A time traveller tells you that the house will be 222-213? What districts do you suspect flipped?
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  A time traveller tells you that the house will be 222-213? What districts do you suspect flipped?
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Author Topic: A time traveller tells you that the house will be 222-213? What districts do you suspect flipped?  (Read 297 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: March 04, 2021, 08:25:42 PM »

A time-traveller comes and tells you that there will be a 222 to 213 Democratic majority in the house after 2020. What seats would you have guessed flipped?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2021, 12:04:24 AM »

Assuming this was in 2019:
MI-03 flips R from Independent
MI-08 flips R
WI-03
MN-07
IA-01
VA-07
NJ-03
NY-22
ME-02
SC-01
GA-06
OK-05
NM-02
UT-04
CA-21
NY-11
Democrats pickup NC-02 and NC-06


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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2021, 01:13:04 AM »

I'd expect the same map as we had in real life, except...
-Democrats hold on in CA-39, CA-48, and FL-27
-Republicans pick up PA-08 and WI-03 and narrowly hold on to GA-07

Here are the races I'd assume were decided under 2%:

GOP
-CA-21
-FL-26
-GA-07
-IA-02
-TX-23
-PA-08
-WI-03

Dems
-AZ-01
-CA-48
-IA-03 (closest race)
-ME-02
-MI-08
-NJ-03
-VA-07
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beesley
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2021, 11:32:14 AM »

Probably:

Dems gain: NC-02, NC-06 and GA-07.

GOP gain: CA-21, FL-26, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-14, MN-07, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-02, NY-11, NY-22, OK-05, PA-08, SC-01, UT-04, VA-07

GOP hold: CA-25, all other GOP seats won in 2018 not mentioned here.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2021, 11:37:06 AM »

Honestly, I probably would have guessed that the Dems still flip TX-23 (presumably the time traveler didn't also tell me about Dem underperformance with Hispanic voters / in South Texas in particular)
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