NH-UNH: Sununu narrowly leads Hassan, Ayotte trails, Bolduc/Lewandowski behind by double digits

[VAR]

I can't tell if you are trying to disparage their polling or compliment it, anyway their final poll was Biden+8, Shaheen+11 so, decently accurate at least last year.

Their last 2020 poll was Biden+8, Shaheen+11. Not sure what the problem is.

UNH was indeed accurate last year, but it’s generally regarded as a meme pollster because their polls are prone to wild fluctuations and it was terrible in 2016 (Clinton +10, other polls had Clinton up by 5% or so) and 2018 (Tied, other polls showed a Sununu lead). That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if this poll is accurate because the margin of error is fairly low (2.4%). Just don’t take this poll too seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah I expected Sununu to have a stronger lead. On the other hand, this is likely a high point for Democrats in the national environment. By November 2022 the national environment is likely to shift to the right, maybe Sununu loses some personal popularity boost but makes up for it with the midterm environment shift. We'll need to see more polling for this race.

You understimate Biden WC appeal, he is the same D that ushered Obama coalition in 2008)12 and we won OH, NC and FL, those are wave insurance but plse don't underestimate Biden I'm 2022, with Jeff Jackson, Biden didn't win OH, NC and FL in 2020 but that was before the Insurrectionists and we are gonna have a boom Economy next yr not a Recession


Wave insurance 🌊🌊🌊


Again we didn't win OH, FL and NC in 2020, but that was before Trump pushed thru damage with Insurrectionists and we are gonna have a blue ribbon commission

[Xing]

Better than I would have expected for Hassan, but I still think Sununu would be slightly favored against her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's shouldn't underestimate Biden and Maggie Hassan is safe

[DaleCooper]

Frankly, I think these are pretty fantastic numbers for Hassan if they're accurate. As long as she or her party doesn't do anything unforgivably stupid then she should be able to hold on so long as the 2022 environment isn't extremely antagonistic.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

yeah ayotte is weak, never got why people thought she could make a 2020 comeback by beating shaheen

[Frenchrepublican]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We're NOT having this discourse in February 2021.

this is atlas, ofc we are

[KaiserDave]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

Usually, popular governors (seen as competent, almost apolitical managers) running for Senate seats (Lingle, Bredesen, Bullock, Strickland, or as far back as Weld and Sullivan) start with substantial leads which are reduced over time as partisanship takes hold and their opponent nationalizes the race.

If Sununu starts with a lead that is really within the Margin of Error, it indicates that his massive approvals and Hassan's mediocre approvals do not translate to a win, or at this point even a lead of much value.

Given New Hampshire's strong D lean (which is highly underrated, especially after Biden won it by 7 and there's no sign of it moving back to the right), history tells us Sununu's numbers will ebb as time goes on, and this poll tells us he has no room to ebb. This race is not over by any means, but these numbers aren't a good thing for Sununu.

As for the rest of the post, it's a combination of reading waaayyy too much into crosstabs and mathematical gobbledygook.

[DaleCooper]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

She's an incumbent with a mixed approval rating and is still only down within the margin of error against the incumbent governor who is about as popular as a Republican can be in the state, and the state is not favorable to Republicans at the federal level lately. Sununu won with over 65% of the vote just four months ago, so it's pretty jarring to see him barely ahead and below 50% in this poll. If there was ever a "quality candidate" to take down Hassan then it'd be him.

[Kuumo]

NH-SEN 2022 according to Sununu stans:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why French Republican think that Maggie Hassan will lose, we aren't even in the Biden boom Economy yet, which will happen eventually like he said on TV, in 2022 not 2021 and the Election is next yr anyways

[Chips]

Better than I would have expected for Hassan, but I still think Sununu would be slightly favored against her.

[Frenchrepublican]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

Usually, popular governors (seen as competent, almost apolitical managers) running for Senate seats (Lingle, Bredesen, Bullock, Strickland, or as far back as Weld and Sullivan) start with substantial leads which are reduced over time as partisanship takes hold and their opponent nationalizes the race.

If Sununu starts with a lead that is really within the Margin of Error, it indicates that his massive approvals and Hassan's mediocre approvals do not translate to a win, or at this point even a lead of much value.

Given New Hampshire's strong D lean (which is highly underrated, especially after Biden won it by 7 and there's no sign of it moving back to the right), history tells us Sununu's numbers will ebb as time goes on, and this poll tells us he has no room to ebb. This race is not over by any means, but these numbers aren't a good thing for Sununu.

As for the rest of the post, it's a combination of reading waaayyy too much into crosstabs and mathematical gobbledygook.

Strickland was a popular governor ? I'm learning something here.

As for Bredesen and Bullock, they both overperformed massively their state lean, so I'm not sure what your point is, if Sununu overperforms his state lean by 7 to 16 points like Bullock and Bredesen did he will win.

And as for the Lingle comparison, you can't really compare a deep blue state like HI and a blue leaning state like New Hampshire.

As for Sununu, if he runs for the Senate, and if he wins, it won't be by landslide margin and it was never going to be landslide win so I'm not sure why you are surprised he is not doing better, NH would be tossup with him in the race, not Lean R, not Likely R and if some people on this forum apparently expected something else they have clearly not learned any lesson from the last few election cycles (polarization is real).

Sununu is not going to win by double digits in a federal race just because he did last year in a non federal race, now it doesn't mean he is going to lose either.

I think that if runs and if 2022 ends up being like I'm expecting, Sununu is going to win by something like a 51/47 margin, so these numbers don't surprise me the least.

And concerning the crosstabs, well you are free to ignore them but if Sununu is getting +1/10 of the Biden electorate he is going to win. Obviously it is possible that his crossover appeal will diminish but at the moment the data are what they are.

[MargieCat]

If Sununu thinks he's getting a cakewalk, he's sorely mistaking.

I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to keep his safe gubernatorial seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have better candidates this time around, the Rs haven't face this wave of challengers since 2006 Sifton, Ryan, Jackson are better than Bollier, Galloway and HEGAR just like the above pollsters said, the Rs aren't getting a cakewalk, it's not 2010 anymore

This is due to Rs being older and WC and D's are in their mid 50s like in 2006

[Left Wing]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

Usually, popular governors (seen as competent, almost apolitical managers) running for Senate seats (Lingle, Bredesen, Bullock, Strickland, or as far back as Weld and Sullivan) start with substantial leads which are reduced over time as partisanship takes hold and their opponent nationalizes the race.

If Sununu starts with a lead that is really within the Margin of Error, it indicates that his massive approvals and Hassan's mediocre approvals do not translate to a win, or at this point even a lead of much value.

Given New Hampshire's strong D lean (which is highly underrated, especially after Biden won it by 7 and there's no sign of it moving back to the right), history tells us Sununu's numbers will ebb as time goes on, and this poll tells us he has no room to ebb. This race is not over by any means, but these numbers aren't a good thing for Sununu.

As for the rest of the post, it's a combination of reading waaayyy too much into crosstabs and mathematical gobbledygook.

Strickland was a popular governor ? I'm learning something here.

As for Bredesen and Bullock, they both overperformed massively their state lean, so I'm not sure what your point is, if Sununu overperforms his state lean by 7 to 16 points like Bullock and Bredesen did he will win.

And as for the Lingle comparison, you can't really compare a deep blue state like HI and a blue leaning state like New Hampshire.

As for Sununu, if he runs for the Senate, and if he wins, it won't be by landslide margin and it was never going to be landslide win so I'm not sure why you are surprised he is not doing better, NH would be tossup with him in the race, not Lean R, not Likely R and if some people on this forum apparently expected something else they have clearly not learned any lesson from the last few election cycles (polarization is real).

Sununu is not going to win by double digits in a federal race just because he did last year in a non federal race, now it doesn't mean he is going to lose either.

I think that if runs and if 2022 ends up being like I'm expecting, Sununu is going to win by something like a 51/47 margin, so these numbers don't surprise me the least.

And concerning the crosstabs, well you are free to ignore them but if Sununu is getting +1/10 of the Biden electorate he is going to win. Obviously it is possible that his crossover appeal will diminish but at the moment the data are what they are.

Guess you are learning something here, Ted Strickland had +18 favorabilities when he first entered the senate race in 2016.

As for the rest, you didn't seem to respond to a single one of his actual points. The point was not that that Sununu will perform similarly to Bullock or Bredesen, the point was that these governors who run for senate usually start with wide leads in polls that get whittled down by the end. The point was that if Sununu is not overperforming at Bullock or Bredesen levels before the campaign has even started, then he is in major trouble once partisanship kicks in. Again, this is only one poll, but it's silly to think these numbers are good for Sununu.

[KaiserDave]

The reactions to this poll is really something you need to see it to believe it.

How do these numbers are bad for Sununu ? We are talking about New Hampshire, a Biden+7 state, not about Alabama, if Sununu runs he is probably going to begin the race as a slight favourite, but he is not going to defeat Hassan by double digits. What did you expect ?

If these numbers are bad for someone it is for Hassan, I mean she is done by 2 while Biden is still in his honeymoon period, and even against Ayotte her numbers are not wonderful to say the least.

By the way it seems that nobody took some time to look at the crosstabs, Sununu is getting 12% of Biden voters while he loses only 2% of Trump voters, and as for 2020 third parties voters they are voting 13% Hassan and 77% Sununu. Last year Biden won the state by a 52.5/45 margin, do the maths, if you assume that the midterm electorate won't be more dem friendly than in 2020, Sununu would win by a 52.5/47.5 margin, not bad to be honest.

Usually, popular governors (seen as competent, almost apolitical managers) running for Senate seats (Lingle, Bredesen, Bullock, Strickland, or as far back as Weld and Sullivan) start with substantial leads which are reduced over time as partisanship takes hold and their opponent nationalizes the race.

If Sununu starts with a lead that is really within the Margin of Error, it indicates that his massive approvals and Hassan's mediocre approvals do not translate to a win, or at this point even a lead of much value.

Given New Hampshire's strong D lean (which is highly underrated, especially after Biden won it by 7 and there's no sign of it moving back to the right), history tells us Sununu's numbers will ebb as time goes on, and this poll tells us he has no room to ebb. This race is not over by any means, but these numbers aren't a good thing for Sununu.

As for the rest of the post, it's a combination of reading waaayyy too much into crosstabs and mathematical gobbledygook.

Strickland was a popular governor ? I'm learning something here.

As for Bredesen and Bullock, they both overperformed massively their state lean, so I'm not sure what your point is, if Sununu overperforms his state lean by 7 to 16 points like Bullock and Bredesen did he will win.

And as for the Lingle comparison, you can't really compare a deep blue state like HI and a blue leaning state like New Hampshire.

As for Sununu, if he runs for the Senate, and if he wins, it won't be by landslide margin and it was never going to be landslide win so I'm not sure why you are surprised he is not doing better, NH would be tossup with him in the race, not Lean R, not Likely R and if some people on this forum apparently expected something else they have clearly not learned any lesson from the last few election cycles (polarization is real).

Sununu is not going to win by double digits in a federal race just because he did last year in a non federal race, now it doesn't mean he is going to lose either.

I think that if runs and if 2022 ends up being like I'm expecting, Sununu is going to win by something like a 51/47 margin, so these numbers don't surprise me the least.

And concerning the crosstabs, well you are free to ignore them but if Sununu is getting +1/10 of the Biden electorate he is going to win. Obviously it is possible that his crossover appeal will diminish but at the moment the data are what they are.

I see you ignored just about....everything I said, and responded to someone unknown third person.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not play games here, we know why the Rs think they can net gain seats in a Recession that started under Trump and we can have a boom Economy by next yr, the Rs are opposed to Statehood and if D's develop any type of wave, the Filibuster is gone in 2023 that's why French Republican who was wrong about GA Perdue and Loeffler winning is so adamant that D's are gonna lose seats

The Election is next yr not in 2021 Recession, a wave will develop by then

That's why Ryan and especially Jeff Jackson aren't DOA

[Roronoa D. Law]

I admit I was expecting Sunnunu to lead by a lot more than this.

[SWE]

As long as she or her party doesn't do anything unforgivably stupid

R+1

[ElectionsGuy]

Did people expect Sununu to be leading in a landslide? This was always going to be a hard-fought-over seat even with him, and considering the pollster I'm surprised he's even leading actually.

[windjammer]

We don't even know who is even going to run lol

[Devils30]

Sununu's biggest risk is a MAGA challenger. He's obviously the type of R who wins in NH but someone to join the Collins, Romney wing doesn't make people excited.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sununu's biggest risk is a MAGA challenger. He's obviously the type of R who wins in NH but someone to join the Collins, Romney wing doesn't make people excited.

Pretty sure he's the only New England republican governor to endorse Trump? And did Trump ever campaign for him at all, or vice versa?