WY-AL 2022 Election Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure if a megathread already exists for this district, but we all know that Liz Cheney is under heavy fire from the Trump base of the GOP due to her vote to impeach Trump in 2021, and her dislike for Trump overall. Polls also seem to show her losing pretty handidly to primary challengers like Anthony Bouchard and Chuck Gray (the latter of which hasn't declared a candidacy but is on the wikipedia list of potential candidates along with Cheney herself). So will she be successfully primaried? And if so, by who?


My prediction: Yes, she gets primaried by Chuck Gray after he receives a key Trump endorsement.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Bouchard and Gray have announced their candidacies.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Bouchard and Gray have announced their candidacies.

If multiple people run, that's good news for Cheney. She won her first primary with less than 40% in a field of nine candidates.

[Real Texan Politics]

Bouchard and Gray have announced their candidacies.

If multiple people run, that's good news for Cheney. She won her first primary with less than 40% in a field of nine candidates.

I think it really comes down to who Trump endorses though.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Bouchard and Gray have announced their candidacies.

If multiple people run, that's good news for Cheney. She won her first primary with less than 40% in a field of nine candidates.

I think it really comes down to who Trump endorses though.

Most likely, although while part of me wants to say Wyoming would be a good Trump/NeverTrump test, he did get his highest percentage of the vote there. The "Utah problem" didn't exactly cross the borders.

Not that it matters but Rand Paul will endorse the same person Trump does because he's always hated Liz Cheney for rather obvious reasons.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

95% chance Trump endorses Bouchard.

[Lognog]

If there are like 10 challengers she survives

[VAR]

Indisputably great news for Cheney.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1370483943292698626

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Indisputably great news for Cheney.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1370483943292698626

Wouldn't this be bad for Cheney, since the pro-Trump people don't have to worry about a vote split?

[Vespucci]

Indisputably great news for Cheney.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1370483943292698626

Wouldn't this be bad for Cheney, since the pro-Trump people don't have to worry about a vote split?

It would be for future elections, but the tweet says the change wouldn't go into effect until after 2022.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1384145570319638529?s=19

Lol

[Vespucci]

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1384145570319638529?s=19

Lol

At least maybe I’ll stop confusing him with Scott Dworkin now

[MarkD]

According to Wikipedia, there are now 9 Republicans running in the Republican primary, including Cheney and 8 opponents. For one of those 8 opponents, it's a rematch, because he had run against Cheney in 2016 as well. Does having more and more opponents possibly help Cheney even more?

[Nutmeg]

According to Wikipedia, there are now 9 Republicans running in the Republican primary, including Cheney and 8 opponents. For one of those 8 opponents, it's a rematch, because he had run against Cheney in 2016 as well. Does having more and more opponents possibly help Cheney even more?

For sure. She won her first primary with less than 40% of the vote. Against an increasing number of challengers, the coalition she needs to cobble together shrinks. However, if a runoff system is implemented by 2022, her odds fall precipitously.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1384145570319638529?s=19
Lol

I'm sure that there is someone out there with greater sense of underserved self-importance than Scott Presler, but I'm yet to come across them.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to Wikipedia, there are now 9 Republicans running in the Republican primary, including Cheney and 8 opponents. For one of those 8 opponents, it's a rematch, because he had run against Cheney in 2016 as well. Does having more and more opponents possibly help Cheney even more?

Yes. However, I do suspect she is so negative that even If it's a splintered mess she could still lose. This is the key problem Republicans seem to have taking on incumbents, too many of them want to be the 'fighter' so they run when they know their name ID and credentials are inferior to others in the race. They could easily hand a few borderline incumbents like Meijer, Rice the victory that way. But I think Cheney and Kinzinger will likely go down no matter what. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Honestly, Liz Cheney would get 20-30% max in the primary. But so many batsh**t crazies are willing to primary her that it's doable.

If she wins the primary, I could honestly see depressed Republican turnout (this is the only federal race), and if the Democrats pick Trauner (again), I actually could see a close race (for WY, so 55/60-45/40).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She probably loses

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Honestly, Liz Cheney would get 20-30% max in the primary. But so many batsh**t crazies are willing to primary her that it's doable.

If she wins the primary, I could honestly see depressed Republican turnout (this is the only federal race), and if the Democrats pick Trauner (again), I actually could see a close race (for WY, so 55/60-45/40).

Imagine wyoming flipping and the house being 218D-217R LOL

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Honestly, Liz Cheney would get 20-30% max in the primary. But so many batsh**t crazies are willing to primary her that it's doable.

If she wins the primary, I could honestly see depressed Republican turnout (this is the only federal race), and if the Democrats pick Trauner (again), I actually could see a close race (for WY, so 55/60-45/40).

Cheney winning the primary is one of the few situations where I could see a Joe Miller scenario arising

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/CSTribune/status/1395710994668826624?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/CSTribune/status/1395710994668826624?s=20

Endorsement withdrawn, but still not supporting Cheney.

[Roll Roons]

Wow, MAGA guy turns out to be a POS. Who would have ever guessed such a thing?

[Real Texan Politics]

Hopefully Chuck Gray isn’t this bad.

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/CSTribune/status/1395710994668826624?s=20

That was very quick