Rasmussen: Jack Carter(D) cuts into John Ensign's(R) lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-07-31

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Ahhhh, interesting news ! I already rated NV highly Rep. with Ensign winning by slightly more than 60%. Now it´s between toss-up and lean Rep. Go Carter !

[Flying Dog]

This is just one poll. Don't get too excited. I hope its true though. There are a few factors in Carters favor:

1.Name Recongnition
2.Not too popular incumbant
3.Nevada is trending democrat.

[Joe Republic]

I still don't see how name recognition could be that much of a positive factor for Jack Carter.  Don't forget that Nevada voted against his father both times.

[Kevin]

Ensign still is going to win easily no matter what Carter can come up with.

[Flying Dog]

I still don't see how name recognition could be that much of a positive factor for Jack Carter.  Don't forget that Nevada voted against his father both times.

Good Point. But people atleast don't hear his name and say ''Who?''. They know who he is. Also maybe he has been blazing the campaign trail tirelessly and people like what he has to say. All of this is speculation of course. I was in Las Vegas in June. There is massive development going on around the city. Many different demographics are moving there. Including the democrat-leaning Hawaiians and alot of pacific rim country folk. And a A LOT of hispanics. Kerry also cut bush's marigan in the state in 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ensign is the favorite to win but he hasn't sewn up the race yet. We have to wait for more polling.

[Flying Dog]

Ensign is the favorite to win but he hasn't sewn up the race yet. We have to wait for more polling.

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[Adlai Stevenson]

This is such unexpected news; although I would be cautious to say that Nevada could be a competetive race, it certainly shows that Ensign is not as safe as originally thought.  I read an article in The New York Sun about Carter's campaign, he recently toured the Northern parts of Nevada where Kerry got 30% and Bush won 90% in some counties and precincts.  He is campaigning as a populist in the mould of his father's 1976 campaign.  Apparently, in this political climate people are responsive to Democrats more than ever and Nevada, as a swing-state should be at least competetive this year.

http://www.nysun.com/article/37141

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But this race still lean towards the republicans until Carter can get within 5 points.

[7,052,770]

WOAH!  I'd written this seat off, but I better write it back onto the possibilities list anyway...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race seems eerie like the VA race. It first stated off as competetive, like Webb getting to within 7 points and it ended up being noncompetetive. It all depends on the poll sample. Until the Dems put this race as a competetive race on their website, which they only have AZ and TN and the other 5 vulnerable republicans, I am not going to take this race seriously.

[Flying Dog]

Clark County containes over 4/5 of Nevada's population. That includes Las Vegas, Summerlin, Boulder City, and Henderson. Las Vegas is democrat-leaning while Summerlin is 50/50 along with Boulder and Henderson.
Kerry won Clark county, albiet barely and he was swamped in all other areas of the state. He still got 48% of the vote though. So if Carter can get the same amount of the vote in Clark county and reduce Ensigns marigans in the other parts of the state. Carter has a better chance than many think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

However, I am not changing my map until congressional quarter, npr, and Cook has it out of republican favored to lean republican. In other words likely republican.

Also, I will put it to you this way: AZ is tougher than TN, VA is tougher than WA, and NV is tougher than NEB.

[© tweed]

I don't believe these numbers for a split second.  Scottie's a wackjob, isn't he?

[Eraserhead]

I don't believe these numbers for a split second.  Scottie's a wackjob, isn't he?

He has been pretty good in the past. I wish he would give us some new CT numbers.

[Downwinder]

I had hopes for this race earlier this year with Goodman as a possible candidate, and then written it off when Goodman made it clear he wouldn't run.  I need more polling, and I'm not changing my prediction that Ensign will win yet, but this race is back on my radar.  The question, is Nevada trending to the left, or leaping to the left??  Growth in the state can barely be comprehended, and could set political logic on it's head.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is trending to the left, but not fast enough to get Ensign out of office. The state is a military state and has a lot of vets and they will be proudly to have Ensign back.

[Flying Dog]

It is trending to the left, but not fast enough to get Ensign out of office. The state is a military state and has a lot of vets and they will be proudly to have Ensign back.

Its also a state where Its biggest city (Las Vegas) is adding almost 100,000 residents every 5 years. Its unpredictable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Bush changed NV, from a tossup blue to lean tossup red. Reno which voted for Dems in the past, has steadily trended red since 2000. Believe I thought this race over and over, and Ensign who is endorsed by the firefighters union in NV is not going to lose.

Believe me I want Jack Carter to win but this poll reminds me of the TN poll that had it a 2 point race, the AZ poll that had it 7 point race and the VA poll that had it a 7 point race. Until these races are neck and neck consistantly, I am not going to take them seriously. Anyway Cook came out with the new political report and has this solid republican.

[Flying Dog]

But Bush changed NV, from a tossup blue to lean tossup red. Reno which voted for Dems in the past, has steadily trended red since 2000. Believe I thought this race over and over, and Ensign who is endorsed by the firefighters union in NV is not going to lose.

Believe me I want Jack Carter to win but this poll reminds me of the TN poll that had it a 2 point race, the AZ poll that had it 7 point race and the VA poll that had it a 7 point race. Until these races are neck and neck consistantly, I am not going to take them seriously. Anyway Cook came out with the new political report and has this solid republican.

Dont get me wrong, I still think Ensign is going to win but I wouldnt engrave it yet. In 2000 Bush won by about 3.5%. In 2004 he won by about 2.5%. Nevada was one of the few states that Kerry cut Bush's marigins in. I also believe endorsments are overratted. They help but do not win the election. (Remember Gephardt in Iowa). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think with the Dems not fielding a strong enough challenger to field against Gibbons, eventhough Gibson would have an easier time than Titus and she is going to win the primary, he is going to carry Ensign over the top. But like you said it is going to be by a slimer margin maybe a 48-32% not by 20 points. But it is going to be more than 10.

[Flying Dog]

I think with the Dems not fielding a strong enough challenger to field against Gibbons, eventhough Gibson would have an easier time than Titus and she is going to win the primary, he is going to carry Ensign over the top.

It might be the other way around. I think we both agree there shoud be more polling on this race to see what is what.

[AuH2O]

Ensign's a lock. Jack Carter is a nobody.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was no way that Carter was going to win. His father didn't even win NV. Also, Carter is losing in the cash advantage very heavily.