D margin of victory in VA-GOV?
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  D margin of victory in VA-GOV?
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Poll
Question: How much will the Democrat win the Virginia gubernatorial election by?
#1
15+
 
#2
12.5-15
 
#3
10-12.5
 
#4
7.5-10
 
#5
5-7.5
 
#6
2.5-5
 
#7
0-2.5
 
#8
R win (too much rain in NOVA)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: D margin of victory in VA-GOV?  (Read 1017 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: February 28, 2021, 07:06:19 PM »

?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2021, 07:45:21 PM »

I'll say 5-6 points.
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Chips
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2021, 07:45:47 PM »

8.31%
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2021, 07:56:31 PM »

Seven points.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2021, 10:45:24 PM »

Northam by 11 is my prediction, given the way the state's going politically
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2021, 11:28:19 PM »

Northam by 11 is my prediction, given the way the state's going politically

He couldn't run again if he wanted to
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2021, 01:24:04 AM »

Northam by 11 is my prediction, given the way the state's going politically

He couldn't run again if he wanted to

Shoot, forgot about that. Dem by 11 then
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2021, 08:50:53 AM »

D+6 to D+8 unless republicans nominate the crazy woman, in which case D+10 to D+15 would be plausible.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2021, 09:06:29 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2021, 09:10:41 AM by EastOfEden »

If we assume the national environment was consistently D+8 as long as Trump was not on the ballot during the Trump years, then VA-GOV is likely to swing right a little from 2017 when it was D+9, but not too much, as it's an inelastic and left-moving state. So I'll say D+7.

Titanium Likely D regardless of the margin. No one is beating Terry without a third party vote-split.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2021, 09:39:47 AM »

D by 3 in this early stage
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2021, 10:01:38 AM »

D+7.8
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2021, 10:29:53 AM »

D+6 to D+8 unless republicans nominate the crazy woman, in which case D+10 to D+15 would be plausible.

This, except I could see it being much tighter if Dems nominate Fairfax (very unlikely), or GOP winning if Dems nominate Carter (even more unlikely)
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kwabbit
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2021, 05:21:18 PM »

McAuliffe vs Chase - 11 points
McAuliffe vs moderate R - 7 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Chase- 5 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Moderate R - 2 points

This race is losable for Dems if Fairfax or Carter become the nominee, but McAuliffe is looking pretty safe and will carry the state comfortably.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2021, 05:25:58 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2021, 05:48:56 PM by Roll Roons »

McAuliffe vs Chase - 11 points
McAuliffe vs moderate R - 7 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Chase- 5 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Moderate R - 2 points

This race is losable for Dems if Fairfax or Carter become the nominee, but McAuliffe is looking pretty safe and will carry the state comfortably.

McAuliffe would beat Chase by more than 11. I think he'd win by at least 15-20. She is MTG-level crazy.

I wonder if she might lose reelection to her Senate seat in 2023. Kaine narrowly carried her district.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2021, 05:45:04 PM »

McAuliffe vs Chase - 11 points
McAuliffe vs moderate R - 7 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Chase- 5 points
Fairfax or Carter vs. Moderate R - 2 points

This race is losable for Dems if Fairfax or Carter become the nominee, but McAuliffe is looking pretty safe and will carry the state comfortably.

McAuliffe would beat Chase by more than 11. I think he'd win by at least 15-20. She is MTG-level crazy.
Lol I thought she was more Boebertesque than MTG. Like a notch less crazy than MTG.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2021, 07:17:19 PM »

5/7 pts but it's safe D like NJ, the reason why it's important, is that the outparty usually win NJ and VA when they have a big midterm, 2009 and 2017 saw Rs in 2009/ and Ds in 2017/ sweep both of them and had big midterms, Rs may not have a big midterm in 2022/ since both seats are gonna still be held by D. Biden is at 52% not 40% Trump

Watch out for the D wave in 2022 230H seats and 54/46 SENATE
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2021, 11:10:09 AM »

McAuliffe + 8.5%.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2021, 02:02:19 PM »

2016 POTUS vote:D+5.3, 3.2% left of national
2017 GOV:D+8.9
2018 Congressional House Vote:D+13.8, 5.2% left of national
2019 State House Vote:D+9.4
2020 POTUS vote:D+10.1, 5.7% left of national

Anywhere from D+9 to D+12. College-educated suburban voters show up in every election, rural non-college educated voters don't.
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Starmerite2024
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2021, 01:46:23 PM »

D+6 to D+8 unless republicans nominate the crazy woman, in which case D+10 to D+15 would be plausible.

Even Justin Fairfax would beat the crazy woman (I'm presuming you're referring to Amanda Chase)
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2021, 02:36:24 PM »

I'll go 8%, no less than 4%
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Frodo
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2021, 02:12:49 AM »

Double-digits (at least +10), assuming Terry McAuliffe as our nominee, and with Amanda Chase as his opponent.  Oh, and we're keeping the House of Delegates securely in Democratic hands in this scenario. 
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Kevin
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2021, 12:13:19 PM »

I think the GOP stands a shot given that Trump is out of office along with the current Dem-controlled state government's handling of COVID. Terry Mcauliffe is more vulnerable than he appears (Should he be the D nominee, which isn't guaranteed).

However, for the Republicans to stand a chance, they need to nominate someone not named Amanda Chase.
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