Predict NY GOV 2022 margins
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Author Topic: Predict NY GOV 2022 margins  (Read 456 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: March 02, 2021, 02:20:07 PM »

If it is:

Tom DiNapoli vs. Harry Wilson
Tom DiNapoli vs. Alexis Weik
Tom DiNapoli vs. Lee Zeldin

Is there other candidates?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2021, 02:27:50 PM »

Governor Kathy Hochul wins a full term with over 60% of the vote.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2021, 03:16:38 PM »

The race would be safe D basically no matter what, the margin doesn't really matter, at least D+15 anyway.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2021, 03:22:31 PM »

Safe R if Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D if any other Democrat is the nominee.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2021, 02:33:54 PM »

Safe R if Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D if any other Democrat is the nominee.
If only, if only you were right.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2021, 09:51:45 PM »

Cuomo as Democratic nominee (incredibly unlikely after tonight's WSJ report): Extremely slight GOP upset

Literally any other Democrat as nominee: Lean Dem
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2021, 12:09:10 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2021, 05:41:43 AM by Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) »

Dem wins by 15-20%, can't see anything less than a 10% margin

This is looking very similar to the Newsom recall/re-election where folks outside the state are thinking/hopeful that the incumbent gets seriously crippled when, at most, they'll lose half the margin they won by 4 years prior.

Doubly so since there'll be plenty of serious Dems lining up to primary Cuomo should he run for another term.
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beesley
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2021, 05:24:06 AM »

D+15 or so. Room to grow or slide depending on the nominee.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2021, 10:03:35 AM »

I think Cuomo would, if not pushed out and renominated, somewhat underperform and finish close to his 2014 margin. I don't see the GOP getting past 43%.

If one of the other serious Dems like Hochul or James is the nominee, I could imagine them winning by 18 or 20+ pts.

DeBlasio (unlikely he gets the nomination) would also underperform, but still win easily by double digits.
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Chips
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2021, 11:37:46 PM »

Cuomo: 9.64%

Other Democrats: 21.57%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2021, 11:56:25 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2021, 12:00:50 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Regardless if it Cuomo or another D they will only win by 8-10 pts not 15 depending on 3rd party 54.0/46.0

Regardless, this is definitely Cuomo's last term2022-2026, I don't see him surviving after this anymore
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2021, 12:35:26 AM »

Regardless if it Cuomo or another D they will only win by 8-10 pts not 15 depending on 3rd party 54.0/46.0

Regardless, this is definitely Cuomo's last term2022-2026, I don't see him surviving after this anymore

Don't you mean 2018-2022?
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