FTR, if Illinois were actually a crucial primary with several candidates, I think the campaigning would be a LOT more spread out than people realize. These are 2016 numbers, as I have not updated my spreadsheet in a while:
ILLINOIS: 12,801,539
Chicagoland: 8,488,857 (66.31%)
Chicago: 2,704,958
Instate Suburbs: 5,783,899 (2,498,541 and 3,285,358 in the other counties)
Downstate Illinois: 4,312,682 (33.69%)
- Northern IL: 1,182,137 (46.46% in Rockford/Quad Cities)
- Central IL: 1,921,129 (52.75% in Peoria/Bloomington/Champaign/Springfield)
- Southern IL: 1,209,416 (49.64% in St. Louis suburbs)
As you can see, more people actually live in Downstate than some might assume, and more of those people in Downstate live in decidedly NON-rural areas. I think it would be an interesting primary, and I absolutely do NOT think it would evolve into some "Chicagoland vs. Downstate" battle whatsoever. Rockford and Peoria have industrial, minority-heavy city centers with fairly affluent surrounding areas that are more Republican, while somewhere like Springfield has more culturally conservative areas surrounding a "pro-government"-type Democratic center and then you have somewhere like Champaign that is a more "college town liberal vibe."
There would obviously be a candidate playing all-in on Chicago and one playing all-in rural Downstate voters, but neither one would win on that support alone.
Dynamics would also vary between the parties. Dem candidates would gravitate more towards Chicago, and Reps towards Downstate.
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