A time traveler comes to you in 2019 and says Trump will lose the popular vote by 4.5 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You get no other info.

What would be your thoughts?

[Hope For A New Era]

"uniform swing = 290"

[If my soul was made of stone]

The old classic "big 3 plus Arizona" map, but with the margins in individual states generally stronger for both parties. In 2019 I would've been too stuck in uniform swing to consider Georgia flipping at that NPV.

[Skill and Chance]

I would be especially surprised by GA and the swing to Trump in FL.  The narrowness of Biden's PA win would also register as a bit surprising.  AZ I would expect to be Trump by <1%, but the slight Biden overperformance to flip it wouldn't really be shocking.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump didn't win on his own in 2016, he won with the help of Gary Johnson that's why he got impeached for trying to investigate the Hunter Biden story and tried to get Mark Cuban to run as 3rd party spoiler

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

GA flips from reality, FL is still a 2-3% GOP win. AZ and NC are under 1%.  PA is a 2-3% D win, MI 4-5%, MN 5-6%, WI 1-2%.

[Ogre Mage]

I would think that the election was somewhat closer than I would have liked, but we probably won.  The Traitor Tot could win the EC while losing the popular vote by 4.5%, but chances are low.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would have expected the 279, bare minimum victory map for Biden.

[Motorcity]

I'd assume a Democrat that was either Biden, Sanders, or Warren wins 278 blue wall and FL/NC/AZ

[ProgressiveModerate]

Prolly a Dem win with all the 2016 states + the big 3 and AZ; basically what the Atlas consensus was for most of the 2020 cycle.

[Sir Mohamed]

Either the 278 freiwall or Trump narrowly wins the EC with 270 EVs by only losing PA and MI compared to 2016. I wouldn't have expected AZ and especially GA to flip with an NPV margin of less than 5%.

Throughout 2019 and into early 2020 before COVID hit, my prediction for most of the time was the freiwall plus AZ with Biden as nominee, which would have resulted in a 289-249 win. My NPV estimation was Biden by 5-6%.

[Non Swing Voter]

My first thought would be sadness for how stupid this country is because it wasn't a total and complete blowout.

[here2view]

290-248, Democrat picks up Rust Belt, Arizona, and NE-02

[Chips]

Either the 278 freiwall or Trump narrowly wins the EC with 270 EVs by only losing PA and MI compared to 2016. I wouldn't have expected AZ and especially GA to flip with an NPV margin of less than 5%.

Throughout 2019 and into early 2020 before COVID hit, my prediction for most of the time was the freiwall plus AZ with Biden as nominee, which would have resulted in a 289-249 win. My NPV estimation was Biden by 5-6%.