MI - EPIC-MRA: Whitmer +1 over Candice Miller

[VAR]

February 19-25
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Whitmer (D, inc.) 46%
Miller (R) 45%
Undecided/refused 9%

Whitmer approval: 52/47 (+5)
Whitmer fav: 49/44 (+5)
Biden fav: 49/45 (+4)
Miller fav: 34/12 (+22)
Trump fav: 40/55 (-15)
Harris fav: 46/42 (+4)

https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2021/03/EPIC-MRA-2021-February-SW-Survey-FREQ-MEDIA.pdf

[Mr.Phips]

Miller already said she isn’t running.

[kwabbit]

This poll is weird. The approval includes the 15% who rated her performance as fair as part of disapproval, which is a little odd because that seems like a neutral response. So people have been saying her approval as 52/32, but the horse race is very close, so it does seem that people who say she’s doing fair are not very likely to vote for her.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's a pretty good poll for the GOP considering how heavily college educated voters are oversampled.

[Meatball Ron]

It's a pretty good poll for the GOP considering how heavily college educated voters are oversampled.

Counter-point:

Miller already said she isn’t running.

This poll is weird. The approval includes the 15% who rated her performance as fair as part of disapproval, which is a little odd because that seems like a neutral response. So people have been saying her approval as 52/32

Also FWIW, the final poll from this group in '18 had Whitmer winning by 5 when she actually won by 10

[SnowLabrador]

I expect Whitmer to lose.

[BudgieForce]

I was prepared to yell "too many undecideds" but that's a reasonable amount of undecideds for being nearly 2 years out. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Whitmer to lose.

Yeah and you predicted John James to beat Peter's and D's won

[MT Treasurer]

Amusing how Whitmer is polling about as "well" as Evers (especially against Candice Miller of all people!) despite being considered far less vulnerable/a stronger candidate than him (for whatever reason). This pollster does seem to have adjusted its methodology after 2020, but again, based on state fundamentals and the likely environment in the Midwest and irrespective of any polling, Whitmer has only a little more breathing room than Evers, and it’s not exactly looking good for her.

Of course this survey and the other swing state polls we’ve gotten recently might make one wonder whether those Biden +>20 national approval polls ought to be considered outliers...

[WD]

Early, but this seems to be a pure tossup, and given the type of environment that 2022 will likely be, it’s probably closer to Tilt R. I don’t think they’ll be that much deviation between this race and Wisconsin either. Either she and Evers win, or they both go down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Amusing how Whitmer is polling about as "well" as Evers (especially against Candice Miller of all people!) despite being considered far less vulnerable/a stronger candidate than him (for whatever reason). This pollster does seem to have adjusted its methodology after 2020, but again, based on state fundamentals and the likely environment in the Midwest and irrespective of any polling, Whitmer has only a little more breathing room than Evers, and it’s not exactly looking good for her.

Of course this survey and the other swing state polls we’ve gotten recently might make one wonder whether those Biden +>20 national approval polls ought to be considered outliers...

There is in an investigation going on I'm the insurrection and Rand Trump is gonna have to fact legal proceedings eventually, WI is a plus 1/D, MI is a plus 3 D and PA is a plus 2 D with Biden at 52% not 40% Trump we should hold them

John James is the only R candidate to challenge Whitmer is is a 2X loser

[kwabbit]

Amusing how Whitmer is polling about as "well" as Evers (especially against Candice Miller of all people!) despite being considered far less vulnerable/a stronger candidate than him (for whatever reason). This pollster does seem to have adjusted its methodology after 2020, but again, based on state fundamentals and the likely environment in the Midwest and irrespective of any polling, Whitmer has only a little more breathing room than Evers, and it’s not exactly looking good for her.

Of course this survey and the other swing state polls we’ve gotten recently might make one wonder whether those Biden +>20 national approval polls ought to be considered outliers...

I think it's likely that the same polls that overestimated Biden in 2020 are also overestimating his approval as well.

Have pollsters actually disclosed what methodological changes they undergone to fix their Democratic bias? Maybe some have done nothing and continue to overestimate Biden. Maybe these swing-state pollsters that have shown close races have done something. Maybe they've just begun doing a Trafalgar-style crude adjustment. Who knows.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Amusing how Whitmer is polling about as "well" as Evers (especially against Candice Miller of all people!) despite being considered far less vulnerable/a stronger candidate than him (for whatever reason). This pollster does seem to have adjusted its methodology after 2020, but again, based on state fundamentals and the likely environment in the Midwest and irrespective of any polling, Whitmer has only a little more breathing room than Evers, and it’s not exactly looking good for her.

Of course this survey and the other swing state polls we’ve gotten recently might make one wonder whether those Biden +>20 national approval polls ought to be considered outliers...

I think it's likely that the same polls that overestimated Biden in 2020 are also overestimating his approval as well.

Have pollsters actually disclosed what methodological changes they undergone to fix their Democratic bias? Maybe some have done nothing and continue to overestimate Biden. Maybe these swing-state pollsters that have shown close races have done something. Maybe they've just begun doing a Trafalgar-style crude adjustment. Who knows.

D's are gonna win WI, PA and MI and NC Senate is gonna turn blue, but TX, and FL D's aren't gonna win them DeSantis running with Rubio is a shoe in


PPP polls in MI, WI and PA is the same as Mason Dixon in FL

[Chips]

Just as I expected, This is very likely going to be a close race.