Just How Gone Are Ohio And Iowa?
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  Just How Gone Are Ohio And Iowa?
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Poll
Question: Are Ohio and Iowa permanently gone for the Democrats?
#1
Completely Gone
#2
Somewhat Gone
#3
A Little Gone
#4
Too Early To Say
#5
Not Gone At All
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Just How Gone Are Ohio And Iowa?  (Read 1147 times)
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2021, 10:00:04 AM »

Turnout is more important than people on this forum think. 2018 was a blue wave because the Deplorables didn't turn out. The Georgia runoffs were blue because the deplorable didn't turn out.

The reason Trump improved in rural OH/IA is turnout. Trump didn't win new voters in rural OH/IA by a larger margin than he did in 2016, but he won new voters by a larger margin than Romney did in 2012.

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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2021, 10:07:31 AM »

Turnout is more important than people on this forum think. 2018 was a blue wave because the Deplorables didn't turn out. The Georgia runoffs were blue because the deplorable didn't turn out.

The reason Trump improved in rural OH/IA is turnout. Trump didn't win new voters in rural OH/IA by a larger margin than he did in 2016, but he won new voters by a larger margin than Romney did in 2012.



No, 2018 was a blue wave because of midterm dynamics.

On the one hand the voters of the opposition party are fired up while the voters of the party which holds the White House are more complacent, between them the few swing voters are disappointed and want some check and balance. The idea that dem voters are going to vote in drove in every future election is absurd, dems are not immune to midterms dynamics, see 2010/2014.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2021, 02:29:43 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2021, 02:34:56 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Drop off in midterms was 60/33% in 2010/2014 we are in a VBM minorities and youngsters turned out in big numbers in 2020 and were complacent that's why our base especially didn't come out in 2010/ but recovered somewhat in 2014.  They will vote and in Cali we are getting huge turnout for our Mar 2nd primary and June GE for state senate due to VBM not same day voting

That's why 2022 won't be a typical midterm, I am confident D's will win every competetive Senate race including NC and OH is a question mark pending our Gubernatorial nominee.

NC Senate isn't foregone until PPP polls NC which is headquartered in NC

That's why Newsom won't be recalled, he passed 600 and our base will save him in VBM, Rs are wasting their time on the recall, Cox lost 63/37
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