WI-PPP: Johnson with a 35/48 approval rating
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  WI-PPP: Johnson with a 35/48 approval rating
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Author Topic: WI-PPP: Johnson with a 35/48 approval rating  (Read 1557 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: February 25, 2021, 09:56:21 AM »

The Economy can change by next yr, hopefully, we get out of this Recession but yeah it's NC polling was way off

If the Economy grows at 3.5 percent D's will expand their Majority, so far it's a neutral cycle until then

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #26 on: February 25, 2021, 10:10:54 AM »

Way too early for any 2022 predictions. The dude might very well be saved by national environment despite the fact he deserves to be voted out.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #27 on: February 25, 2021, 10:16:09 AM »

They were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. But the Trump years have not been kind to them.

I’m pretty sure their Clinton +7/Feingold +5 (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1, 2016), Clinton +12/Feingold +6 (Oct. 18-19, 2016), and Walker +1 (Oct. 28-30, 2014) WI polls don’t fall into the Trump years, and they underestimated Republicans in other states as well in 2014, often by substantial margins. When you consistently overestimate D strength, it’s no surprise that you’ll end up being the 'gold standard' in the one election in which Democrats actually do outperform expectations across the board (2012). That said, they were pretty good in 2010 and actually overstated R strength a little in the Upper Midwest that year, it’s just that their performance since 2013 (which is also when they started aligning themselves more and more with D clients, if I’m not mistaken) has been less than stellar.

People would do well to pay less attention to polling in general, regardless of the state/topline. It’s tempting not to (I admittedly got a little excited about those Evers numbers as well), but at the end of the day, betting on fundamentals is probably the better choice. My prediction is that this seat will end up being 1-2%-points more R than the PA race again (in line with recent Senate + House Popular vote results in those two states).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2021, 11:22:13 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2021, 11:26:19 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Way too early for any 2022 predictions. The dude might very well be saved by national environment despite the fact he deserves to be voted out.

Evers should be reelected but Rs saying that Evers is gonna lose and Johnson is gonna be Reelected is so hypocritical and both Johnson and Evers are the same age, and both are old, and so are Trump and Biden and Rs say Trump is young enough and Biden is too old and Biden is only 4 years older than Trump


MT Treasurer is comparing the 2016 Environment and Biden won WI and Clinton lost the state that's the difference in Johnson losing this time
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #29 on: February 25, 2021, 11:28:32 AM »

They were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. But the Trump years have not been kind to them.

I’m pretty sure their Clinton +7/Feingold +5 (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1, 2016), Clinton +12/Feingold +6 (Oct. 18-19, 2016), and Walker +1 (Oct. 28-30, 2014) WI polls don’t fall into the Trump years, and they underestimated Republicans in other states as well in 2014, often by substantial margins. When you consistently overestimate D strength, it’s no surprise that you’ll end up being the 'gold standard' in the one election in which Democrats actually do outperform expectations across the board (2012). That said, they were pretty good in 2010 and actually overstated R strength a little in the Upper Midwest that year, it’s just that their performance since 2013 (which is also when they started aligning themselves more and more with D clients, if I’m not mistaken) has been less than stellar.

People would do well to pay less attention to polling in general, regardless of the state/topline. It’s tempting not to (I admittedly got a little excited about those Evers numbers as well), but at the end of the day, betting on fundamentals is probably the better choice. My prediction is that this seat will end up being 1-2%-points more R than the PA race again (in line with recent Senate + House Popular vote results in those two states).

Perhaps PPP's most egregious and dubious failure in 2014 was consistently finding a competitive Senate race in Louisiana. Their November 1 poll that year had it within a single percentage point.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #30 on: February 25, 2021, 01:53:33 PM »

Perhaps PPP's most egregious and dubious failure in 2014 was consistently finding a competitive Senate race in Louisiana. Their November 1 poll that year had it within a single percentage point.

At least you had some uncertainty there due to the runoff scenario/potential for skewed turnout patterns, but yeah, it was still pretty bad given that it was the same sample. I think the most egregious polling error that year was KS-SEN (PPP had Orman ahead the day before the election). I didn’t follow those campaigns that much back in 2014, but I never bought the race being this close.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #31 on: February 25, 2021, 01:59:55 PM »

They were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. But the Trump years have not been kind to them.

I’m pretty sure their Clinton +7/Feingold +5 (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1, 2016), Clinton +12/Feingold +6 (Oct. 18-19, 2016), and Walker +1 (Oct. 28-30, 2014) WI polls don’t fall into the Trump years, and they underestimated Republicans in other states as well in 2014, often by substantial margins. When you consistently overestimate D strength, it’s no surprise that you’ll end up being the 'gold standard' in the one election in which Democrats actually do outperform expectations across the board (2012). That said, they were pretty good in 2010 and actually overstated R strength a little in the Upper Midwest that year, it’s just that their performance since 2013 (which is also when they started aligning themselves more and more with D clients, if I’m not mistaken) has been less than stellar.

People would do well to pay less attention to polling in general, regardless of the state/topline. It’s tempting not to (I admittedly got a little excited about those Evers numbers as well), but at the end of the day, betting on fundamentals is probably the better choice. My prediction is that this seat will end up being 1-2%-points more R than the PA race again (in line with recent Senate + House Popular vote results in those two states).

Semantically, I included 2016 as a Trump year. But yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said.
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Chips
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« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2021, 03:27:04 PM »

This could be more competitive than some of you think.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2021, 03:33:53 PM »

Of course it's gonna be competetive, it's WI not Iowa
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2021, 04:29:27 PM »

PPP is total garbage. Flush that crap
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2021, 06:58:01 PM »

Of course it's gonna be competetive, it's WI not Iowa

I'd say some here are overrating Johnson's chances just a little bit.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2021, 11:20:13 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2021, 11:23:34 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Of course it's gonna be competetive, it's WI not Iowa

I'd say some here are overrating Johnson's chances just a little bit.

Go to pbower2A approvals and he will tell you Ron Johnson is headed for defeat after silly remark about Trump didn't incite the Insurrectionists


Sorry the Rs haven't cracked the 278 Blue wall since 2016/ when Johnson only won by 300K votes over Russ Feingold
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Devils30
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« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2021, 10:06:38 PM »

Johnson lost 5 driftless region counties that Trump won both times. I don't think he can count on running much ahead of Trump in WOW counties based on his erratic behavior the past few months.
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