Were You Shocked By Trump Overperforming In Florida?

[Typhoon2000]

What do you think?

[Devils30]

The margin a little but him winning FL was hardly a surprise. I just thought it would be another 1% win either way.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes.  It really set the tone for the night.  I really thought Trump was going to win until the Arizona call. 

[KaiserDave]

I knew Trump was gonna over perform his 2016 performance with Latinos in Florida. I just thought Biden would eat some of that back with whites, seniors, and blacks.

When I saw just how dramatically Trump was overperforming with Latinos, and Biden's growth with seniors, whites, and blacks either not materializing at all, or being very weak, I was shocked.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Me thinkz many, many Democrats, particularly them Bernie Bros, ought to apologize to Hillary.

Also...
Simple Machines: "How long do you want your poll question to be?"
Typhoon2000: "Yes."
Simple Machines: "No!" 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definately, considering how much if shifted right relative to the nation despite being such a large diverse state with the country swinging left overall. Biden doing worse in South FL was always on my radar as Clinton did pretty well to begin with, but I thought he would make up more ground elsewhere in the state. At face value, FL would seem like a blue-leaning state; large minority population, highly urban, ect, but it isn't for a lot of cultural reasons, and I think I forgot that.

[Mr. Smith]

A dip was to be expected in South Florida, but not one so dramatic.

I also expected better results in the I-4 Corridor that proved decisive in 2016, but despite the Midwest shift, it didn't appear to change quite so dramatically.

[AlterEgo]

Not at all. Early voting precincts were absolutely mobbed every day in my area. I knew turnout was going to be high and who all those people were coming out to support.

[Typhoon2000]

While situation in Florida isn’t nearly as bleak as Ohio and Iowa for Democrats (99.9% chance of those two states never voting for a Democrat again), Can they still take back Florida in the future?

[Alben Barkley]

Not really. It’s Florida, I’m well past the point of being able to be shocked by the state. I wouldn’t have been surprised by anything from either candidate winning by high single digits to a 2000 level close race.

[Alben Barkley]

While situation in Florida isn’t nearly as bleak as Ohio and Iowa for Democrats (99.9% chance of those two states never voting for a Democrat again), Can they still take back Florida in the future?

Forever is a mighty long time. Montana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana, etc. have all voted Democratic in my lifetime. Georgia and Arizona went from voting D to solid R to back to voting D again. Hardly inconceivable Ohio and Iowa could be competitive again even in the relatively near future, let alone EVER. Times change. States change. Parties change. Demographics and coalitions change. All of this can lead to dramatic shifts in how states vote.

[brucejoel99]

No, because I learned to have zero faith in my state a long, long time ago.

[mileslunn]

Absolutely.  Not surprised Trump won the state, although I thought Biden would narrowly take it, but surprised at size of shift.  At beginning of year, a 4 point Trump win seemed quite plausible, but I assumed after COVID-19 and DeSantis disastrous handling that would hurt GOP amongst seniors.  It did for a while but seems Trump overcame that.

For Hispanics, was surprised how well Trump did in Texas, but less so in Florida.  I knew Cuban community hates socialism so not surprised Trump gained there although surprised Trump saw a 7 point jump in support in Osceola County as there it is more Puerto Rican and I assumed with his botched handling of hurricane there, he would do worse not better amongst Puerto Ricans.

[Fusternino]

No, the early vote in FL was one of the earliest indicators that the polls were wrong again to the point I thought Trump would win.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Yes. I only expected Trump to win FL by 1-2% (something like 49.5-49.0 or 49-48).

I doubt Trump will break 40% with FL Latinos or 50% of the overall vote, but I still think he will win the state.

Wow, this aged terribly lol. Trump getting even 40% of the FL Latino vote would’ve exceeded my expectations.

[Bush did 311]

No, because I learned to have zero faith in my state a long, long time ago.

Sigh... I know the feeling. Hang in there Florida Man.

[TML]

Definitely. As I mentioned before, most statewide races in FL during the 2010s were decided by less than 2%, so I had expected that trend to continue. That trend would have continued if Biden hadn't tanked in places like Dade & Osceola.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Rubio is helping DeSantis win in FL, James Harrison said that D's are gonna competete everywhere, even NC and OH.

But both DeSantis and Rubio have a 57% approval rating.

FL also has a Cuban Embargo, I can see Dems winning OH, NC, WI, NH, PA aside from FLin a wave, we don't have a poll from Ohio and Cranley is gonna challenge DeWine whom is a young 46 mayor from Dayton

We must expand the map and win NC especially so we don't lose the House, we only lost NC by 1.5%

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I knew the FL Democratic party is a piece of sh*t, but I didn't expect them to do so bad in Miami-Dade

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew the FL Democratic party is a piece of sh*t, but I didn't expect them to do so bad in Miami-Dade

D's don't want to believe but there is a Cuban Embargo in FL, that's why DeSantis and Rubio have a 57% approval rating my
The best thing for Biden to do is lift the Cuban Embargo like Obama tried, if we get 52 seats and see how Cuba performs and if we do that, then FL will come around. But, as long as Cuban Embargo is on there, it's an R state

We can always put it back if Cuba doesn't perform

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Definitely. As I mentioned before, most statewide races in FL during the 2010s were decided by less than 2%, so I had expected that trend to continue. That trend would have continued if Biden hadn't tanked in places like Dade & Osceola.

Biden also collapsed with Puerto Ricans in the Orlando area as well.

[un]

I always assumed he was gonna win Florida, but not by 3.3%.

[Independents for George Santos]

Yes - I didn't think we'd reached the point where Florida was voting to the right of Georgia.

[kaikea1]

I thought he would win it. Then again, I also thought he would win Georgia.

[DaleCooper]

In hindsight, Trump winning Florida (by a lot, even) was practically written in the stars. Aside from terrible polls, all the evidence on the ground indicated that Republicans had an advantage. They were making big gains in voter registration, were over-performing in the early vote, seemed to be making big gains with Cubans, and had the advantage of a good ground game as opposed to none at all. I was surprised by the disaster in Florida, but I really shouldn't have been.