possibility.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WV-24
OH-24
MT-24

NH-22

AZ-22

[beesley]

2022: Either NH + AZ or NH or AZ with PA going Dem.
2024: OH, MT, WV. Democrats probably win the Presidency. Possibility of MT/OH staying Dem and still 55-45 if NV or GA goes GOP.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In addition to my most likely scenario, here are some alternatives:

1. Biden is a popular president and whoever wins the Democratic primary in 2024 is not

2022 - PA (R->D)
2024 - WV, OH, MT, NV, MI, AZ


2. Subpar 2024 Republican challenger

2022 - NH, AZ, NV
2024 - WV, OH