Anoka County 2024?

[HawkeyePierce]

Went from R+2.6 in 2012, to R+9.6 in 2016, to R+1.9 in 2020.

How will it go in 2024?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D/Tossup, by a hair.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Tilt/Lean R.

[Adam Griffin]

It's been a tease for 20 years now. I don't know much about it in terms of if there are any demographic shifts occurring in the county, but assuming there aren't and Biden isn't immensely popular in October 2024, lean R.

[Chips]

It's been a tease for 20 years now. I don't know much about it in terms of if there are any demographic shifts occurring in the county, but assuming there aren't and Biden isn't immensely popular in October 2024, lean R.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've always really liked this county's name for some reason.


Anyway, trends to appear to be working in favor of Democrats here, but they also appeared to be working in favor of Democrats in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. This place is even more Titanium Tilt than Stanislaus, apparently.

Tossup, I guess.

[neostassenite31]

Lean to Likely R.

Anoka County is a pretty weird in terms of its demographics. Unlike newly "suburbanized" counties like Scott and Carver, most of the southern to central portions of this county were already developed by the 1980s and 1990s.

This place historically has had a significant manufacturing presence in sectors such as medical device production (which Minnesota is well known for), machine tools, and plastics, with bedroom communities full of blue-collar workers similar to other exurban counties like Wright and Sherburne. This is especially true in central and northern portions of Anoka County.

The southern tip of Anoka County "dips" into the Twins Cities core with dense suburban precincts in Columbia Heights and southern Fridley. More secular, white-collar commuters and a higher minority population, which is fairly typical for most precincts in the TC core, characterize this section of the County.

On net the white non-college segment still prevails: Anoka county is about 59% white non-college (the highest share of all seven metro counties). Historically, the DFL's blue collar and union strength allowed them to win Anoka County throughout much of the latter half of the 20th century. In the Trump era, two competing trends largely cancelled each other out: 1). the exodus of white non-college workers from D to R, as exemplified by the rightward shift from 2012 to 2016; 2). D favoring population growth in the southern portions of the county + exodus of white college voters from R to D, as exemplified by the leftward shift from 2016 to 2020.          

[LiberalDem19]

This one I feel is Lean R.

The southern part of the county is deep blue, the question is how much bluer it can get.
The northern part is deep red with a bunch of Bachmann types (think fake rednecks in flannels and 4 by 4s), but the question is if the GOP is maxxed out up there.

That leaves Coon Rapids and Blaine as the truly swingy parts. How they vote will determine where Anoka goes as a whole. I feel like the DFL carries them again, but not by enough to flip the county.

[Orwell]

This one I feel is Lean R.

The southern part of the county is deep blue, the question is how much bluer it can get.
The northern part is deep red with a bunch of Bachmann types (think fake rednecks in flannels and 4 by 4s), but the question is if the GOP is maxxed out up there.

That leaves Coon Rapids and Blaine as the truly swingy parts. How they vote will determine where Anoka goes as a whole. I feel like the DFL carries them again, but not by enough to flip the county.

I don't want to rely on a place called "Coon Rapids" for voters

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt D/Tossup, by a hair.

Not sure what your reasoning is... Trump cratered in the Minneapolis area so an area which stayed with him is unlikely to flip unless you are expecting a dem landslide win.

[un]

If I had a gun up to my head, I would say Tilt R/Tossup, though Tilt D/Tossup is also a very realistic scenario given Democratic suburban gains.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D/Tossup, by a hair.

Not sure what your reasoning is... Trump cratered in the Minneapolis area so an area which stayed with him is unlikely to flip unless you are expecting a dem landslide win.

I expect Dems to do better in MN in 2024 than 2020 more generally, so I expect Anoka to very narrowly flip. But it's a 50/50 thing for me.
I don't really think that if Trump won an area it's unwinnable for Dems either. Sounds like it's putting way too much stock in Trump's personal appeal and assuming that will transfer to any Republican, period.