What happened in Fall River and New Bedford?

[MarkD]

The whole state of Massachusetts swung more Democratic from 2012 to 2016 to 2020.
In 2012, the state voted for Obama by 60.65 to 37.51, a margin of 23.14.
In 2016, the state voted for Clinton by 60.01 to 32.81, a margin of 27.20.
In 2020, the state voted for Biden by 65.60 to 32.14, a margin of 33.46.
So the total swing from 2012 to 2020 was 10.32. But of course the swing was not uniform across the state. Many municipalities swung more Democratic by margins much greater than 10.32, while a handful swung more Republican. I've determined the following ten towns had the greatest swing towards the Democrats from 2012 to 2020: Dover swung a whopping 53.36 points; Medfield - 45.73; Weston - 44.45; Wellesly - 41.99; Hopkinton - 40.96; Hingham - 39.31; Southborough - 38.70; Sudbury - 37.48; Carlisle - 35.68; Needham - 34.94.

But the two biggest swings towards Republicans were in predominantly Democratic mid-sized cities -- Fall River and New Bedford.
In 2012, Fall River voted Democratic by 73.55 to 24.84, a margin of 48.71.
In 2016, it voted 58.23 to 36.17, a margin of 22.06.
Then in 2020, it voted 55.22 to 42.92, a margin of 12.30. So the total swing was 36.41 points toward Trump.
In 2012, New Bedford voted Democratic by 75.65 to 22.62, a margin of 53.03.
In 2016, it voted 62.75 to 31.14, a margin of 31.61.
Then in 2020, it voted 60.98 to 37.17, a margin of 23.81. So the total swing was 29.22 points toward Trump. Another smaller town near New Bedford - Achushnet - swung 26.22 points toward Trump. Some other prominent cities swung towards Trump as well by even smaller margins: Lawrence swung 19.12 points toward Trump; Springfield swung 13.85 points to Trump; Lynn swung 5.76 points to Trump; and Lowell and Worcester swung by small margins of under 1.50.

But what was with Fall River and New Bedford? These two cities have both been quite heavily Democratic for a long time; so why would a few thousand voters within them be attracted to Donald Trump - even more attracted in 2020 than in 2016?

[H. Ross Peron]

Fall River and New Bedford are working class cities with large ethnically Portugese populations. While the white working class broadly shifted to the Dems in 2020, this was not the case in many areas such as Ohio and Appalachia where Biden lost further ground in ancestral D counties like Elliott. Seems like Pprtugese Americans behaved like ultra Orthodox Jews or Latinos in swinging towards the Republicans. Meanwhile the towns with the most massive swings towards Democrats are extremely wealthy suburbs of Boston reflecting growing strength among white educated voters.

[VPH]

So here's what I can say about the Portuguese-American population (which makes up a significant portion of the folks in these two towns, although Hispanics are pretty prominent in New Bedford too).

-In Fall River and New Bedford, the Portuguese are blue-collar and often lack college degrees. Demographically that lines up with national trends.
-The Lusophone population is VERY Catholic. Lots of socially conservative Democrats, represented well by Alain Silvia. The Democrats' leftward lurch doesn't play well with older Catholic ethnics.
-At least in MA and RI, Portuguese-Americans came a little later than Italians or Irish did (contrast that with California where they're more rooted). They started off more Democratic in recent times and while some swung GOP in 2016, there was greater room for Democrats to fall due to more old-school loyalty and less assimilation. We tend to be a little more insular than groups who have been here for a long time.

I remember telling a (will not name them) Portuguese-American state representative in 2018 that I was a little concerned about the Republicans making inroads after 2016's enormous swing. This person basically brushed it off and yet here we are with another huge swing in 2020...

[bagelman]

So here's what I can say about the Portuguese-American population (which makes up a significant portion of the folks in these two towns, although Hispanics are pretty prominent in New Bedford too).

-In Fall River and New Bedford, the Portuguese are blue-collar and often lack college degrees. Demographically that lines up with national trends.
-The Lusophone population is VERY Catholic. Lots of socially conservative Democrats, represented well by Alain Silvia. The Democrats' leftward lurch doesn't play well with older Catholic ethnics.
-At least in MA and RI, Portuguese-Americans came a little later than Italians or Irish did (contrast that with California where they're more rooted). They started off more Democratic in recent times and while some swung GOP in 2016, there was greater room for Democrats to fall due to more old-school loyalty and less assimilation. We tend to be a little more insular than groups who have been here for a long time.

I remember telling a (will not name them) Portuguese-American state representative in 2018 that I was a little concerned about the Republicans making inroads after 2016's enormous swing. This person basically brushed it off and yet here we are with another huge swing in 2020...

With MA totally uncompetitive, what's the worst thing for Democrats that could come of this?

[VPH]

So here's what I can say about the Portuguese-American population (which makes up a significant portion of the folks in these two towns, although Hispanics are pretty prominent in New Bedford too).

-In Fall River and New Bedford, the Portuguese are blue-collar and often lack college degrees. Demographically that lines up with national trends.
-The Lusophone population is VERY Catholic. Lots of socially conservative Democrats, represented well by Alain Silvia. The Democrats' leftward lurch doesn't play well with older Catholic ethnics.
-At least in MA and RI, Portuguese-Americans came a little later than Italians or Irish did (contrast that with California where they're more rooted). They started off more Democratic in recent times and while some swung GOP in 2016, there was greater room for Democrats to fall due to more old-school loyalty and less assimilation. We tend to be a little more insular than groups who have been here for a long time.

I remember telling a (will not name them) Portuguese-American state representative in 2018 that I was a little concerned about the Republicans making inroads after 2016's enormous swing. This person basically brushed it off and yet here we are with another huge swing in 2020...

With MA totally uncompetitive, what's the worst thing for Democrats that could come of this?

I mean it's something for Democrats from the area to keep in mind if they want to win local and state legislative races.

[GregTheGreat657]

Both places are pretty working class and Trump does better with working class ancestral Democrats than just about any Republican.

[Mechavada]

So here's what I can say about the Portuguese-American population (which makes up a significant portion of the folks in these two towns, although Hispanics are pretty prominent in New Bedford too).

-In Fall River and New Bedford, the Portuguese are blue-collar and often lack college degrees. Demographically that lines up with national trends.
-The Lusophone population is VERY Catholic. Lots of socially conservative Democrats, represented well by Alain Silvia. The Democrats' leftward lurch doesn't play well with older Catholic ethnics.
-At least in MA and RI, Portuguese-Americans came a little later than Italians or Irish did (contrast that with California where they're more rooted). They started off more Democratic in recent times and while some swung GOP in 2016, there was greater room for Democrats to fall due to more old-school loyalty and less assimilation. We tend to be a little more insular than groups who have been here for a long time.

I remember telling a (will not name them) Portuguese-American state representative in 2018 that I was a little concerned about the Republicans making inroads after 2016's enormous swing. This person basically brushed it off and yet here we are with another huge swing in 2020...

With MA totally uncompetitive, what's the worst thing for Democrats that could come of this?