What are the % chances of Trump running in 2024?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

At this time, I think there's a 90% chance that he will run in 2024. The GOP base is very unified of support for Trump and a supermajority of the base believe the deranged conspiracy theory that the election was "stolen"🤦‍♂️ and clearly want revenge against the Democrats so could be hyper energized if Trump choses to run for a third time.  

[Pink Panther]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

[AlterEgo]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

[DaleCooper]

A lot of it comes down to how he ages (believe it or not, obese people in their late 70s often don't have the energy or ability to campaign and be in the spotlight 24/7), how his reputation holds up without the platform of the presidency and his social media, and whether or not he's facing serious criminal charges by then. For now I'm saying it'll be 50/50 as far as whether he runs or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zero, but D's would win a landslide against him, I don't know why R users except for SN keep thinking that Trump is some unbeatable Titan, he would have won

AA and WC females and females are half the population aren't gonna vote for Trump. The same wives of the insurrectionists.

I bet that QAnon Viking mom voted for Biden due to fact he turned so quickly on Trumo

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

[Motorcity]

A lot of it comes down to how he ages (believe it or not, obese people in their late 70s often don't have the energy or ability to campaign and be in the spotlight 24/7), how his reputation holds up without the platform of the presidency and his social media, and whether or not he's facing serious criminal charges by then. For now I'm saying it'll be 50/50 as far as whether he runs or not.

I showed my mom clips from the debates

She said Biden looked and spoke his age (78) while Trump (74) seemed to have more energy and could pull maybe 65 with the way he talks.

Basically, Trump has lived a privilage life. Probably never had to do any manual labor. Plus he is rich and rich people live longer. He does seem to have the energy.

What I am saying is, people assume that Trump will have the mind of Biden in four years and combined with his obesed body could not run. But I could see

[SnowLabrador]

95%.

[SN2903]

At least 70 to 80%.

[Calthrina950]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

Presidential life expectancies have gone up in recent years, as life expectancies in general have increased and as advances in medicine have been made. Prior to Gerald Ford, there were only two Presidents who lived to the age of 90-John Adams and Herbert Hoover. Since the 1970s, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, and Carter have all lived into their 90s. I have little doubt that Obama will do so, W. Bush probably will, and Clinton may. If they do, then Clinton and W. Bush won't die until the 2040s and Obama, not until the 2050s. Obviously, reaching 90 is a milestone that is possible for both Trump and Biden.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

Presidential life expectancies have gone up in recent years, as life expectancies in general have increased and as advances in medicine have been made. Prior to Gerald Ford, there were only two Presidents who lived to the age of 90-John Adams and Herbert Hoover. Since the 1970s, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, and Carter have all lived into their 90s. I have little doubt that Obama will do so, W. Bush probably will, and Clinton may. If they do, then Clinton and W. Bush won't die until the 2040s and Obama, not until the 2050s. Obviously, reaching 90 is a milestone that is possible for both Trump and Biden.

Also both Trump's parents lived long.

[Calthrina950]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

Presidential life expectancies have gone up in recent years, as life expectancies in general have increased and as advances in medicine have been made. Prior to Gerald Ford, there were only two Presidents who lived to the age of 90-John Adams and Herbert Hoover. Since the 1970s, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, and Carter have all lived into their 90s. I have little doubt that Obama will do so, W. Bush probably will, and Clinton may. If they do, then Clinton and W. Bush won't die until the 2040s and Obama, not until the 2050s. Obviously, reaching 90 is a milestone that is possible for both Trump and Biden.

Also both Trump's parents lived long.

True. His father was 94 and his mother was 88 at the time of their deaths in 1999 and 2000 respectively, so Trump could very well live as least as long as they.

[DaleCooper]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

Presidential life expectancies have gone up in recent years, as life expectancies in general have increased and as advances in medicine have been made. Prior to Gerald Ford, there were only two Presidents who lived to the age of 90-John Adams and Herbert Hoover. Since the 1970s, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, and Carter have all lived into their 90s. I have little doubt that Obama will do so, W. Bush probably will, and Clinton may. If they do, then Clinton and W. Bush won't die until the 2040s and Obama, not until the 2050s. Obviously, reaching 90 is a milestone that is possible for both Trump and Biden.

Also both Trump's parents lived long.

True. His father was 94 and his mother was 88 at the time of their deaths in 1999 and 2000 respectively, so Trump could very well live as least as long as they.

I see your point, but it's not really a question of how many years a politician lives, it's a question of what shape they're in. Margaret Chase Smith of Maine lost reelection in part because of her perceived failing health due to age, and she lived 20 more years. Obese old people like Trump can live quite a long time if they're lucky, but the issues he might face include the inability to remain standing for as long as he regularly needs to, further decline in mental acuity (Reagan lived another 15 years after his likely onset of Alzheimer's in the late 80s), problems with mobility, etc.

Trump could live to be 90, but there's no guarantee he won't have slowed down significantly by the time he's pushing 80, either physically or mentally. There has been lots of speculation in and out of his inner circle, including Steve Bannon, that Trump is mentally ill and getting worse. He's also a survivor of a severe case of COVID-19, which have been shown to have longterm health consequences. We also have to pile on all the stress of losing the election, having his power stripped away from him, his platform revoked, his name further tarnished, his brand ruined, the legal walls closing in on him in New York and now potentially Georgia, and being a pariah in all social circles aside from Evangelical and Republican ones. Plus there have already been documented incidents of him struggling physically including when he needed to be helped down a ramp and when he was rushed to Walter Reed for undisclosed reasons––I don't think anyone believes that was for a spontaneous physical.

My point is, Trump is likely to be alive and relatively well in 2024, but he's much less likely to be in good enough health to withstand a presidential campaign in 2024 or be able to convince enough voters that he's well enough to serve again, which will probably affect whether he decides to run or not.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Given his physical condition, it's not even certain if Trump will be walking in 2024, let alone running.

[TomC]

100%. The only real question is: how much can he rai$e?

[Technocracy Timmy]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

The problem is that Donald Trump’s parents and 3 out of 4 of his grandparents all lived to be 84 or older. The genetic background for longevity he has is unreal.

[BlueSwan]

Very high. Only his health would possibly deter him, I'd say. Like 80%. I have NEVER believe the talking point that "Trump doesn't really want to be president". He clearly doesn't want to do the job itself, but he very much wants to be president. And he just demonstrated that you can easily be president without really doing the job itself.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

50-50: he either does or he doesn't

[NewYorkExpress]

100%

He'll also get 100% of the vote in the Republican Primaries too.

[beesley]

He clearly doesn't want to do the job itself, but he very much wants to be president.

This.

[Calthrina950]

97%, imo. Trump has a big ego, and doesn't like losing. He'll try to return to the White House.

Well, according to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, he has about a 15% chance of being dead before election day 2024. I suppose that doesn't preclude him from running and therefore doesn't negate the question and the response.

He does still have about a 7% chance of being dead by 1/1/2023, which probably would prevent him from running. That fact alone would make the likelihood that he doesn't run greater than 3%.

Eh, I highly doubt Trump is dead before 2029.

Presidential life expectancies have gone up in recent years, as life expectancies in general have increased and as advances in medicine have been made. Prior to Gerald Ford, there were only two Presidents who lived to the age of 90-John Adams and Herbert Hoover. Since the 1970s, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, and Carter have all lived into their 90s. I have little doubt that Obama will do so, W. Bush probably will, and Clinton may. If they do, then Clinton and W. Bush won't die until the 2040s and Obama, not until the 2050s. Obviously, reaching 90 is a milestone that is possible for both Trump and Biden.

Also both Trump's parents lived long.

True. His father was 94 and his mother was 88 at the time of their deaths in 1999 and 2000 respectively, so Trump could very well live as least as long as they.

I see your point, but it's not really a question of how many years a politician lives, it's a question of what shape they're in. Margaret Chase Smith of Maine lost reelection in part because of her perceived failing health due to age, and she lived 20 more years. Obese old people like Trump can live quite a long time if they're lucky, but the issues he might face include the inability to remain standing for as long as he regularly needs to, further decline in mental acuity (Reagan lived another 15 years after his likely onset of Alzheimer's in the late 80s), problems with mobility, etc.

Trump could live to be 90, but there's no guarantee he won't have slowed down significantly by the time he's pushing 80, either physically or mentally. There has been lots of speculation in and out of his inner circle, including Steve Bannon, that Trump is mentally ill and getting worse. He's also a survivor of a severe case of COVID-19, which have been shown to have longterm health consequences. We also have to pile on all the stress of losing the election, having his power stripped away from him, his platform revoked, his name further tarnished, his brand ruined, the legal walls closing in on him in New York and now potentially Georgia, and being a pariah in all social circles aside from Evangelical and Republican ones. Plus there have already been documented incidents of him struggling physically including when he needed to be helped down a ramp and when he was rushed to Walter Reed for undisclosed reasons––I don't think anyone believes that was for a spontaneous physical.

My point is, Trump is likely to be alive and relatively well in 2024, but he's much less likely to be in good enough health to withstand a presidential campaign in 2024 or be able to convince enough voters that he's well enough to serve again, which will probably affect whether he decides to run or not.

I'm not arguing that Trump will live as long as his parents did. I'm saying that he could. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump were to die before the 2024 election, or if his health were so poor that he would be unable to tolerate another grueling presidential campaign.