Rate MI - Trump v. Harris 2024
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Poll
Question: Rate MI - Trump v. Harris 2024
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R/Toss Up		  
#5
Tilt D/Toss Up		  
#6
Lean D		  
#7
Likely D		  
#8
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Rate MI - Trump v. Harris 2024  (Read 1008 times)
SN2903
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« on: February 24, 2021, 12:45:12 PM »
Tilt R bordering on lean R in my opinion. Harris would do horrible in Macomb County - would lose by around 15%. Oakland would be more of a 10% margin than 14 and she would lose ground in the rest of the state. Trump would win by 1-2%.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2021, 12:45:36 PM »
Everyone vote Safe D to trigger OP.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2021, 12:47:20 PM »
Quote from: VAR on February 24, 2021, 12:45:36 PM
Everyone vote Safe D to trigger OP.
I'm not a liberal. I don't get triggered.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2021, 12:48:54 PM »
Yes you can
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2021, 12:51:27 PM »
Pure tossup, yeah Harris would be a bad fit for Macomb/Saginaw... but at the same time democrats have a high floor in this state and Trump has some problems too, notably in west Michigan.
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If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2021, 01:00:06 PM »
Tilt D

Quote from: SN2903 on February 24, 2021, 12:47:20 PM
Quote from: VAR on February 24, 2021, 12:45:36 PM
Everyone vote Safe D to trigger OP.
I'm not a liberal. I don't get triggered.

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Da2017
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2021, 05:47:58 PM »
Tilt D tossup
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2021, 06:10:56 PM »
Tilt D for now. An underrated problem Trump will face against a younger candidate is his age and cognitive abilities. Biden will have this problem too if he faces someone under the age of 65 in 2024.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2021, 06:53:10 PM »
Quote from: VAR on February 24, 2021, 12:45:36 PM
Everyone vote Safe D to trigger OP.

Done.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2021, 07:08:34 PM »
State level forecasts before Biden has passed any signature legislation seems like it would be either (1) low signal-to-noise junk or (2) wishcasting.

The answer is... *gasp* it depends on how Biden's term goes.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2021, 10:20:57 PM »
Tilt/Lean R.
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
FranciscoM97
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2021, 01:00:10 AM »
Harris is a bad fit for the midwest… but MI is bluer than WI and PA, so it would be Tilt D at best.
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TheReckoning
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2021, 01:21:06 AM »
People are way, way overestimating Trump’s chances in my opinion.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2021, 12:47:12 PM »
Quote from: TheReckoning on February 25, 2021, 01:21:06 AM
People are way, way overestimating Trump’s chances in my opinion.

We don't fully know how badly the January 6 insurrection will shape the 2024 election. He has a better hold of his supporters in 2021 than Nixon did in 1961...  Trump would need to gain less than a 1% of the total vote in an even swing from 2020 to oust Biden, but in view of the Great Disgrace I see that unlikely. 
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beesley
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2021, 01:54:26 PM »
Tilt D, closer to Lean than Tossup.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2021, 02:39:13 PM »
Lean D.
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redjohn
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2021, 06:27:24 PM »
Lean R? The state that swung from Trump barely winning in 2016 to Biden winning by 3 points?

It's a tossup/tilt D, because Democrats just won the state and there is no reason currently to believe Trump would do any better in 2024.
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Chips
Those Chips
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« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2021, 12:28:26 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on February 24, 2021, 12:51:27 PM
Pure tossup, yeah Harris would be a bad fit for Macomb/Saginaw... but at the same time democrats have a high floor in this state and Trump has some problems too, notably in west Michigan.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2021, 01:29:57 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Tossup/Tilt R.
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2021, 10:21:05 AM »
Pure tossup, it depends on how Harris is perceived, the national environment, and how Biden does as President by 2024. I mentioned the factors I did because everyone has an opinion about Trump already and he has a low ceiling but Dems have room to fall from 2020-21.
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