The 8 Most Vulnerable Senate Democrats in 2024 (The Hill)

[MT Treasurer]

1. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
2. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) (mostly because of a likely primary challenge)
3. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
4. Jon Tester (D-MT)
5. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
6. Bob Casey (D-PA)
7. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
8. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)

A (surprisingly) very good list overall, don’t find any (serious) fault with this.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3748266-the-eight-most-vulnerable-senate-democrats-in-2024/

[Illiniwek]

3-10 are such a group of great Senators. Please don't take Sherrod Brown from us Ohio. He is a treasure.

[Gracile]

Stabenow is highly overrated here; she's certainly not less vulnerable than Casey.

[Spectator]

Lol they couldn’t even make it a top 10 list since Texas is the only vulnerable GOP seat

[Meatball Ron]

Casey more vulnerable than Baldwin? Huh? The more entrenched / popular incumbent who is also in the bluer state?

I disagree with Stabenow’s placement too, to be clear, but at least there you could maybe make the argument that she’s in a bluer state. The PA vs WI placement makes negative sense.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol they couldn’t even make it a top 10 list since Texas is the only vulnerable GOP seat

It’s only a list of vulnerable Senate Democrats, but probably for good reason given the map.

Anyway, I don’t think it’s certain that Stabenow loses before Casey (or that Brown loses before Tester, for that matter) — both are highly challenger-dependent. At the end of the day, MI is a bluer state than PA and Casey is just as vulnerable to the "evolved" line of attack as Stabenow is to the "forever in Washington" one. I actually think Baldwin is more difficult to run against than either Casey or Stabenow; however, her state is also the reddest of the three.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a quick note WVA isn't AL we won KY a 20 pt R state and we can win WVA again the last poll has Manchin not down 60/40 but 5 down and I expect him to be down until Eday because Fetterman won PA 51/47 and that's the same PVI Obama won 2012 but Brown, Tester and Manchin won with split voting and it's 2 yrs til Eday

Doug Jones lost 60/40 and wasn't down by 5 pts because it's AL not WV, Manchin is in Byrd seat

Biden is leading Trump in FL and Stein is winning in NC we aren't finished yet in red states why because Trump insurrection is all on the news and it's called wave insurance red stayes

[GALeftist]

I would say Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey in terms of vulnerability.

[here2view]

Casey ahead of Stabenow/Baldwin is laughable.

[coloradocowboi]

I would say Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey in terms of vulnerability.

This I really don't get. Tammy Baldwin barely underperformed Obama. She outpaced Stabenow by like 8 points in 2018 in a much more difficult state, where the Dem gubernatorial candidate only won by like 2 or 3 points.

I would argue that it's more like Stabenow>>>>>>>>>>Baldwin/Casey

[Spectator]

I would say Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey in terms of vulnerability.

This I really don't get. Tammy Baldwin barely underperformed Obama. She outpaced Stabenow by like 8 points in 2018 in a much more difficult state, where the Dem gubernatorial candidate only won by like 2 or 3 points.

I would argue that it's more like Stabenow>>>>>>>>>>Baldwin/Casey

Stabenow didn't do that bad. She won by like 6.5% while Baldwin won by 11%.

[MT Treasurer]

I would say Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey in terms of vulnerability.

This I really don't get. Tammy Baldwin barely underperformed Obama. She outpaced Stabenow by like 8 points in 2018 in a much more difficult state, where the Dem gubernatorial candidate only won by like 2 or 3 points.

I would argue that it's more like Stabenow>>>>>>>>>>Baldwin/Casey

Stabenow didn't do that bad. She won by like 6.5% while Baldwin won by 11%.

It also cannot be overstated just how abysmal a candidate Leah Vukmir was, even by GOP standards.  Baldwin probably wins by a similar margin as Stabenow if she faces a serious candidate in WI.

[Xing]

I wouldn't agree with the order of Casey/Baldwin/Stabenow, since I'd say the vulnerability would be Baldwin=Stabenow>Casey, and I'm not sure Tester has a better chance than Brown, but not a terrible list, overall.

[Dani Rose]

Yeah, Stabenow is way more vulnerable than listed. I'd really, really like it if she could politely step aside in favor of Stevens or Slotkin.

[MT Treasurer]

I wouldn't agree with the order of Casey/Baldwin/Stabenow, since I'd say the vulnerability would be Baldwin=Stabenow>Casey, and I'm not sure Tester has a better chance than Brown, but not a terrible list, overall.

Have you forgotten that even their strongest potential challenger (New Jersey multi-millionaire Greg Gianforte) wasn’t born in Montana? Remember when Tester single-handedly sunk Rosendale with the genius "Maryland Matt" moniker? Who knows if MT will even make the list if "Jersey Greg" becomes the dominant theme of the campaign.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Bob Casey more vulnerable than Baldwin and Stabenow? Not sure if I agree with that.

[Xing]

I wouldn't agree with the order of Casey/Baldwin/Stabenow, since I'd say the vulnerability would be Baldwin=Stabenow>Casey, and I'm not sure Tester has a better chance than Brown, but not a terrible list, overall.

Have you forgotten that even their strongest potential challenger (New Jersey multi-millionaire Greg Gianforte) wasn’t born in Montana? Remember when Tester single-handedly sunk Rosendale with the genius "Maryland Matt" moniker? Who knows if MT will even make the list if "Jersey Greg" becomes the dominant theme of the campaign.

Depends on whether or not Tester can do a better job than Bullock did of making "California Steve" a thing.

[Vosem]

I would say Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey in terms of vulnerability.

This is conventional wisdom and I think it's correct. Stabenow is also on retirement watch, though, and I think it's an open secret that Slotkin will run for her seat if she step aside, while the other two are almost certainly staying.

[S019]

Casey is underrated and Stabenow is overrated, I agree with the first 5, but I’d have the last three as Baldwin>Stabenow>Casey.

[windjammer]

Among the last three Trump senate democrats, I think Tester is the most likely to survive. My predictions right now would be republicans picking WV and OH, while Tester surviving.

[President Johnson]

I'd switch Brown and Tester, and Baldwin and Casey.

[Del Tachi]

You heard it here first folks:  they all win (except maybe Tester and Rosen, who I'm the most unsure about.)  Ticket-splitting is back, baby!

[OSR stands with Israel]

You heard it here first folks:  they all win (except maybe Tester and Rosen, who I'm the most unsure about.)  Ticket-splitting is back, baby!

Manchin wont win