How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election?
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  How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election?
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Author Topic: How will the previous county vote in a future hypothetical election?  (Read 636 times)
Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« on: February 23, 2021, 11:43:31 PM »

I'd rather focus more on 2024 for this one, but feel free to do whatever future election year you want (and be sure to name the candidates)!

I'll start:

Harris County, Texas in a Ron DeSantis vs Kamala Harris 2024 matchup
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2021, 01:44:16 AM »

Harris wins within 2-3 points of Biden's 2020 percentage of the vote. Safe D margin of victory against DeSantis.

Cuyahoga County, 2024 Kamala Harris vs Marco Rubio.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2021, 09:29:11 PM »

Harris wins within 2-3 points of Biden's 2020 percentage of the vote. Safe D margin of victory against DeSantis.

Cuyahoga County, 2024 Kamala Harris vs Marco Rubio.


Harris slips a bit from Bidenís performance and thereís probably some snapback in the suburban collar of the county. 30 point win, Iíd say.

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis: Atlantic County, NJ.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2021, 06:24:09 PM »

Harris wins within 2-3 points of Biden's 2020 percentage of the vote. Safe D margin of victory against DeSantis.

Cuyahoga County, 2024 Kamala Harris vs Marco Rubio.


Harris slips a bit from Bidenís performance and thereís probably some snapback in the suburban collar of the county. 30 point win, Iíd say.

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis: Atlantic County, NJ.
Harris 52% and DeSantis 48%

Vigo County Indiana, Conor Lamb vs Mike Garcia (the representative) 2024
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2021, 09:51:56 PM »

Lamb improves very slightly, though it remains safely Republican. Garcia wins 56-43.

Spokane county, WA, Gretchen Whitmer vs. Tom Cotton, 2028.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2021, 10:49:55 AM »

Whitmar 49-47% with the rest going to a libertarian/conservative party. Cotton seems like a bad fit.

Luzerne County, PA, Biden vs Nikki Haley 2024
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2021, 04:13:02 PM »

Whitmar 49-47% with the rest going to a libertarian/conservative party. Cotton seems like a bad fit.

Luzerne County, PA, Biden vs Nikki Haley 2024

Haley is a bad fit and candidate, but its still a GOP county now. Haley +10.

Pinellas County, FL

Ron Desantis Vs Kamala Harris.
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Tiger08
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2021, 05:48:52 PM »

Whitmar 49-47% with the rest going to a libertarian/conservative party. Cotton seems like a bad fit.

Luzerne County, PA, Biden vs Nikki Haley 2024

Haley is a bad fit and candidate, but its still a GOP county now. Haley +10.

Pinellas County, FL

Ron Desantis Vs Kamala Harris.


DeSantis 51-48. Home state bump, and I think DeSantis is a good fit and Harris is a bad fit

Cobb County, GA 2024, Harris vs DeSantis
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skbl17
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2021, 10:11:24 AM »

Whitmar 49-47% with the rest going to a libertarian/conservative party. Cotton seems like a bad fit.

Luzerne County, PA, Biden vs Nikki Haley 2024

Haley is a bad fit and candidate, but its still a GOP county now. Haley +10.

Pinellas County, FL

Ron Desantis Vs Kamala Harris.


DeSantis 51-48. Home state bump, and I think DeSantis is a good fit and Harris is a bad fit

Cobb County, GA 2024, Harris vs DeSantis

Harris 58-41. Cobb's only slightly less Dem than Gwinnett, and there's nothing to indicate the Atlanta leftward freight train will reverse in any meaningful way (slow down, maybe, but not reverse). DeSantis could keep her under 60%, but at any rate I don't see Harris doing worse than Ossoff's 2021 runoff performance.

Tarrant County, TX, 2024 - Biden vs. DeSantis.
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America Needs Jesus Christ
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2021, 08:05:49 PM »

DeSantis 50-48.

Miami-Dade, Florida in 2024: Rubio vs. Ocasio-Cortez
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Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2021, 09:22:37 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2021, 04:18:43 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker

Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isnít the strongest candidate for this county. Iíd say Walker ekes out a win.

Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2021, 05:13:38 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker

Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isnít the strongest candidate for this county. Iíd say Walker ekes out a win.

Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis

Lackawanna County voted for Clinton by 3% and Biden by 8%; how would Walker win there? This seems to assume that the Biden/Harris administration is highly unpopular.

Anyway, I think Summit County goes Democratic by 10-11 percent, with Harris improving slightly on Biden's performance: 55-44%.

How about this one? Elliott County, Kentucky, in whatever year you want - Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) pitted against Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2021, 06:32:13 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker

Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isnít the strongest candidate for this county. Iíd say Walker ekes out a win.

Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis

Lackawanna County voted for Clinton by 3% and Biden by 8%; how would Walker win there? This seems to assume that the Biden/Harris administration is highly unpopular.

Anyway, I think Summit County goes Democratic by 10-11 percent, with Harris improving slightly on Biden's performance: 55-44%.

How about this one? Elliott County, Kentucky, in whatever year you want - Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) pitted against Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD).

Noem would win, but Beshear would overperform by a decent amount.

How about Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley: Morris County, NJ.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2021, 06:37:43 PM »

AOC+5 or so, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was probably close to rock bottom, the county has too many white liberals and liberals to flip

Lackawanna County, PA in 2028: Kamala Harris v Scott Walker

Harris would do terribly here, but Walker isnít the strongest candidate for this county. Iíd say Walker ekes out a win.

Summit County, OH: Harris vs. DeSantis

Lackawanna County voted for Clinton by 3% and Biden by 8%; how would Walker win there? This seems to assume that the Biden/Harris administration is highly unpopular.

Anyway, I think Summit County goes Democratic by 10-11 percent, with Harris improving slightly on Biden's performance: 55-44%.

How about this one? Elliott County, Kentucky, in whatever year you want - Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) pitted against Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD).

Noem would win, but Beshear would overperform by a decent amount.

How about Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley: Morris County, NJ.

Trump only lost it by 4 points, and Haley is a much better fit. And unlike the Atlanta metro, there's no significant demographic change. I say she flips it back by 2-3.

Biden vs. DeSantis in Seminole, FL.
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2021, 10:25:33 AM »

DeSantis's home state advantage is offset by the Democratic trend, so Biden +3.

Waukesha county, WI, Kamala Harris vs. Tucker Carlson, 2028.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2021, 12:06:36 PM »

DeSantis's home state advantage is offset by the Democratic trend, so Biden +3.

Waukesha county, WI, Kamala Harris vs. Tucker Carlson, 2028.

Carlson by around 15 points or so.

Cameron County, TX - Kamala Harris vs. Marco Rubio
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2021, 03:13:36 PM »

Cameron County, TX - Kamala Harris vs. Marco Rubio

2020 was a terrible year for Democrats in South Texas, but I think if Rubio were own the ballot he may overperform Trump's 2020 performance in South Texas and Southeast Florida. Also, Cameron County didn't actually swing Republican as much as other counties in the region, so I think Rubio would lose by around 6 or 7 points - maybe 53-46%, or something like that.

How about Denton County, Texas - Beto O'Rourke (D) in a matchup against Nikki Haley (R)?
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Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2021, 06:20:44 PM »

Likely similar to 2020. Beto's home field advantage is countered by the never-trumper suburbanites who would vote for Haley.

What about Clay County, WV in a Bernie vs Rubio situation?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2021, 06:23:16 PM »

Likely similar to 2020. Beto's home field advantage is countered by the never-trumper suburbanites who would vote for Haley.

What about Clay County, WV in a Bernie vs Rubio situation?
Probably Bernie Sanders by a single digit margin of victory.

Starr County, Texas, Donald Trump vs Joe Biden 2024?
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2021, 11:13:56 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 01:20:51 PM by CentristRepublican »

I think Biden overperforms on 2020 but underperforms Clinton; maybe a 15-point margin?
Also, how do you figure Clay County votes for Sanders? It gave Donald Trump 80% of the vote in 2020. If he's lucky Sanders will win 30%.
How does Ashtabula County, Ohio, vote in a race between Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2021, 04:35:00 PM »

I think Biden overperforms on 2020 but underperforms Clinton; maybe a 15-point margin?
Also, how do you figure Clay County votes for Sanders? It gave Donald Trump 80% of the vote in 2020. If he's lucky Sanders will win 30%.
How does Ashtabula County, Ohio, vote in a race between Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown?
Marco Rubio I donít think gets the white working class turnout that Donald Trump got, so I think that a left wing populist like Bernie Sanders would have a shot in Clay County.

-SKIP-
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2021, 05:02:20 PM »

I think Biden overperforms on 2020 but underperforms Clinton; maybe a 15-point margin?
Also, how do you figure Clay County votes for Sanders? It gave Donald Trump 80% of the vote in 2020. If he's lucky Sanders will win 30%.
How does Ashtabula County, Ohio, vote in a race between Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown?
Marco Rubio I donít think gets the white working class turnout that Donald Trump got, so I think that a left wing populist like Bernie Sanders would have a shot in Clay County.

-SKIP-

Perhaps that would improve his performance, but an 80% GOP county doesn't just flip Democratic. The only scenario where that might, might just happen is if Joe Manchin is the Democratic nominee and faces a Republican like Richard Burr who doesn't win Trump's endorsement, and the national environment is great for Democrats. Under those circumstances, the county might vote blue. Other than that, no chance. Maybe someone like Sanders boosts turnout while Rubio hurts turnout among conservatives, but that still wouldn't stop Rubio from garnering at least two-thirds of the vote in the county. And I think Sanders may even underperform Biden, what with his Green New Deal, in Clay County, in the centre of the heart of coal country. Perhaps this could happen in a county like Marion, that voted to the left of the state as a whole. Because Sanders winning Clay County (which supported Trump by 60% while WV voted for him by 39%) heavily implies that the state of West Virginia votes Democratic again - and for Bernie Sanders, the champion of the Green New Deal! - which is certainly not happening.
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