Just How Gone Are Ohio And Iowa?

[Typhoon2000]

In 2016, Trump massively overperformed in both states and pre-election polls in 2020 predicted that Trump would win the states again but by a much smaller margin suggesting Democrats would still have a chance in future elections. But once again Trump massively overperformed in the two states leading to questions about wether the two states are completely gone for Democracts.

[BudgieForce]

At this point, I'd put them in the same category as Virginia and Colorado. Once seen as swing states but now will only flip in a wave.

Edit: I'm not even sure Colorado would flip in a wave anymore. But that was the consensus after 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio isnt gone when if we have a Robust Recovery next yr and Tim Ryan is running against Josh Mandel. Rs think this Recession is gonna last forever and Mahoning County isn't gonna vote R again next time just like FL isn't gonna vote only 10 pts for Miami for the D.


We have to make Ohio next yr, Sherrod Brown is up in 2024 we don't want to lose him

IA, doesn't have enough AA, but OH has 12 Percent

Rs unlike D's don't look at pbower2A approvals Biden is holding his own at 52 Percent, not 40 Percent Trump

[here2view]

Between "Somewhat Gone" and "Completely Gone"

I won't say completely gone because I reserve that for states like Alabama...but Iowa and Ohio are more than somewhat gone IMO. It would take a great regional candidate for the Democrats, a fantastic environment, and a horrendous GOP candidate — and even then that may not be enough.

[mileslunn]

Iowa is completely gone and while never say never, I see it going the same way as Missouri in short term.  Too rural and too white for Democrats to realistically win.

Ohio is gone for short term but with a larger African-American population and more urbanized, its demographics are not as bad for Democrats as they are in Iowa.  Still only way I see Dems retaking state is they flip Delaware county, win Cincinnati suburbs and Columbus metro area continues to grow thus having more clout.  I don't see them getting back to around 40% in rural areas like they did under Obama nor do I see them winning back many of the smaller industrial communities.  For example somewhere like Jefferson County, Ashtabula County I think are gone.  Lorain County and Mahoning County may go blue in some elections, but not by the kind of margins they historically did.  So for this decade, Ohio is gone, but if demographic changes occur in right manner, maybe possible to win back in 2030s.  I think in future elections, Democrats have better shot at winning Texas than they do Ohio.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Iowa is gone. There are however, specific regions Democrats can consolidate further gains in, such as where I live in the Des Moines suburbs. Democrats had hopes that the state was still elastic enough for them to make statewide breakthroughs, but I think this past election cycle dashed those hopes. Shoring up their bases of support and registering their dissent is probably what the next decade looks like.

[mileslunn]

Iowa is gone. There are however, specific regions Democrats can consolidate further gains in, such as where I live in the Des Moines suburbs. Democrats had hopes that the state was still elastic enough for them to make statewide breakthroughs, but I think this past election cycle dashed those hopes. Shoring up their bases of support and registering their dissent is probably what the next decade looks like.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas County turns blue despite fact Obama didn't win it either time.  New Democrat coalition shows them doing better in suburbs than past.  But at same time most rural counties Obama won both times are probably gone and not coming back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 4. Trump's wins are just not sufficient evidence, given Trump's personal appeal was very strong in the Midwest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's will win a red state if we are in recovery next yr, we aren't in recovery yet and most likely NC and OH since Reynolds and DeSantis have sky high approvals. The election isn't until next year

The Economy won't be in Recession forever

[Bush did 311]

We'll have to see how they perform for a Republican that isn't Trump. That said, I think the type of Democrats at the top of the ticket have been a poor fit for those states, and I see no sign of the party changing that strategy any time soon.

[TML]

I want to see how these states perform with a non-Trumpian Republican candidate at the top of the ticket before passing judgment on how winnable they are for Democrats now.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't see any scenario in which either state decides the election.  I don't even think there's a credible campaign strategy for campaigning in either of them unless there's some unique characteristic about a particular candidate or issue one year. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't need either state but if the Economy comes back, next yr OH will vote D over IA unless Grassley retires and by 2024/ the Economy will be back and both are winnable, unless Harris is the nominee

[Podgy the Bear]

I want to see how these states perform with a non-Trumpian Republican candidate at the top of the ticket before passing judgment on how winnable they are for Democrats now.

The results of the Georgia Senate runoff indicated that just enough Trumpistas did not show up, and that made the difference.  It won't be enough to swing Iowa but could make Ohio more competitive in future elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Especially, if Josh Mandel is the GOP nominee, in 2022 and Rs don't have no one to challenge Brown in 2024, Jim Jordan is damaged good.

We will find out once we have a Gubernatorial nominee to take on DeWine, he only beat Cordray by 3 not 20 like Rs act like DeWine won by

Winning NC and OH is key to keeping the House in D hands

If we only focus only on WI and PA Senate, we may fall short of our Majority

[Hope For A New Era]

Too early to say. I need to see more election results with Trump not on the ballot. 2018 suggests that Trump is the anomaly here and that they have not moved nearly as far to the right as they may seem to. Of course, 2018 could also have been a dead cat bounce for the IA and OH Democrats. It remains to be seen.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Too early to say. I need to see more election results with Trump not on the ballot. 2018 suggests that Trump is the anomaly here and that they have not moved nearly as far to the right as they may seem to. Of course, 2018 could also have been a dead cat bounce for the IA and OH Democrats. It remains to be seen.

If Trump is not on the ballot, the deplorables don't turn out, while the Democratic base does as long as Trump is in the news cycle. Trump was very active and engaged trying to whip up his MAGA cult with endorsements and rallies for Congressional Republicans, but the cult still sat out 2018.

2022 seems to be heading towards a similar dynamic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Those who bring up the potential difference between Trump and a more generic Republican have a point, but I would still expect them to go R in the end, just possibly by not as much as eight points. They're like 90% gone.

I will say that Iowa is more gone than Ohio. With Ohio in particular there is at least some chance that Brown could get re-elected again but his victories are almost certainly going to get less and less impressive going forward should he win at all. If not even Sherrod Brown can win the state anymore it will be completely gone for sure.

[Hope For A New Era]

Too early to say. I need to see more election results with Trump not on the ballot. 2018 suggests that Trump is the anomaly here and that they have not moved nearly as far to the right as they may seem to. Of course, 2018 could also have been a dead cat bounce for the IA and OH Democrats. It remains to be seen.

If Trump is not on the ballot, the deplorables don't turn out, while the Democratic base does as long as Trump is in the news cycle. Trump was very active and engaged trying to whip up his MAGA cult with endorsements and rallies for Congressional Republicans, but the cult still sat out 2018.

2022 seems to be heading towards a similar dynamic.

They didn't sit out 2018! Republican turnout was very high in 2018. It's just that Democratic turnout was even higher. Really, it's pretty amazing that the blue wave was as big as it was. It approached 2010/2014 levels, without the White-House-controlling-party having a spectacular turnout crash. I can only imagine how big the wave might have been without all those Trump rallies.

So if Trump isn't doing rallies in 2022...and Biden is popular...and Democrats have the higher-propensity base now...it could be a very neutral midterm indeed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio was very R during the 2010s due to fact Boehner from OH was Speaker and the Rs game home state advantage, that's why Rs won WI due to fact Paul Ryan and Walker were popular there. They are no longer there

Kasich has great sway in Ohio and will campaign hopefully for Ryan like he did Biden. Things are different, and Josh Mandel is a weak candidate

Yes, DeWine too can be defeated, he only won in 2018/ by 3 not 20 and OH isn't FL, DeSantis has the benefit of running with Rubio not Rick Scott.

D's need to triage FL, for 2022/ not 2024

[kaikea1]

At the presidential level, both are too far gone. Maybe some statewide offices in Iowa and Sherrod Brown could win again against a weak opponent in a wave, but otherwise they’re gone.

[MARGINS6729]

Iowa is probably gone now but Ohio isn't- it takes a big effort to win Ohio and the Biden campaign rightfully didn't prioritize it. Democrats need to work much harder there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan has a chance once Cranley announces for Gov, we don't have a Gubernatorial nominee yet,  DeWine beat a lackluster Cordray by only 3 pts not 20 and we must win OH, we don't want to lose Brown in 2024

Cranley is a Titan he is only 46 yrs old Mayor from Dayton

Pollsters assume DeWine is a foregone conclusion, DeSantis is, due CPAC is in FL

[beesley]

Cranley is a Titan he is only 46 yrs old Mayor from Dayton

From Cincinnati actually, so even better.

[Frenchrepublican]

Too early to say. I need to see more election results with Trump not on the ballot. 2018 suggests that Trump is the anomaly here and that they have not moved nearly as far to the right as they may seem to. Of course, 2018 could also have been a dead cat bounce for the IA and OH Democrats. It remains to be seen.

If Trump is not on the ballot, the deplorables don't turn out, while the Democratic base does as long as Trump is in the news cycle. Trump was very active and engaged trying to whip up his MAGA cult with endorsements and rallies for Congressional Republicans, but the cult still sat out 2018.

2022 seems to be heading towards a similar dynamic.

Both of you are really delusional.

In 2018 democrats did relatively well in OH/IA (and the word relative is important because they still lost most of the major statewide races) because it was a great year for democrats, that's it.

In 2018 democrats lost the different Ohio statewide races by an average margin of 4 points and 2018 was a D+8 year, thus OH was R+12 in terms of relative vote, and it is the same thing for the House vote (R+4 vs D+8 at the national level), in 2020 Biden lost OH by 8 while winning the PV by 4,5, OH leaned 12.5 points to the right of the country. 2020 was not an anomaly, it's just that the climate was better than in 2018.

The idea that Ohio/Iowa are dem leaning states if Trump is not on the ballot is absurd.