So, what's up with Miami-Dade?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Between 2000 and 2016, the county swung left every cycle, going from D + 6 in 2000 to almost D +30 in 2016, and then in 2020, it snapped back to D + 7. Was 2020 just some sort of fluke, or is it indicative of future trend? If it is indicative of the long term prospects of the county, why did everything change so dramatically in 2020 after a pretty consistent trajectory?

Ultimately, FL is one of the few states keeping the GOP viable by narrowly voting to the right of the nation, and Miami-Dade will play a huge role in how FL votes in the future.

[TML]

We'll have to see how it performs over the next several election cycles (especially if a non-Trumpian Republican is at the top of the ticket) before we can jump to any conclusions about whether 2020 was a trend or a fluke. It should be noted that for US House races, the combined 2020 popular vote margin in this county was D+14, which meant that down ballot Democrats generally outperformed Biden here.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Gonna' float the theory that the unusually hot weather in 2020 exacerbated whatever anti-lockdown/"approval of 45's economy" R swing was already going to happen.

Miami-Dade and literally all of South Texas are the obvious answers here. I was a doomer on Biden's Hispanic support but SHEESH!

It was unusually hot in Miami last year; I wonder if that had any impact on people’s lockdown attitudes or the election results.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-04-14-miami-april-record-warm-low-80-degrees-hottest-year-to-date

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1250382143479369729?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/miami-hottest-week/

"the collapse for Democrats wasn't just with Cubans. It was across all racial groups."

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1325809061384888321
Comments are interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gonna' float the theory that the unusually hot weather in 2020 exacerbated whatever anti-lockdown/"approval of 45's economy" R swing was already going to happen.
[snip]

This is far from implausible, especially given how relatively idiosyncratic the motivations of voters can get.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

One word:
Latinos

[sting in the rafters]

Cuban-Americans are long-known for being culturally conservative, as most are Catholic. This entails support for law enforcement, strong opposition to abortion, and of course a vicious animosity toward the Castro regime. It goes without saying that Trump emphasized all of those planks throughout his presidency. On the other hand, Biden promised to relax travel restrictions to Cuba and strengthen ties with their growing knowledge economy. The former resonated a lot more with social conservatives.

[Non Swing Voter]

2020 is more likely to be the outlier than 2016.

Shutdowns significantly hurt travel destinations like Miami, Las Vegas, Hawaii, all of which "shockingly" trended to Trump in an environment where most other places swung left.  There is almost no way any Republican matches this margin in 2024, even if it's Trump again or DeSantis or Scott.

[mpbond]

2020 is more likely to be the outlier than 2016.

Shutdowns significantly hurt travel destinations like Miami, Las Vegas, Hawaii, all of which "shockingly" trended to Trump in an environment where most other places swung left.  There is almost no way any Republican matches this margin in 2024, even if it's Trump again or DeSantis or Scott.

Interestingly, wealthier tourist destinations swung hard towards Biden. Places like the Hamptons, Cape Cod, areas along Lake Michigan, and Ski Towns across the west all saw double digit swings towards Biden. Vacationers here are more likely to own or rent homes in these areas rather than stay in hotels like in Miami, Vegas, etc. so I wonder if that has anything to do with it

[SAAuthCapitalist]

I knew many, many, people in Miami. Trust me it was not a fluke at all. Florida is gone for Democrats overall now.

[Non Swing Voter]

I knew many, many, people in Miami. Trust me it was not a fluke at all. Florida is gone for Democrats overall now.

Sure...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I think the chief cause, among many many others, is the machista culture and strongman politics that are fostered here

[SAAuthCapitalist]

I knew many, many, people in Miami. Trust me it was not a fluke at all. Florida is gone for Democrats overall now.

Sure...

Cubans are very conservative and so are Venezuelans. Even other Latin American demographics are trending to the right.

Only liberal transplants from NY +Haitans and Puerto Ricans kept it blue in 2020.

[Green Line]

We'll have to see how it performs over the next several election cycles (especially if a non-Trumpian Republican is at the top of the ticket) before we can jump to any conclusions about whether 2020 was a trend or a fluke. It should be noted that for US House races, the combined 2020 popular vote margin in this county was D+14, which meant that down ballot Democrats generally outperformed Biden here.

Mario Diaz Balart was unopposed in FL-25.  The way that Florida handles uncontested races means that no votes are reported at all from that district, which skewed the US House popular vote total in Miami-Dade toward the Democrats since the district itself is heavily R.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I think the chief cause, among many many others, is the machista culture and strongman politics that are fostered here

Trump is a authoritarian thug like Franco, Mussolini, and Peron.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2020 is more likely to be the outlier than 2016.

Shutdowns significantly hurt travel destinations like Miami, Las Vegas, Hawaii, all of which "shockingly" trended to Trump in an environment where most other places swung left.  There is almost no way any Republican matches this margin in 2024, even if it's Trump again or DeSantis or Scott.

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

[Non Swing Voter]

Cubans were already solid Republican voters and they are losing their influence, even in Miami Dade.  Do I think FL is going to trend left?  No, I think it's probably going to stay stubbornly in the middle, with a slight Republican bent.  But there are way too many cross currents in the state to say it's trending significantly one way.  It's fairly clear, for instance, that the Orlando area is going to continue to grow and trend left.

[Person Man]

The lockdowns hit Miami hard. No one was hiring there last year. People saw Trump as the guy who could keep things open no matter how bad things got.

[Wormless Gourd]

There's different factors, so it can be any one of these or all of them if you want.
- Turnout was up, so older, more conservative and foreign-born Latin Americans turned out. Since 2018 newly registered Hispanic voters were overwhelmingly over the age of 35 in Miami-Dade. New black and white voters were largely under 35.
- An FIU study came out this year that showed the most conservative generation of Cuban immigrants are the recent one. 76% of 2010-2015 arrivals are registered Republicans and Cubans have remained in the top 5 and top 10 countries to send immigrants to the US for decades. Cubans possibly got more conservative with new arrivals.
- Latin Americans that aren't Cuban swung swung harder to Trump according to an Equis study. There's less info about the specifics of this but a similar dynamic may be going on with Cubans, where the most recent arrivals are the most conservative(Venezuelans would be such a group I'd bet). Miami-Dade remains a center for middle class and upper class Latin American expats.
- Other important groups in Miami-Dade were ones that Trump surged or improved with nationwide; Eastern Euros, Afro-Caribbean peoples and conservative Jews are some of them. Educated, English-speaking and native-born non-Hispanic whites aren't plentiful there and without them there's only ground to lose with 2016-2020 trends.
- Besides demographics, the issues put much of Miami-Dade at odds with Dems in 2020; foreign policy being one, the need for a reopening for many is another. Stimulus checks were a boon as well for those not really keyed into partisan politics.
- State Rs and the Trump campaign also put in aggressive moves to rebuild Republican strength in the county. Spanish-language TV and radio messaging, Hispanophone conservative YT channels gained popularity, registration drives, etc. Cubans have more say in FLGOP then FL Dems from what I understand.

Overall the electorate got more conservative and the GOP/Trump campaign made the correct call to aggressively pursue it.
Does it last? Maybe. The newest Cuban arrivals(and possibly other LatAms) being highly conservative can be concerning for Dems. As is all nearly groups in the county being susceptible to R messaging. At the same time the Biden admin can still prove itself with leadership on Cuba issues and foreign policy in LatAm. Pre-2020 it had been trending D cycle after cycle because of generational turnover and less immigrant turnout. I still don't expect Republicans to fall back into the low 30s for a while with all the new voters in the county.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Feels like we're gonna have a new Miami-Dade thread every month until 2024 (And possibly further than that)

[Vosem]

The lockdowns can't be the only reason because Dade's rightward trend was already pretty evident in 2018; it was the reason Gillum lost...