NH-UNH: Sununu narrowly leads Hassan, Ayotte trails, Bolduc/Lewandowski behind by double digits

[MT Treasurer]

In all fairness, while this is a discouraging poll for the GOP, it should be pointed out that UNH has consistently understated Sununu's election day strength in all of his statewide campaigns so far:

Their final poll in 2016: Van Ostern +11 (actual result: Sununu +2)
Their final poll in 2018: TIE (actual margin: Sununu +7)
Their final poll in 2020: Sununu +24 (actual margin: Sununu +32)

Their polls also show these inexplicable fluctuations, so don’t be surprised if their next survey has him ahead by 9 and the poll after that shows Hassan leading by 5, etc.

A healthy dose of skepticism and/or concern about Republican chances is definitely warranted here, but I also think Sununu has a path to narrowly overcoming the state's partisanship even in a federal race. This will require a lot of theatrics and the seat will probably only be a one-term rental, but my suspicion is that his internal numbers currently paint a slightly less bleak picture for him than this survey does (and there were rumors a month or two ago about his lead being wider in Republican internals, although those may or may not be accurate). If he steers clear of emphasizing/being baited into emphasizing hot-button social issues, doesn’t cultivate the kind of national profile that makes it easy to paint him as out of step with the electorate and beholden to the national party (think of Ayotte and her outspoken opposition to the Iran nuclear deal), and refrains from needlessly alienating the Trump base without gaining any additional D crossover votes (which he wouldn’t), he can pull it off narrowly. It’s not easy for a Republican to de-emphasize partisan affiliation in a Senate race in a blue state, but if he melds his 'compassionate conservatism' shtick with some 'no-nonsense populism' that ties Hassan to the partisan gridlock/D.C. establishment, he probably still has a path unless the environment is relatively favorable to Democrats or the state really is completely gone for the GOP (both of which are not out of the question, although I wouldn’t bet on them either).

Fundamentals/trends of the state and partisanship of blue state voters both make this a tough race for the GOP, but I’ll stick with my Tossup/Tilt R rating for now, if only because I’m betting on Sununu having sharper political instincts than Hassan and Ayotte. We’ll see what happens, though. As windjammer said, the most promising R options haven’t even announced their candidacy yet.