Is Michigan moving R faster than PA?

[SN2903]

It clearly is. Trends in Wayne are real bad for dems as in Saginaw, Monroe, Bay, Muskeon, Eaton. So many WWC areas moving R.

[Pericles]

Michigan trended to the left by just under a point in 2020, while Pennsylvania trended half a point to the right. Plus Biden's margin in Michigan was better than in Pennsylvania. Compared to 2012, Michigan has trended 7 points to the right, while Pennsylvania has only moved about 5 points to the right, maybe that is what you meant. Still, it seems that Trump's 2016 win in Michigan was a bit more random luck than his wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The state with two multi-million metro areas is moving to the left relative to the state with one multi-million metro area, yes.

Curiously PA and MI aren't too different in terms of bachelors attainment (30.1% vs 28.1%) or advanced degree holders (11.8% vs 11.0%) although in terms of rank they are somewhat distinct (24 vs. 34 for BS and 19 vs 22 for advanced degrees).

[EastwoodS]

Even though PA looks more favorable according to 2020 results, it seems like it may be a giant tease for a while, Michigan definitely looks more promising, for sure.

[AGA]

I think so considering population shifts. The Detroit area is losing population relative to the rest of the state, which is not true for the Philadelphia area.

[DaleCooper]

Longterm I think PA is much more favorable to Democrats than Michigan.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I used to think so, but not anymore. Except for 2016 and 2008, MI has voted 2-4% to the left of PA since 1996.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Appalachia and the Ohio River Valley are a giant death zone for the Democrats. Western PA outside of Pittsburgh is turning into WV. Michigan has lots of WWC but it is not part of Appalachia. Michigan long term is more likely to stick with the Democrats.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Dems are doing a better job appealing to rural voters in MI, Biden made big gains in rural northern MI. Democrats have further room to erode in western MI outside of Pittsburgh.

[sting in the rafters]

Dems are doing a better job appealing to rural voters in MI, Biden made big gains in rural northern MI. Democrats have further room to erode in western MI outside of Pittsburgh.

Western PA's population is declining though whereas the Philly burbs+Lehigh Valley are growing. That population growth is what flipped Northampton County for Biden and caused Lehigh/Monroe/Northampton to trend blue. In addition, Casey won by double digits in a D+8 national environment, which demonstrates how the GOP needs super-heated rural turnout to even have a shot.


What's interesting is PA was the only state to have both a D-congressional district where Trump won the popular vote (Cartwright) and an R-congressional district where Biden won (Fitzpatrick)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I do think that the Democrats have a brighter future in Pennsylvania than they do in Michigan. If you look at population trends, the R-trending areas (Western and central PA) are bleeding in population while the more D-trending areas (Philly collar, Lehigh Valley, State College area) are gaining.

[Skill and Chance]

I expected this was the case, but then Biden really overperformed in Michigan vs. what happened in all the other competitive states.  On top of that, Biden likely had some home state advantage in PA and still only won by 1%.  It's enough to make me wonder if PA is gone outside of 2008 style blowouts going forward?

[Galeel]

Cautiously no, based on 2020 results, but I do think Dems have more room to fall in Michigan than in PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is in SN thread, he had John James winning twivmce and he was wrong about

New York Express and Snowlabrador still thinks John James is gonna win and be Gov in 2022

[Skill and Chance]

Cautiously no, based on 2020 results, but I do think Dems have more room to fall in Michigan than in PA.

It does seem like a state that could turn into a 10 point R win on a dime like Ohio did.  Let's see how the governor's race goes.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Wayne County has lost a million people since its prime. Philidelphia has lost 600K.

[Nyssus]

Currently? Michigan is not trending Republican faster than Pennsylvania, quite the opposite, in fact. However, extrapolating the trends we've seen in other parts of the Rust Belt, I think it's quite probable that this could become the case in the near future.

[Tekken_Guy]

There's a lot more room to fall in rural MI than PA. If John Moolenaar's district starts voting like John Joyce's, then the Dems will have a problem.

[Chips]

I'd say they're moving about the same.

[wbrocks67]

Longterm I think PA is much more favorable to Democrats than Michigan.

This. Republicans are more rapidly maxing out in the PA rurals where they still have more to drop in the suburbs.

[DabbingSanta]

They're both favorable for Republican growth moving forward.  They were both left-leaning states until 2016, and with the loss of white working class support, I expect they will continue to shift right in upcoming elections.  Pennsylvania has two major metros, whereas Michigan only has one, which is shrinking rapidly, but Michigan also has several smaller majority black cities and Ann Arbor.  Despite Pennsylvania leaning slightly farther to the right in recent presidential elections, I give them both a tossup rating for 2024, with similar odds of flipping. 

Michigan:
2004  +3.4 D   (+5.8 more D)
2008  +16.4 D  (+9.2 more D)
2012  +9.5 D  (+5.6 more D)
2016  -0.2 R  (-2.3 more R)
2020  +2.8 D  (-1.6 more R)

Pennsylvania:
2004  +2.5 D  (+4.9 more D)
2008  +10.3 D  (+6.1 more D)
2012  +5.4 D  (+1.5 more D)
2016  -0.7 R  (-2.8 more R)
2020  +1.2 D  (-3.2 more R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs have just as much chance in MI, PA and WI as D's have in FL, TX, Abbott and DeSantis arent losing and Evers and Whitmer are losing


Retread John James is running, for Gov what fun



As far as WI goes, Hillary was the only D to lose it aside from McGovern and Mondale, it voted for Jimmy Carter and Dukakis, and Jim Doyle was a D Gov 2003-2011

WI isnot an R state, its a purple state

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The Rs have just as much chance in MI, PA and WI as D's have in FL, TX, Abbott and DeSantis arent losing and Evers and Whitmer are losing

Oh, but I see how Susan Collins winning ME pretty much convincingly turned out to be great for Donald Trump chances upballot in Maine.

Stop linking all those races together. Your takes are absolutely horrible.

Also none of these are on the ballot in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs have just as much chance in MI, PA and WI as D's have in FL, TX, Abbott and DeSantis arent losing and Evers and Whitmer are losing

Oh, but I see how Susan Collins winning ME pretty much convincingly turned out to be great for Donald Trump chances upballot in Maine.

Stop linking all those races together. Your takes are absolutely horrible.

Also none of these are on the ballot in 2024.

As I told you before stop thinking you are a moderator, you are just another user as I am

It's a free website, you can post anything political, it's a mock Election not real life voting, if I was voting in real life of course my predictions would be more accurate

[Senator Spark]

If you asked me this question circa 2017 I would have had an affirmative response. But now, I'd say PA is more R than MI.