Would Rob Woodall have won if he ran in 2020?

[Woody]

?

[SnowLabrador]

Lean Yes. It would've been close, though.

[ElectionsGuy]

No. He scraped by in 2018 and Georgia R's did worse in 2020 than in 2018.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I'd be very impressed given that Karen Handel in neighboring GA-06 went from losing by 1 in 2018 to losing by 9 in 2020.

[TheReckoning]

[MT Treasurer]

As (also) evidenced by the GA runoff, this part of the state is turning into such a dead zone for the GOP that even considering the closeness of the Bourdeaux vs. McCormick race, the number of potential pro-incumbent split-ticket voters would have been so miniscule that it wouldn’t have changed the outcome. It’s not completely impossible that he might have held on in some sort of last hurrah, but I’m pretty sure that he loses by 1-1.5%.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd be very impressed given that Karen Handel in neighboring GA-06 went from losing by 1 in 2018 to losing by 9 in 2020.

Handel was not an incumbent in 2020. Woodall is a stronger candidate and almost certainly would have run well ahead of Trump.

[I’m not Stu]

There would have been a runoff if Rob Woodall ran.

[Roronoa D. Law]

?

[I’m not Stu]

Woodall would have lost in the hypothetical January 5 runoff. Bourdeaux would have won on the coattails of Warnock and Ossoff.

[forsythvoter]

I live in this district and the answer is no. Woodall would have ran behind McCormick and likely lost by 5-6% (I think Biden wont his district by 7%), instead of 2%. McCormick was actually a pretty good candidate in terms of credentials, how he framed his positions so that even voters who disagreed could respect his positions, and campaign energy (I had a doorknocker from his campaign and enjoyed the conversation). Frankly, I never got the sense Woodall even wanted the seat all that much (at least enough to put in a spirited effort to campaign for votes) so I doubt he would have run much of a campaign if he hadn't retired.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't think so. GA-7 flipped because of demographic changes so I'm not sure Woodall would have been able to find enough former republican, pro incumbent, split ticket voters to win a majority.

Besides it's not like if Woodall was particularly strong anyway, actually he was a fairly weak candidate, and if he once won by large margins it was mostly because of the huge red lean of his district during the ante Trump era.

Also, are you sure that the runoff system applies to House races too ?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, Woodall was a lazy incumbent and an under-performer to boot.  I agree with ForsythVoter that he’d have underperformed McCormick by quite a bit.

[Tekken_Guy]

Suburban Texas GOP candidates ran ahead of Trump. Why not Woodall?

[I’m not Stu]

I don't think so. GA-7 flipped because of demographic changes so I'm not sure Woodall would have been able to find enough former republican, pro incumbent, split ticket voters to win a majority.

Besides it's not like if Woodall was particularly strong anyway, actually he was a fairly weak candidate, and if he once won by large margins it was mostly because of the huge red lean of his district during the ante Trump era.

Also, are you sure that the runoff system applies to House races too ?

Everything except president.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

?

[VAR]

No. Demographic changes in Gwinnett are brutal for Republicans. Given that Asian/Hispanic turnout skyrocketed in the Atlanta metro area, this seat was always a lost cause.

[Roll Roons]

Actually, how is it that TX-24 stayed red even while GA-07 flipped? It was also a historically Republican but rapidly diversifying Trump-Biden seat in the suburbs of a major Sunbelt metro area whose incumbent retired after a scare in 2018.