Fabrizio, Lee & Associates: Trump at 51%, DeSantis and Pence deadlocked w/o Trump

[VAR]

February 20-March 2
1,264 registered (R) voters

w/ Trump

Trump 51%
Pence 9%
DeSantis 7%
Haley 6%
Romney 5%
Cruz 3%
Rubio 2%
Noem 1%
Cotton 1%
Hogan 1%
Hawley 1%
Pompeo 1%
Christie 0%
R. Scott 0%
T. Scott 0%
Undecided 12%

w/o Trump

Pence 19%
DeSantis 17%
Cruz 13%
Haley 8%
Romney 5%
Noem 4%
Pompeo 4%
Rubio 4%
Hawley 2%
Cotton 1%
Hogan 1%
T. Scott 1%
R. Scott 1%
Christie 1%
Undecided 20%

https://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000177-fec9-d750-a77f-fef9e57f0000

Oversampled NeverTrumpers imo.

[Tender Branson]

Trump's not at 51%.

He's around 80%.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's not at 51%.

He's around 80%.

None of the polls show anything like that.

[Tender Branson]

Trump's not at 51%.

He's around 80%.

None of the polls show anything like that.

The „polls“ aren’t reflective of the actual GOP base.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's not at 51%.

He's around 80%.

None of the polls show anything like that.

The „polls“ aren’t reflective of the actual GOP base.

I mean, the polls could be wrong, but if you're not going to draw any conclusions from them, then all you have left to base this on is your gut.  You're just guessing at "80%".  Nothing more.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I don't know if DeSantis at 17% in the Trump-less race is actually really where we are, but here are DeSantis's #s in the Trump-less scenario in the last 3 polls to actually include him as an option (the Harvard-Harris poll didn't include him as an option):

Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates: DeSantis at 17%, and 2nd to Pence.
McLaughlin & Associates: DeSantis at 9%, and tied with Cruz for 3rd, after Trump Jr. and Pence.
Echelon Insights: DeSantis at 8%, and tied with Trump Jr. for 3rd, after Pence and Cruz.

Whereas a couple of months ago, DeSantis was regularly getting just ~1 or 2% in every poll.  So *something* has happened that's boosted DeSantis's standing, and put him in whatever currently passes as the top tier in the polls that don't include Trump.  This is super early in the cycle for a potential candidate to be gaining name recognition, but DeSantis seems to have made some progress there.

[ElectionsGuy]

Btw, I don't know if DeSantis at 17% in the Trump-less race is actually really where we are, but here are DeSantis's #s in the Trump-less scenario in the last 3 polls to actually include him as an option (the Harvard-Harris poll didn't include him as an option):

Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates: DeSantis at 17%, and 2nd to Pence.
McLaughlin & Associates: DeSantis at 9%, and tied with Cruz for 3rd, after Trump Jr. and Pence.
Echelon Insights: DeSantis at 8%, and tied with Trump Jr. for 3rd, after Pence and Cruz.

Whereas a couple of months ago, DeSantis was regularly getting just ~1 or 2% in every poll.  So *something* has happened that's boosted DeSantis's standing, and put him in whatever currently passes as the top tier in the polls that don't include Trump.  This is super early in the cycle for a potential candidate to be gaining name recognition, but DeSantis seems to have made some progress there.

Right-wing media has propped him up quite a bit these last few months.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

More on this:

http://fabriziolee.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Political-Tribes-within-Todays-GOP.pdf

Without that full list of candidates:

"Q. If President Trump decided to run again for President in 2024, how likely would you be to vote for him in the Republican primary?"

Definitely vote 57%
Definitely not 16%
Unsure 27%