The most fascinating change from 2016 to 2020
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 11:21:35 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  The most fascinating change from 2016 to 2020
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The most fascinating change from 2016 to 2020  (Read 338 times)
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 03, 2021, 02:18:12 PM »

It’s not Trump’s gains among blacks or Hispanics or Asians. Most of that gain came from third party voters. Nor is it Biden winning 26% of the evangelical vote compared to Hillary’s 16%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Exit_polling
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

Instead, it’s the LGBT vote. In 2016, they made up 5% of the population and Hillary won them 78-14. In 2020, they made up 7% of the population and Biden won them 64-27. The really interesting things to note here are 1) the obvious growth; 2) the increase in GOP votes with minimal efforts; and 3) the number of third party votes went up from 2016. In 2016, the only group more likely to vote third party were Mormons. These are really surprising numbers, and if it gets up to 10%, then a significant amount of the American population would have an unusually high rate of voting third party.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2021, 09:33:13 PM »

I'm hesitant to accept most exit polls, especially when it's polling a small subset of the population.  But it doesn't totally surprise me given:

a) Hillary was probably a better fit than Biden (which I don't think is totally deserved considering Biden came out for gay marriage before even Obama did)

b) Trump was a divisive jerk but he didn't typically use gays as a punching bag the way he did other groups.  He was generally liberal on LGBT issues for a Republican, except for Transgender issues.  But even on that he was much more liberal than the mainstream GOP.  Ironically he probably moved the country far to the left on gay rights (by pushing the GOP leftward on this issue or at least making it a non-issue) similar to the way he did on foreign policy.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 11 queries.