AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip
Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker
Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isn’t the strongest candidate for this county. I’d say Walker ekes out a win.
Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis
Lackawanna County voted for Clinton by 3% and Biden by 8%; how would Walker win there? This seems to assume that the Biden/Harris administration is highly unpopular.
Anyway, I think Summit County goes Democratic by 10-11 percent, with Harris improving slightly on Biden's performance: 55-44%.
How about this one? Elliott County, Kentucky, in whatever year you want - Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) pitted against Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD).
Noem would win, but Beshear would overperform by a decent amount.
How about Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley: Morris County, NJ.
Trump only lost it by 4 points, and Haley is a much better fit. And unlike the Atlanta metro, there's no significant demographic change. I say she flips it back by 2-3.
Biden vs. DeSantis in Seminole, FL.
