Can Hillary Clinton win?

[Michael Z]

Personally, I don't buy this idea that Hillary is unelectable. Sure, she's polarising, but so was Bush. She's seen as a radical, but so was Bush. A lot of people will vote against her, as many others did with Bush. No, I think she's in with a shout.

[Michael Z]

Her public positions on the issues are arrived at purely from political calculation (as was her decision to remain in her adultrous marriage) rather than from her real beliefs.  A big achilles heal for her at this time is her vote in favor of the Iraq war, which has alienated her to some degree from the radical left-wing nutcases that would normally be her most enthusiastic supporters.

But surely that's a good thing for her? If she distances herself from the far left of the party (though I personally wouldn't describe them as radical left-wing nutcases) she can portray herself as a moderate with the wider electorate. (I personally think she is fairly moderate, but as usual, perception is everything in politics.)

[Michael Z]

I agree that her support for the war hurts her, although as Michael mentioned, I hardly see why opposition to the war would be considered far left wing, considering the majority of Americans hold this position.

Indeed. I still can't figure out whether this labelling of anyone with a stance against the Iraq war as a raving extremist left-winger is a smear tactic or genuine naivete on behalf of the right, but the fact is that people like Lamont are moderates whose views resonate with the majority of the people. But then it's like Gore said, when the far right is in charge anyone to the left of them will be viewed as extreme, including moderates. Hopefully the November elections and possibly 2008 should change this.

[Michael Z]

She can win and she can win with the strongest possible challenger out there.

In making this claim, Conan has helped with an issue in this thread: defining electability.

If someone is going to say "it depends on the candidate opposing her" or "what the national mood is," that really means that person does not believe she's electable. Electable pertains more to the qualities of the candidate rather than the circumstances surrounding him/her.

But sometimes circumstances can help. For instance, Reagan wouldn't have had a cat in hell's chance in 1976 (and was regarded by some as an unelectable lunatic), but in 1980 the economy was going through a slump and the incumbent was generally regarded as incompetent, and so the circumstances were right for him.