What could be the biggest state surprises in the apportionment/population data ?

[Tender Branson]

Which are out in 2-4 weeks ...

Will CA report more than 40 million and TX more than 30 million (after estimates being slightly below) ?

Will NC actually come out ahead of GA ?

MI above 10 million again ?

WA above 8 million already ?

Did CO overtake WI ?

OK at 4+ million ?

Has NV passed IA ?
 
Is WV closer to 1.7 than 1.8 million ?

DE above 1 million ?

Does MT get a 2nd seat ?

[The Mikado]

The biggest surprise, almost by definition, is who wins the photo-finish race for the last seat, NY-26 or AL-07. It's going to affect both states maps quite a bit whether NY loses 2 and AL loses none or whether they both lose one.

[Stuart98]

The biggest surprise, almost by definition, is who wins the photo-finish race for the last seat, NY-26 or AL-07. It's going to affect both states maps quite a bit whether NY loses 2 and AL loses none or whether they both lose one.

The biggest surprise would be neither of those states getting the 435th seat.

[Pink Panther]

The biggest surprise I see that is possible is Minnesota keeping it's 8th seat, due to its citizens known for turning out more than most of the country.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

[kwabbit]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

This would be a pleasant surprise of the redistricting cycle. I don't think I can wait another decade for Idaho to get its third seat lol. In all seriousness, however, Idaho's 2 seats will probably be ludicrously overpopulated by 2030. They'll be over 1.1 million people each in all likelihood.

In a fair 3 district map, the Boise seat could be competitive as soon as 2022 and could become increasingly blue and swingy as the decade goes on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

This would be a pleasant surprise of the redistricting cycle. I don't think I can wait another decade for Idaho to get its third seat lol. In all seriousness, however, Idaho's 2 seats will probably be ludicrously overpopulated by 2030. They'll be over 1.1 million people each in all likelihood.

In a fair 3 district map, the Boise seat could be competitive as soon as 2022 and could become increasingly blue and swingy as the decade goes on.

2022 is...quite a bit early for a Boise CD to be competitive. NV-02 might sooner elect a Dem than a compact Boise district.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.msg7811978#msg7811978

[kwabbit]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

This would be a pleasant surprise of the redistricting cycle. I don't think I can wait another decade for Idaho to get its third seat lol. In all seriousness, however, Idaho's 2 seats will probably be ludicrously overpopulated by 2030. They'll be over 1.1 million people each in all likelihood.

In a fair 3 district map, the Boise seat could be competitive as soon as 2022 and could become increasingly blue and swingy as the decade goes on.

2022 is...quite a bit early for a Boise CD to be competitive. NV-02 might sooner elect a Dem than a compact Boise district.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.msg7811978#msg7811978

Not that it would be competitive always, but where Dems could occasionally have some fluky wins, like OK-5 or NM-2. Essentially where the Republicans couldn't do whatever they wanted and still win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

This would be a pleasant surprise of the redistricting cycle. I don't think I can wait another decade for Idaho to get its third seat lol. In all seriousness, however, Idaho's 2 seats will probably be ludicrously overpopulated by 2030. They'll be over 1.1 million people each in all likelihood.

In a fair 3 district map, the Boise seat could be competitive as soon as 2022 and could become increasingly blue and swingy as the decade goes on.

2022 is...quite a bit early for a Boise CD to be competitive. NV-02 might sooner elect a Dem than a compact Boise district.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.msg7811978#msg7811978

Not that it would be competitive always, but where Dems could occasionally have some fluky wins, like OK-5 or NM-2. Essentially where the Republicans couldn't do whatever they wanted and still win.

Ok, I suppose that is true. Not all kinds of competitive come in the same flavor after all.

[Skill and Chance]

ID pulls an upset and gets a 3rd seat. Considering how small the state is and how fast it's been growing, it doesn't take as big of an error as you might think.

This would be a pleasant surprise of the redistricting cycle. I don't think I can wait another decade for Idaho to get its third seat lol. In all seriousness, however, Idaho's 2 seats will probably be ludicrously overpopulated by 2030. They'll be over 1.1 million people each in all likelihood.

In a fair 3 district map, the Boise seat could be competitive as soon as 2022 and could become increasingly blue and swingy as the decade goes on.

2022 is...quite a bit early for a Boise CD to be competitive. NV-02 might sooner elect a Dem than a compact Boise district.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.msg7811978#msg7811978

Not that it would be competitive always, but where Dems could occasionally have some fluky wins, like OK-5 or NM-2. Essentially where the Republicans couldn't do whatever they wanted and still win.

Ok, I suppose that is true. Not all kinds of competitive come in the same flavor after all.

Idaho has a redistricting commission in its state constitution, so it is very likely that an all-Boise area district will be drawn whenever it gets a 3rd seat. 

[Cokeland Saxton]

Montana gaining a second seat would be a non-surprise to me.  I would be surprised, however, if ID-3 came into being a decade early.

[Hope For A New Era]

Idaho has a redistricting commission in its state constitution, so it is very likely that an all-Boise area district will be drawn whenever it gets a 3rd seat. 

The way the Republican Party is going, it's more likely that the thing being drawn when the state gets a third seat will be a constitutional amendment.

They're going to spiral the districts out of Boise, like what's probably going to happen in Oklahoma (even though Oklahoma County is exactly the perfect size for a district right now).

[Skill and Chance]

Idaho has a redistricting commission in its state constitution, so it is very likely that an all-Boise area district will be drawn whenever it gets a 3rd seat. 

The way the Republican Party is going, it's more likely that the thing being drawn when the state gets a third seat will be a constitutional amendment.

They're going to spiral the districts out of Boise, like what's probably going to happen in Oklahoma (even though Oklahoma County is exactly the perfect size for a district right now).

Any amendment repealing the commission would have get a 2/3rds majority in both chambers and then pass a statewide referendum.  In a world where Boise has moved far enough left that a competitive ID-03 is viable, they will likely lose the 2/3rds majority by then (remember, the existing state legislative districts will be commission drawn).