How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election? (user search)
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  How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election?  (Read 1391 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: June 10, 2021, 05:13:38 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker

Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isn’t the strongest candidate for this county. I’d say Walker ekes out a win.

Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis

Lackawanna County voted for Clinton by 3% and Biden by 8%; how would Walker win there? This seems to assume that the Biden/Harris administration is highly unpopular.

Anyway, I think Summit County goes Democratic by 10-11 percent, with Harris improving slightly on Biden's performance: 55-44%.

How about this one? Elliott County, Kentucky, in whatever year you want - Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) pitted against Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD).
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2021, 03:13:36 PM »

Cameron County, TX - Kamala Harris vs. Marco Rubio

2020 was a terrible year for Democrats in South Texas, but I think if Rubio were own the ballot he may overperform Trump's 2020 performance in South Texas and Southeast Florida. Also, Cameron County didn't actually swing Republican as much as other counties in the region, so I think Rubio would lose by around 6 or 7 points - maybe 53-46%, or something like that.

How about Denton County, Texas - Beto O'Rourke (D) in a matchup against Nikki Haley (R)?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2021, 11:13:56 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 01:20:51 PM by CentristRepublican »

I think Biden overperforms on 2020 but underperforms Clinton; maybe a 15-point margin?
Also, how do you figure Clay County votes for Sanders? It gave Donald Trump 80% of the vote in 2020. If he's lucky Sanders will win 30%.
How does Ashtabula County, Ohio, vote in a race between Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2021, 05:02:20 PM »

I think Biden overperforms on 2020 but underperforms Clinton; maybe a 15-point margin?
Also, how do you figure Clay County votes for Sanders? It gave Donald Trump 80% of the vote in 2020. If he's lucky Sanders will win 30%.
How does Ashtabula County, Ohio, vote in a race between Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown?
Marco Rubio I don’t think gets the white working class turnout that Donald Trump got, so I think that a left wing populist like Bernie Sanders would have a shot in Clay County.

-SKIP-

Perhaps that would improve his performance, but an 80% GOP county doesn't just flip Democratic. The only scenario where that might, might just happen is if Joe Manchin is the Democratic nominee and faces a Republican like Richard Burr who doesn't win Trump's endorsement, and the national environment is great for Democrats. Under those circumstances, the county might vote blue. Other than that, no chance. Maybe someone like Sanders boosts turnout while Rubio hurts turnout among conservatives, but that still wouldn't stop Rubio from garnering at least two-thirds of the vote in the county. And I think Sanders may even underperform Biden, what with his Green New Deal, in Clay County, in the centre of the heart of coal country. Perhaps this could happen in a county like Marion, that voted to the left of the state as a whole. Because Sanders winning Clay County (which supported Trump by 60% while WV voted for him by 39%) heavily implies that the state of West Virginia votes Democratic again - and for Bernie Sanders, the champion of the Green New Deal! - which is certainly not happening.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2022, 04:14:27 PM »


Trump, by a margin of less than 0.5%.


Clay County, Missouri in a Ted Cruz v. Joe Biden match-up in 2024.

Let's say Cruz+6.

Elliott County - Marco Rubio vs. Roy Cooper
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