When Will North Carolina Vote For A Democrat Again?

[Typhoon2000]

What do you think?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2024, due to fact Jackson maybe Senator after all, it was too early for Rs to write off D's chances in NC due to CUNNINGHAM collapse

[If my soul was made of stone]

Prior to 2020, my hope was that Obama's 2008 performance in the state would be like Bill Clinton's Colorado performance in 1992: a warning shot of coming partisanship that took a bit of internal realignment to realize fully. However, given how hard the state's rurals, whose lack of polarization relative to other Southern states afforded Obama his win, have continued bleeding hard and had an influx of more conservative populations from elsewhere, and while some of them are bound to have higher Dem floors due to increased educational attainment, colleges, or Appalachian appeal to crunchy folk, it's unclear when it'll stop. The exurbs have largely stagnated too, with counties like Johnston or Union not remotely poised to go the way of Cobb or Gwinnett in the state's southern neighbor. North Carolina is fundamentally in trend limbo, and it's very unclear when it could go blue again, although it's by far the most likely Trump 2020 state to flip in the next decade.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think NC is going to be a bellwether for a while.  I would not be surprised if Democrats win it in one of 2024/2028 but not both. 

[Devils30]

NC trended Democratic in the 2000s until 2012 then stalled out after (didn't reverse but just stayed around R+6 ish).

Some people have gone from too optimistic on NC to too pessimistic. Even with Trump improving in almost every county along NC/VA, NC/SC border from 2016-20 and only 6% gains in Wake, Mecklenberg for Biden, NC  still moved to an only 1.35% R win. If the Rs can't start making gains with rural blacks and their rural gains stall out, population patterns in Raleigh and Charlotte might finally trap the GOP. It isn't like FL where Fort Myers, Villages, Naples, Daytona are all fast growing R areas.

[Neptunium]

I think NC is going to be a bellwether for a while.  I would not be surprised if Democrats win it in one of 2024/2028 but not both. 

No way for now, Trump got only 232 college vote but still wing NC, this place is reserved for WI, PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think NC is going to be a bellwether for a while.  I would not be surprised if Democrats win it in one of 2024/2028 but not both. 

No way for now, Trump got only 232 college vote but still wing NC, this place is reserved for WI, PA.

That was due to fact CUNNINGHAM had a sex scandal, we won't know about NC until we get a poll and we won the Gov race in 2020