Rate ME-02 for 2022

[HawkeyePierce]

I happen to live in this district. I love Golden, and I can't see the district lines changing all that much for the 2022 midterms.

I recognize he may be in danger because of the midterm effect and because of the lean of the district (of course, it is still early 2021 and a lot can change).

Golden did win by 6 in 2020, in an otherwise disappointing House cycle for Democrats.

How do you see this one going next year?

[I’m not Stu]

Historically, ME-02 included Waterville, which is now in ME-01. Might Waterville be moved back to its historic district?

[Tekken_Guy]

I think one of the main reasons Golden hung on was because Crafts was an abysmal candidate who barely campaigned. Someone serious could actually beat him.

[Frenchrepublican]

As of today Tossup, by election day it will have probably moved to Tilt R

[coloradocowboi]

Lean D. If he outperformed Biden that much with Trump on the ballot, I don't see how he is in imminent peril when we know plenty of Trumpistas won't show up to vote.

[NewYorkExpress]

Tilt R, but this one could in either the Lean R or Lean D column depending on who Golden faces.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup to tilt R. If he hadn't overperformed so spectacularly in 2020 I would be writing him off completely, but, as disappointed as I am with some of his votes, I think he might be capable of narrowly weathering a potential Republican favored national environment.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm not sure how redistricting will be in Maine.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Redistricting could favor Dems if they go for an east/west divide.

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats control the legislature. Maybe a slightly more Democratic district is drawn.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Jared Golden really needs to stop voting like a Republican, though.  His voting record has gotten noticeably more conservative lately, most likely in an attempt to survive in 2022.  However, I think history, by and large, shows us that if voters desire a conservative candidate, they will pick the actual Republican over the pseudo Republican every time.

[MT Treasurer]

"Bold" take: Lean R (closer to Likely R than Tossup) and won’t be particularly close in the end even though polling shows a slight Golden advantage (with people ignoring the large percentage of undecideds/Biden disapproval numbers among said group), everyone hypes up "strong incumbent" and Senator-by-2025 Jared Golden, and Atlas spends months bashing the "poor" campaign/candidate quality of his R opponent. Really hard to think of a D-held district where the fundamentals are less favorable to Democrats than this one in a midterm under a Democratic president.

[beesley]

Lean R if the district has minimal changes. Bruce Poliquin should run again if he still wants to be in politics.

[S019]

Lean/Likely R, Golden won’t survive a Biden midterm honestly

[GoldenMainer]

While Dale Crafts didn't raise much money, he had ads on tv and radio with Trump's endorsement in them. Trump and Trump Jr. also visited the second district last cycle and made appearances with Crafts. And Jared still won. I'm not saying he's invincible but people lay the "Crafts was weak" argument on a bit thick in my opinion. Crafts is a former State Rep. (not a nobody) and being in a wheelchair certainly garnered some sympathy for him.

Golden is smart. His ads were far better than Gideon's last cycle. He works on local and nonpartisan issues. His vote on the covid relief bill was smart in my opinion (I'm seeing praise from Republicans on social media and he needs them to win in this district). If he wants to vote no when his vote doesn't even matter and then support other Democratic issues like the Equality Act- cool. He'll probably run for Senate when Angus retires anyways.

As for 2022, I'd say somewhere between Tossup and Tilt R.

[Meatball Ron]

He'll probably run for Senate when Angus retires anyways

Hopefully he pulls a Gillibrand (or a reverse Sinema, haha) and pivots left when he goes from representing a conservative-leaning district to a liberal-leaning state

[GoldenMainer]

Hopefully he pulls a Gillibrand (or a reverse Sinema, haha) and pivots left when he goes from representing a conservative-leaning district to a liberal-leaning state

I bet he would to an extent. When he first won, he joined the Progressive Caucus and supported Medicare for All. He's also big on getting money out of politics.

[Meatball Ron]

Hopefully he pulls a Gillibrand (or a reverse Sinema, haha) and pivots left when he goes from representing a conservative-leaning district to a liberal-leaning state

I bet he would to an extent. When he first won, he joined the Progressive Caucus and supported Medicare for All. He's also big on getting money out of politics.

Yeah agree, he isn't generic moderate; he's only seemed to vote right of the party average on specific issues (while actually positioning himself as left of the party average on others, like healthcare and voting rights)